Anyone else starting to feel like the program is at a crossroads?

[gamecockcat]

The past handful of years, we've had quite a bit of success and each year seemingly built on the previous year(s). With NIL, the staff continuity issues, disappointing results on the field, unexpectedly high number of recruiting misses, etc., I'm afraid we may see the program take a huge step back and may soon be fighting Vandy annually to stay out of the SECE cellar. The future looks much more uncertain and bleaker than it has in several years, imo.

I love college football and, especially, UK. However, if CFB continues down this road where every player is a free agent every year and only the schools willing to buy a good team are able to compete, they may lose me. I find that I don't watch nearly as much CFB as I used to and that trend started just a few years ago. Look at most of the games on TV and there are more and more empty seats. Economics has something to do with that, but, if CFB becomes OAD like CBB (transfers to other schools, not NBA for CFB), then I'll probably lose interest in following CFB in the same way I've almost completely lost interest in CBB (I watch, in total, maybe 4 games a year of CBB).

I hope the admin and Stoops & Co. can right the ship and not see wholesale transfers out this season. I hope the recruiting picks up dramatically and I'm being somewhat of a Chicken Little. But, it seems like it could be a really bad offseason for the team and we may find ourselves hoping to get to a bowl game more often than not versus 'how do we get to Atlanta' or 'finish 2nd in the SECE'.

 

[_ukcat]

Totally agree. Even before the season started I had looked at how next year schedule was setup and who UK was going to lose to the draft and graduation. Next year was going to be a slight fall back year and was hoping this season would keep the ball rolling to over come next season which I felt was going to be a 7 win season at the most. Now with how this season has went into the dumpster,recruiting falling apart and portal loss going to hit UK hard(IMO) UK staring at 4/5 wins next season. Unless there major change in Stoops philosophy and UK gets some major players from Portal to come in CATS going to be back to square one.

 

[mrschwump]

The past handful of years, we've had quite a bit of success and each year seemingly built on the previous year(s). With NIL, the staff continuity issues, disappointing results on the field, unexpectedly high number of recruiting misses, etc., I'm afraid we may see the program take a huge step back and may soon be fighting Vandy annually to stay out of the SECE cellar. The future looks much more uncertain and bleaker than it has in several years, imo.

I love college football and, especially, UK. However, if CFB continues down this road where every player is a free agent every year and only the schools willing to buy a good team are able to compete, they may lose me. I find that I don't watch nearly as much CFB as I used to and that trend started just a few years ago. Look at most of the games on TV and there are more and more empty seats. Economics has something to do with that, but, if CFB becomes OAD like CBB (transfers to other schools, not NBA for CFB), then I'll probably lose interest in following CFB in the same way I've almost completely lost interest in CBB (I watch, in total, maybe 4 games a year of CBB).

I hope the admin and Stoops & Co. can right the ship and not see wholesale transfers out this season. I hope the recruiting picks up dramatically and I'm being somewhat of a Chicken Little. But, it seems like it could be a really bad offseason for the team and we may find ourselves hoping to get to a bowl game more often than not versus 'how do we get to Atlanta' or 'finish 2nd in the SECE'.

I stated after the TN blood letting when UK was so unprepared, unmotivated and unfocused that UK was closer to Vandy than GA. That was more prophetic than I imagined.

 

[oddis500]

Totally agree on the losing interest. And keep in mind, we are actually on the inside! In another 5 years 80% of college teams will have zero chance. Anyone who thought this was good for the sport was seriously shortsighted.

 

[FltDoc]

Becoming harder and harder to connect…even for the University that i graduated from in 1988.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

 

[Cefiro]

I love CFB maybe even more than ever, I just don’t think Stoops and Mitch B are the future of the program.

 

[megablue]

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GREAT SONG !!!!

 

[K_TIME]

Totally agree.

1. Stoops and the staff have been very disappointing
2. Recruiting is looking very bad this class...no way to put liptick on this year's class thus far.
3. The thought that we could lose some of the good kids we have on the team is probably a bridge to far for me. If teams can just pick off your few really good players....then why would anyone outside of 15 or so programs even care to support your team? It's like minor league vs. major league teams.

