Breaking down the Cats and Gators

[UKErik]

For Mark Stoops and Kentucky football, it doesn't get much bigger than this. The Cats, fresh off a 23-13 win at South Carolina (a game most pegged UK to lose), head home to face #20 Florida in front of a sold out Commonwealth Stadium! A win could move Kentucky into the top 25. More importantly, a UK victory would give the Cats an edge over Florida in the SEC East race. Unlike most seasons, this UK/Florida matchup isn't lopsided in the least in terms of talent and athleticism. That isn't to say Florida doesn't have good football players and plenty of athletes. They do. So does Kentucky. This game kind of reminds me of the opportunity UK had against Georgia last season. Kentucky came close in that one, but lost at the gun. Stoops has made unbelievably big strides at UK. Last season, UK beat South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State in the same season for the first time in forever. The next step is to start beating the Vols, Dawgs, and Gators.

Line: Kentucky +2.5 (Caesar's)

Series: Florida leads 50-17

Kickoff/Television: 7:30pm/SEC Network

Stats
Total Offense: Kentucky 102nd (347.7), Florida 121st (286.0)
Total Defense: Kentucky 52nd (346.7), Florida 100th (437.5)

Kentucky offense vs. Florida defense: Slight advantage Florida
Looking at the Cats offense vs. the Florida "D", one matchup stands out more than any other...UK's offensive tackles vs. Florida's defensive ends in pass protection. Kentucky's tackles are significantly more effective as run blockers than pass protectors. Florida has excellent athleticism off the edge. On obvious passing downs, how will Eddie Gran account for Florida's ends? Some screens? Maybe a delayed handoff or two. Maybe he'll help with a tight end or keep a back in? In the secondary, Florida could be without all-everything corner Duke Dawson. Henderson (has a couple of pick sixes already this season) and Wilson are excellent athletes, but both are freshman. Kentucky has some excellent athletes of their own at WR, but the guys that play the most (Juice, Walker, and Bone) aren't going to run past the Gators very often. UK might have an edge in between the hash marks. UK's o-line strength is on the interior. The Gators tackles and backers have struggled at times this season. Can Snell and company continue that trend? For those that believe Gran has held some back so far, this is the weekend to bring out the kitchen sink. It's hard to see UK sustaining many drives considering the athletic ability UF has at corner combined with their edge against UK's tackles. While UK might have an edge on the interior, the Wildcat isn't going to get it done. Conventional wisdom says UK will play field position football while taking few chances. Bottom line, Florida's defense hasn't been very good so far (just two games). Neither has UK's offense. Your guess as to who bucks that trend is as good as mine. I imagine UK's goal will be to avoid turnovers and be patient. Hopefully, they can hit a couple of big plays. BTW, I think CJ Conrad will have a mismatch anytime Gran wants it.

Kentucky defense vs. Florida offense: Advantage Kentucky
The Gators offense has been mostly a train wreck. Michigan shut the Gators down completely. Tennessee (with a defense that isn't as good as UK's, IMO) held Florida in check until the 4th quarter. I think UK's front seven has the edge over Florida's o-front. The Gators freshman QB, Feliepe Franks, throws a LOT of short stuff. That has to concern Coach House. Last weekend, Bentley of South Carolina completed 16 consecutive passes at one point, virtually all of which was check-down/short routes. If you're House, you don't want to give Florida easy opportunities with short passes, but you don't want to risk Florida getting a cheap six on you either. I imagine UK will play conservative football until Florida forces otherwise. The Gator running game has struggled big time (117th in the country). That should continue against UK's #3 ranked rush defense. The two biggest concerns with this matchup from a UK perspective; 1) don't give up a cheap six, and 2) don't give away first downs via the short passing game. Cleveland is the most likely to get behind UK's defense. I think Toney might be the biggest threat to take something short and turn it into a big gain. Bottom line, the key here is pretty obvious. Bend but don't break isn't popular with fans, but against a struggling offense, it makes sense. UK just needs to avoid the big plays and force FG attempts on red zone trips. They should be able to do both.

Special Teams: Slight advantage Florida
Kicker Eddy Pineiro is one of the nations best. He's drilled 24-29 career field goals (36/36 on PAT's). Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis is also among the best in the country. I give UF a slight edge because of Cleveland in the KR game. With that being said, it's just a matter of time before King/Bowden return one for six!

Florida will win if...they get the run game going and win the turnover battle. The short passing game might help them between the 20's, but it won't do much in the redzone. On defense, keep UK in 3rd and intermediate or long (gives their edge rushers a chance to do their jobs).

Kentucky will win if...Stephen Johnson gets the job done on third down. Whether it's via a pass or run, Johnson has to do what he did at South Carolina. Defensively, force FG attempts on sustained drives and avoid the big play.

Prediction...Kentucky 20 Florida 16...I've gone back and forth with this one for the past three days. I think Kentucky "should" win, but the UK offense hasn't been good enough to warrant a lot of confidence. Hopefully, the Cats can force Franks into a couple of freshman mistakes and make winning plays late.

Previous Picks
(3-0 S/U, 1-1 ATS)
Kentucky 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
Kentucky 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)
Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21 (UK +6.5)

GBB!!!

 

[Sparkaces1]

Nice write up. I mean you have to think that Franks will make some mistakes in his first game on the road at night time. If there was ever a time for a home field advantage it should be Saturday night. I think that will be a major factor in the game!

 

[KintuckyWildCayuts]

Lets go Cats!!!

 

[maysvilleky]

Good write up UKErik as always. IMO it will be whoever wins the turnover battle again. I think both offenses will struggle to score, so it will be whoever creates an opportunity with a TO. In my game prediction for Old Red...I predicted UK is the one that has the TO and loses because of it. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[_ukcat]

Nice write up. I mean you have to think that Franks will make some mistakes in his first game on the road at night time. If there was ever a time for a home field advantage it should be Saturday night. I think that will be a major factor in the game!

Really agree with you on the Value of the Crowd for this game, a freshman QB on his 1st True Road game test. The crowd needs to rock CWS to rattle him!!!

 

[mrschwump]

For Mark Stoops and Kentucky football, it doesn't get much bigger than this. The Cats, fresh off a 23-13 win at South Carolina (a game most pegged UK to lose), head home to face #20 Florida in front of a sold out Commonwealth Stadium! A win could move Kentucky into the top 25. More importantly, a UK victory would give the Cats an edge over Florida in the SEC East race. Unlike most seasons, this UK/Florida matchup isn't lopsided in the least in terms of talent and athleticism. That isn't to say Florida doesn't have good football players and plenty of athletes. They do. So does Kentucky. This game kind of reminds me of the opportunity UK had against Georgia last season. Kentucky came close in that one, but lost at the gun. Stoops has made unbelievably big strides at UK. Last season, UK beat South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State in the same season for the first time in forever. The next step is to start beating the Vols, Dawgs, and Gators.

Line: Kentucky +2.5 (Caesar's)

Series: Florida leads 50-17

Kickoff/Television: 7:30pm/SEC Network

Stats
Total Offense: Kentucky 102nd (347.7), Florida 121st (286.0)
Total Defense: Kentucky 52nd (346.7), Florida 100th (437.5)

Kentucky offense vs. Florida defense: Slight advantage Florida
Looking at the Cats offense vs. the Florida "D", one matchup stands out more than any other...UK's offensive tackles vs. Florida's defensive ends in pass protection. Kentucky's tackles are significantly more effective as run blockers than pass protectors. Florida has excellent athleticism off the edge. On obvious passing downs, how will Eddie Gran account for Florida's ends? Some screens? Maybe a delayed handoff or two. Maybe he'll help with a tight end or keep a back in? In the secondary, Florida could be without all-everything corner Duke Dawson. Henderson (has a couple of pick sixes already this season) and Wilson are excellent athletes, but both are freshman. Kentucky has some excellent athletes of their own at WR, but the guys that play the most (Juice, Walker, and Bone) aren't going to run past the Gators very often. UK might have an edge in between the hash marks. UK's o-line strength is on the interior. The Gators tackles and backers have struggled at times this season. Can Snell and company continue that trend? For those that believe Gran has held some back so far, this is the weekend to bring out the kitchen sink. It's hard to see UK sustaining many drives considering the athletic ability UF has at corner combined with their edge against UK's tackles. While UK might have an edge on the interior, the Wildcat isn't going to get it done. Conventional wisdom says UK will play field position football while taking few chances. Bottom line, Florida's defense hasn't been very good so far (just two games). Neither has UK's offense. Your guess as to who bucks that trend is as good as mine. I imagine UK's goal will be to avoid turnovers and be patient. Hopefully, they can hit a couple of big plays. BTW, I think CJ Conrad will have a mismatch anytime Gran wants it.

Kentucky defense vs. Florida offense: Advantage Kentucky
The Gators offense has been mostly a train wreck. Michigan shut the Gators down completely. Tennessee (with a defense that isn't as good as UK's, IMO) held Florida in check until the 4th quarter. I think UK's front seven has the edge over Florida's o-front. The Gators freshman QB, Feliepe Franks, throws a LOT of short stuff. That has to concern Coach House. Last weekend, Bentley of South Carolina completed 16 consecutive passes at one point, virtually all of which was check-down/short routes. If you're House, you don't want to give Florida easy opportunities with short passes, but you don't want to risk Florida getting a cheap six on you either. I imagine UK will play conservative football until Florida forces otherwise. The Gator running game has struggled big time (117th in the country). That should continue against UK's #3 ranked rush defense. The two biggest concerns with this matchup from a UK perspective; 1) don't give up a cheap six, and 2) don't give away first downs via the short passing game. Cleveland is the most likely to get behind UK's defense. I think Toney might be the biggest threat to take something short and turn it into a big gain. Bottom line, the key here is pretty obvious. Bend but don't break isn't popular with fans, but against a struggling offense, it makes sense. UK just needs to avoid the big plays and force FG attempts on red zone trips. They should be able to do both.

Special Teams: Slight advantage Florida
Kicker Eddy Pineiro is one of the nations best. He's drilled 24-29 career field goals (36/36 on PAT's). Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis is also among the best in the country. I give UF a slight edge because of Cleveland in the KR game. With that being said, it's just a matter of time before King/Bowden return one for six!

Florida will win if...they get the run game going and win the turnover battle. The short passing game might help them between the 20's, but it won't do much in the redzone. On defense, keep UK in 3rd and intermediate or long (gives their edge rushers a chance to do their jobs).

Kentucky will win if...Stephen Johnson gets the job done on third down. Whether it's via a pass or run, Johnson has to do what he did at South Carolina. Defensively, force FG attempts on sustained drives and avoid the big play.

Prediction...Kentucky 20 Florida 16...I've gone back and forth with this one for the past three days. I think Kentucky "should" win, but the UK offense hasn't been good enough to warrant a lot of confidence. Hopefully, the Cats can force Franks into a couple of freshman mistakes and make winning plays late.

Previous Picks
(3-0 S/U, 1-1 ATS)
Kentucky 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
Kentucky 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)
Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21 (UK +6.5)

GBB!!!

UK's lack of top end speed at WR is killer to me. I really hope UK can find a way to win this game but I just think they're not there yet. UF 21-17.

 

[UKErik]

That lack of speed at WR makes things tough schwump, no doubt. Nothing beats getting a couple of easy touchdowns every weekend. Maybe Bowden or Epps will get an opportunity to go deep.

GBB!!!

 

[Nuke99m]

That lack of speed at WR makes things tough schwump, no doubt. Nothing beats getting a couple of easy touchdowns every weekend. Maybe Bowden or Epps will get an opportunity to go deep.

GBB!!!

Any heard anything about Josh Ali? I really thought he might contribute some this year.

 

[mrschwump]

That lack of speed at WR makes things tough schwump, no doubt. Nothing beats getting a couple of easy touchdowns every weekend. Maybe Bowden or Epps will get an opportunity to go deep.

GBB!!!

Yeah Erik, I'm hoping the young guys emerge into deep threats. I like the toughness UK's WR show, if they were just faster/quicker.

 

[jgraf_1]

Really shocking to see that overall record of 17-50 versus Florida. This was a close rivalry before the Spurrier era at UF. 17-20 through 1986. You think this is UK's best chance in years! But we all thought that in 14 and 15 as well. You gotta get them one of these years while they are down compared to what they were under Spurrier and Meyer. Eventually they will get a dynamite offensive mind again and tear through the SEC.

In 2015, the team felt the pressure. You could sense it in the stadium that night. It was all business and no joy. They wanted to win so bad and played well but also made crucial mistakes. Hopefully UK plays loose and free like they did against USC last week. Don't worry about 1986-2016. That wasn't this team! This team can beat Florida!

 

[uofkFTW18]

Don't think either team scores 20 honestly. This is going to be an ugly game, probably similar to our last home game against them a few years ago. I expect a score along the lines of 13-10 or 17-13. At first I predicted UK to be the winner, but the closer I get to Saturday the more doubtful I become. I guess I'll still go with the Cats in a close one.

 

[mrschwump]

Any heard anything about Josh Ali? I really thought he might contribute some this year.

I think he's had a handful of snaps, don't think he's been thrown to.

 

[UKUGA]

Series: Florida leads 50-17

So, at one point, this series was 20-17, in favor of Florida.

(This is sort of like considering the Indians record before winning 25 of 26).

 

[Soupbean]

For Mark Stoops and Kentucky football, it doesn't get much bigger than this. The Cats, fresh off a 23-13 win at South Carolina (a game most pegged UK to lose), head home to face #20 Florida in front of a sold out Commonwealth Stadium! A win could move Kentucky into the top 25. More importantly, a UK victory would give the Cats an edge over Florida in the SEC East race. Unlike most seasons, this UK/Florida matchup isn't lopsided in the least in terms of talent and athleticism. That isn't to say Florida doesn't have good football players and plenty of athletes. They do. So does Kentucky. This game kind of reminds me of the opportunity UK had against Georgia last season. Kentucky came close in that one, but lost at the gun. Stoops has made unbelievably big strides at UK. Last season, UK beat South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State in the same season for the first time in forever. The next step is to start beating the Vols, Dawgs, and Gators.

Line: Kentucky +2.5 (Caesar's)

Series: Florida leads 50-17

Kickoff/Television: 7:30pm/SEC Network

Stats
Total Offense: Kentucky 102nd (347.7), Florida 121st (286.0)
Total Defense: Kentucky 52nd (346.7), Florida 100th (437.5)

Kentucky offense vs. Florida defense: Slight advantage Florida
Looking at the Cats offense vs. the Florida "D", one matchup stands out more than any other...UK's offensive tackles vs. Florida's defensive ends in pass protection. Kentucky's tackles are significantly more effective as run blockers than pass protectors. Florida has excellent athleticism off the edge. On obvious passing downs, how will Eddie Gran account for Florida's ends? Some screens? Maybe a delayed handoff or two. Maybe he'll help with a tight end or keep a back in? In the secondary, Florida could be without all-everything corner Duke Dawson. Henderson (has a couple of pick sixes already this season) and Wilson are excellent athletes, but both are freshman. Kentucky has some excellent athletes of their own at WR, but the guys that play the most (Juice, Walker, and Bone) aren't going to run past the Gators very often. UK might have an edge in between the hash marks. UK's o-line strength is on the interior. The Gators tackles and backers have struggled at times this season. Can Snell and company continue that trend? For those that believe Gran has held some back so far, this is the weekend to bring out the kitchen sink. It's hard to see UK sustaining many drives considering the athletic ability UF has at corner combined with their edge against UK's tackles. While UK might have an edge on the interior, the Wildcat isn't going to get it done. Conventional wisdom says UK will play field position football while taking few chances. Bottom line, Florida's defense hasn't been very good so far (just two games). Neither has UK's offense. Your guess as to who bucks that trend is as good as mine. I imagine UK's goal will be to avoid turnovers and be patient. Hopefully, they can hit a couple of big plays. BTW, I think CJ Conrad will have a mismatch anytime Gran wants it.

Kentucky defense vs. Florida offense: Advantage Kentucky
The Gators offense has been mostly a train wreck. Michigan shut the Gators down completely. Tennessee (with a defense that isn't as good as UK's, IMO) held Florida in check until the 4th quarter. I think UK's front seven has the edge over Florida's o-front. The Gators freshman QB, Feliepe Franks, throws a LOT of short stuff. That has to concern Coach House. Last weekend, Bentley of South Carolina completed 16 consecutive passes at one point, virtually all of which was check-down/short routes. If you're House, you don't want to give Florida easy opportunities with short passes, but you don't want to risk Florida getting a cheap six on you either. I imagine UK will play conservative football until Florida forces otherwise. The Gator running game has struggled big time (117th in the country). That should continue against UK's #3 ranked rush defense. The two biggest concerns with this matchup from a UK perspective; 1) don't give up a cheap six, and 2) don't give away first downs via the short passing game. Cleveland is the most likely to get behind UK's defense. I think Toney might be the biggest threat to take something short and turn it into a big gain. Bottom line, the key here is pretty obvious. Bend but don't break isn't popular with fans, but against a struggling offense, it makes sense. UK just needs to avoid the big plays and force FG attempts on red zone trips. They should be able to do both.

Special Teams: Slight advantage Florida
Kicker Eddy Pineiro is one of the nations best. He's drilled 24-29 career field goals (36/36 on PAT's). Kentucky's Austin MacGinnis is also among the best in the country. I give UF a slight edge because of Cleveland in the KR game. With that being said, it's just a matter of time before King/Bowden return one for six!

Florida will win if...they get the run game going and win the turnover battle. The short passing game might help them between the 20's, but it won't do much in the redzone. On defense, keep UK in 3rd and intermediate or long (gives their edge rushers a chance to do their jobs).

Kentucky will win if...Stephen Johnson gets the job done on third down. Whether it's via a pass or run, Johnson has to do what he did at South Carolina. Defensively, force FG attempts on sustained drives and avoid the big play.

Prediction...Kentucky 20 Florida 16...I've gone back and forth with this one for the past three days. I think Kentucky "should" win, but the UK offense hasn't been good enough to warrant a lot of confidence. Hopefully, the Cats can force Franks into a couple of freshman mistakes and make winning plays late.

Previous Picks
(3-0 S/U, 1-1 ATS)
Kentucky 34 Southern Miss 20 (UK -10.5)
Kentucky 48 Eastern Kentucky 10 (no line)
Kentucky 24 South Carolina 21 (UK +6.5)

GBB!!!

Great breakdown Erik. I think you are spot on the key to our O vs their D being to handle the edge rush. And I love that you pointed out the delay/draw running plays as an answer. It had seemed that had almost gone away from our playbook until we used it a couple of times last week. Snell and especially King would make some big plays on delays especially when we're spreading the field and if we're mixing up our play calls run/pass like we did in the first half at USC.

I think the strategy is to do exactly what we did against USC. Continue to mix up the play calls run/pass especially on first down. Continue to utilize the short passing game/screen plays to kill the rush because that really is their ace in the hole to shut us down.

I just hope that if we get the lead in the second half that we keep mixing up plays and not get tight and predictable tend to do. I know the coaches like the idea of killing clock an shortening the game with the run but think we sometimes do this too early and kill our own ability to score and create a cushion. We were moving the ball on them last week but got real tight in the second half and were fortunate they missed some kicks and Stephen bailed us out with a big scramble late. You burn clock and ice games by moving the chains and burning more downs. We will have to be able to pass the ball on first down and mix up plays in the second half to do that against UF. Trust Johnson and the boys to manage that. Can still be conservative and safe using the short pass. We get tight and run predictable against them and give them more chances to come back and we lose IMO. We continue to mix it up, limit the effectiveness of the rush and do that for 60 minutes and we win by 14.

 

[Nuke99m]

Last time we beat Florida video. I want the win this year bad.

 

[fabcat]

I see us having to keep a back in to chip on the DE. Our tackles struggle with fast DE's in pass protection. We have to be able to run the ball on them. Cannot become one dimential. I look for Gran to use the Screen game again to help slow down Florida'a pass rush. Special teams will be huge in this game as well. Overall if we can eliminate the big play and make Florida drive the field on us for points we have a great shot at ending this ridiculous streak.

 

[Deeeefense]

I think the difference in this game will be experience and depth. I'm pretty sure around 16 of Florida's 22 starters are either freshmen, RS freshmen or true sophomores. With 9 players suspended and 4 more questionable for Saturday, I think Florida is still trying to find itself in a lot of areas, and having to deal with a patchwork lineup. None of that bodes well for the Gators playing on the road against a hostile crowd. If they have players leaving the game at key spots it could be really bad for them as well.

I would love to see us throw the bomb right out of the box on the first play. Regardless if it was completed or not, it would set the tone for the day and require the Florida defense to play a little more honest than they might like to against our running attack.

The CATS are an experienced, deep and talented team, playing at home I like our chances:

Florida: 10
Kentucky 20

 

[fvanhoose]

I'm a couple of months away from being 64. I can remember UK beating Florida. Lots of Kentucky fans can't. How sad is that? I've been witness to many "chances" to win we managed to blow. We picked them off SEVEN times and still lost. That is just one of the many crazy things which have happened versus Florida. I've seen lots of "laughers" where Spurrier took delight in running up the score. I will admit, when it comes to Florida I have the "UK fan mentality" of waiting for the bottom to fall out. Bad play, bad call, bad something or other which dooms us.

People are talking about how important winning this Saturday is for the team and it is. It is more important than my own paranoia where Florida is concerned. But, I will say this for us older fans who CAN remember beating Florida and for those who can't because of their "blessed" youth. Beating Florida Saturday would be a transformative win, not just for the UK football program, not just for this year but for us fans, for some of us, a life time of frustrations to the point where we cannot even contemplate a win against Florida. I don't care if we are up 45-0 with 2 minutes left and the ball. I'll still be subconsciously waiting for the "bottom" to fall out.

A win against Florida on Saturday changes more things about Kentucky football and the psyche of Kentucky fans than most realize. For the first time in a long, long time I might even have some modicum of optimism going into this game. But it won't mean anything until the final gun sounds and we have more points on the board than Florida.

 

[fabcat]

I'm a couple of months away from being 64. I can remember UK beating Florida. Lots of Kentucky fans can't. How sad is that? I've been witness to many "chances" we managed to blow. We picked them off SEVEN times and still lost. That is just one of the many crazy things which have happened versus Florida. I've seen lots of "laughers" where Spurrier took delight in running up the score. I will admit, when it comes to Florida I have the "UK fan mentality" of waiting for the bottom to fall out. Bad play, bad call, bad something or other which dooms us.

People are talking about how important winning this Saturday is for the team and it is. It is more important than my own paranoia where Florida is concerned. But, I will say this for us older fans who CAN remember beating Florida and for those who can't because of their "blessed" youth. Beating Florida Saturday would be a transformative win, not just for the UK football program, not just for this year but for us fans, for some of us, a life time of frustrations to the point where we cannot even contemplate a win against Florida. I don't care if we are up 45-0 with 2 minutes left and the ball. I'll still be subconsciously waiting for the "bottom" to fall out.

A win against Florida on Saturday changes more things about Kentucky football and the psyche of Kentucky fans than most realize. For the first time in a long, long time I might even have some modicum of optimism going into this game. But it won't mean anything until the final gun sounds and we have more points on the board than Florida.

Amen Brother!!! Been there with you. Only 9 yrs your younger so yeah, I've seen a lot of bad in this series. Also, remember the good. But man it's been a long long time.

 

[PhattyJ4UK]

I think we need to apply pressure to the QB early. Get him tatted and thinking and let commonwealth pick it up from there.

First conference road game. Coming off an emotional victory. Probably nervous about losing to Kentucky. I want the UK LOGO tattooed on his shoulder pad.

 

[Oldtrainer]

As stated in "Lets go on record" post. CATS 17 Gators 10.

 

[mrschwump]

Re the UF QB Franks...he originally committed to LSU then decommitted when Miles was fired. Big, strong guy with a big arm.

 

[catswillwin]

At the 51 second mark the video shows the series at 20-17 Florida and that Florida had won the last six. So at one time we held a 16-12 series lead. That is a 38-1 record for Florida against us over the last 39 years. Ouch! Lets hope we can start our own streak Saturday night!

Last time we beat Florida video. I want the win this year bad.

View embedded media

 

[ukalumni00]

I re-watched the SC game and Gran called a very conservative second half. KY could have very well scored another 10-14 in that game as well as another 100 yards. I think the offensive struggles/stats are a bit exaggerated because it is clear as day Gran played an extremely vanilla scheme the first two games and held back against SC as well. When he got creative in the first half (minus the first quarter where mistakes was the issue) he pounded SC defense.

Franks was hot garbage in the HS all star game and is not a world beater now. Very strong arm and in time could be great, but nothing special right now. KY's defense will pose a big challenge for him. Plus it will be his and several of UF's Freshman's first real challenge on the road in maybe CWS's best environment since the 07 LSU game.

After 30 years, its time for the breaks to go KY's way.

 

[UKUGA]

I re-watched the SC game and Gran called a very conservative second half. KY could have very well scored another 10-14 in that game as well as another 100 yards. I think the offensive struggles/stats are a bit exaggerated because it is clear as day Gran played an extremely vanilla scheme the first two games and held back against SC as well. When he got creative in the first half (minus the first quarter where mistakes was the issue) he pounded SC defense.


After 30 years, its time for the breaks to go KY's way.

I agree that they have been focused on going all out in this game.

Surviving/beating SC with a mild game plan was a huge boon, both to our season (road SEC win) and to what we can do against Florida on Saturday.

It probably didn't hurt that Gran was very familiar with the SC defensive coordinator.

But let's face it, using the dual tight-ends so effectively was huge. And, how about that Steve Johnson run on 3rd and GAME? Everybody knows we do something stupid on that play 95/100, especially in a road SEC game.

All that, 3-0/(1-0) and still haven't shown much on offense.

 

[Deli owl]

21-10 FL
Sorry but not quite ready yet I don't believe. Hope to be wrong as I'll be at the game.

 

[anon_7tbtqcx308nxh]

I re-watched the SC game and Gran called a very conservative second half. KY could have very well scored another 10-14 in that game as well as another 100 yards. I think the offensive struggles/stats are a bit exaggerated because it is clear as day Gran played an extremely vanilla scheme the first two games and held back against SC as well. When he got creative in the first half (minus the first quarter where mistakes was the issue) he pounded SC defense.

If this offense had a college basketball equivalent it would be what Tony Bennett does at UVA. Slow the pace, minimize possessions, etc.

 

[floboi03]

Heck with all this conservative crap, lets just rock UF just like MSU did to LSU last wkend and make a statement to the entire cfb world!!

 

[UKSanders]

I think we need to apply pressure to the QB early. Get him tatted and thinking and let commonwealth pick it up from there.

First conference road game. Coming off an emotional victory. Probably nervous about losing to Kentucky. I want the UK LOGO tattooed on his shoulder pad.

Totally agree with trying to rattle him early.

 

[docholiday51]

I can remember when the UF games were much like the USC games of today.Those were games we had a chance to win even in years that we weren't very good.(not quite the Vandy level but close)

It is really mind blowing when you stop and think about the last 30 years.Consider the number of players and coaches that have come and gone here during that time and we couldn't accidentally win one game

This week we have a real shot to win but make no mistake it won't be easy,we can't give up anything cheap,their team speed on defense worries me more than anything else.One poster above said he didn't think either team would score 20,I disagree I think it will take 25+ to win this one

 

[LouievileKat]

Watched the Tennessee Florida game last night. Florida is going to be able to get pressure. How Stephen Johnson and the cats handle it will likely define the outcome of the game.

 

[Wvvrn]

I think the middle screen that we ran to Conrad vs SC will be open and could result in some big plays if we can get the timing right. Use their speed on the edge against them and take advantage of a mismatch with their LBs. The PA quick pass up the seam that we saw against SM should also be available if we have rushing success up the middle. Conrad is such a weapon and has made some key plays in every game so far. I expect that to continue.

I also expect us to get the ball to King a little more to give SJ an outlet if our OL is struggling. He made a couple big 3rd down catches last game and can make some plays for us if we get him in space. He's shown that he can be a reliable receiver. I think it's just a matter of time before he catches a short one and takes it to the house. Saturday would be an excellent time to do it.

Let's hope we can get Bowden involved some more to give us another homerun threat. He's due to have a breakout game, would be perfect if it happens in an upset of the Gators. I'm sure there are some plays for him that we haven't seen yet.

The biggest difference this year is our QB. Having a legitimate dual threat guy is something we've rarely had against the Gators and they have feasted on poor QB play and mistakes. Our tackles may struggle in pass protection so it will be very important for SJ feel that outside pressure and make quick decisions on whether to tuck and run or throw it away.

We can't afford to take big sacks and get too far behind the chains. We've historically been terrible with having in opportune TOs and beating ourselves because of the Gator pass pressure. SJ doesn't have to put up excellent numbers, just make the easy reads and don't turn it over. That's exactly what he's done so far.

Floridas DBs love to jump routes and gamble for INTs so he needs to be very aware of how they're playing the WRs. If they're too aggressive and the OL can give him enough time, a double move type of route may open up as the game progresses. This is something Gran can set them up for early in the game.

As for Snell and the running game, patience. Keep chipping away and wear them down even if we're not super successful in the beginning. UT gashed them late in that game and I think we'll do the same. Need to keep them on the field as much as possible. Thankfully this has been UKs biggest strength on O so far.

The D just needs to continue what they've been doing. Stuff the run and force Franks to sustain long drives with short passes. I don't think he'll be able to do it consistently. It will be a tough environment for the young QB so I think we'll have some opportunities to force some turnovers. The team that wins the TO battle will win this one imo.

We need our D to really rise to the occasion like they did against SC and help the O out. It would be amazing if we could flip the tables on UF and actually score some defensive TDs ourselves.

Field position and STs will once again be huge in such an even matchup. I expect another close, grind it out type of game with the outcome hinging on who makes the fewest mistakes. This appears to be our best shot to knock off the Gators in my lifetime. I'm hoping like hell we can actually get it done this time. GBB!

 

[StubbornPenny]

Great write up. I agree, if there's EVER a time to open the play book, it's NOW. Split Conrad out wide. Draws to get their DEs out of position. Put in burners to go long just to make the DBs run. Feature Bowden. Rollouts to get the DE and DT's running (this was brilliant against LSU in 2007). Show Florida stuff they haven't seen before.

Same on defense. Rookie QB? Zone blitz. Disguise your pressure. Back out of blitzes. Maybe even a Westry blitz in there somewhere And above all, pressure from the DE/Rush LBs is vital. We have such a history of making rookie or backup QBs look amazing, I want Franks to look like a high schooler.

It may be wishful thinking, but my nightmare scenario is 30 runs from the wildcat where Florida doesn't sweat it.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Screens, draws, and shovel passes to hurt their upfield rush. Get a few good gains there and theyll have to respect it; toning down their rush just a tad.

I also think theres a decent chance we can handle their pass rush. I think Landon will more than hold his own and surprise some people.

 

[maverick1rw]

I agree with UKEric 97.999% but think our special teams have a slight advantage.

 

[UKCatnNC]

Thank you UKErik. I hope you are correct. We have been dominated by florida so long that I cannot predict a score. I do think we will play a good game. GO CATS!!

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

That lack of speed at WR makes things tough schwump, no doubt. Nothing beats getting a couple of easy touchdowns every weekend. Maybe Bowden or Epps will get an opportunity to go deep.

GBB!!!

Tennessee hurt Florida the last 2 seasons with throws over the middle of the field, to their TE's and WR's running square ins and slants. This formula could help UK tremendously. Hope coach Gran sees this, I am sure he has.

 

[cardkilla]

I've got a very good feeling about the offense on Saturday. I think the training wheels come off Saturday and we see what this offense can do. I believe Bowden has a remarkable day and scores his first collegiate touchdown!

Prediction: UK 27 Florida 17 (Cats get a score from special teams)

 

[UKCatnNC]

While I will not make a prediction, I feel that Stephen Johnson will play an excellent game. GO CATS!!

 

[ukalumni00]

Watched the Tennessee Florida game last night. Florida is going to be able to get pressure. How Stephen Johnson and the cats handle it will likely define the outcome of the game.

Saw that as well. Think KY gives up a few sacks, but Gran will keep them on their toes with some screens and also help with double TE sets along with a TE in the backfield. Can see Johnson have some success with a few QB draws as well. Would love to see some read option to really make their ends work hard, but its not really something Gran has installed unless he has been working on it with Bowden and shows it against UF.