 

[Hjack]

Just read an article about the major fact that may get Kiffin to Auburn is the massive amount of NIL money that Auburn has available.

Unfortunately, we are now in an era where the only difference between college ball and the NFL is the letter 'F'.

 

[Dddjdd]

3. The thought that we could lose some of the good kids we have on the team is probably a bridge to far for me. If teams can just pick off your few really good players....then why would anyone outside of 15 or so programs even care to support your team? It's like minor league vs. major league teams.

Or if you’re outside of that top 15 why would people donate their hard earned money to try to crowd fund a payroll for the team if you can’t match the big boys? If I donated to the collective and then Barion Brown goes to Alabama, they’d give my money to some field hockey player and I’d be the biggest sucker ever.

 

[sluggercatfan]

The past handful of years, we've had quite a bit of success and each year seemingly built on the previous year(s). With NIL, the staff continuity issues, disappointing results on the field, unexpectedly high number of recruiting misses, etc., I'm afraid we may see the program take a huge step back and may soon be fighting Vandy annually to stay out of the SECE cellar. The future looks much more uncertain and bleaker than it has in several years, imo.

I love college football and, especially, UK. However, if CFB continues down this road where every player is a free agent every year and only the schools willing to buy a good team are able to compete, they may lose me. I find that I don't watch nearly as much CFB as I used to and that trend started just a few years ago. Look at most of the games on TV and there are more and more empty seats. Economics has something to do with that, but, if CFB becomes OAD like CBB (transfers to other schools, not NBA for CFB), then I'll probably lose interest in following CFB in the same way I've almost completely lost interest in CBB (I watch, in total, maybe 4 games a year of CBB).

I hope the admin and Stoops & Co. can right the ship and not see wholesale transfers out this season. I hope the recruiting picks up dramatically and I'm being somewhat of a Chicken Little. But, it seems like it could be a really bad offseason for the team and we may find ourselves hoping to get to a bowl game more often than not versus 'how do we get to Atlanta' or 'finish 2nd in the SECE'.

As MS would say "without a doubt "

 

[gamecockcat]

Well, at least I'm not the only one. Disheartening what's happened to CFB the past few years. I personally don't think expanding the playoffs is a good thing, either, although it does allow more teams to play. But, why should a 10-2 or 9-3 team ranked 12th be allowed the opportunity to knock off a team with a perfect record in a monumental upset? How does expanding the playoffs help identify the best team?

But, NIL will kill my interest in CFB if it continues to rule the game as it does now. I have never had any problem with scholarship athletes getting a stipend or work/study type of payment. But, 100s of thousands of dollars to sign on the dotted line and have no obligation to stay more than one year? No thank you. Saturday afternoons in the fall in Colorado are quite stunning and I may just have to go hiking or play tennis or whatever more often.

 

[BlueRaider22]

#1 - Bad timing. Everything is so doom/gloom right now. You would get different answers in this thread if we were 8-2 right now. It's probably best to have "state of the union" conversations during the off-season when you can sit back, take a breath, and evaluate with less emotion.

#2 - Blue Bloods. There are very, very few programs in the nation that can recruit and win big just about every year. Michigan, Bama, UGA, Ohio State, etc. Programs like this can win 10+ games just about every year. But, even they have cycles......

#3 - Cycles. Every program has cycles. It wasn't too terribly long ago that Bama and Michigan were really down. Right now, programs like USC and Texas are down.....but they'll like cycle back up......it's just a question of when. Historically top 25 programs like Tennessee can bounce back quicker. It's very, very difficult to change your gross cycle status.

#4 - UK's cycle. Since WW2, UK's cycle has been anywhere around a win percentage of 20-60%......with a few outliers here and there. They only had 7 seasons above 75% win percentage......and 8 seasons under 20% during the 80 year span from 2022-1942. So, they really averaged 1 really good and 1 really bad season every decade. They have a terrible history when you look at their history in it's entirety.

Now, let's look at some bright spots. Bear Bryant was here for 8 years. He has season win percentages from 55% up to 92%. And he was cyclical. He didn't win 90% every since year like Saban has. His season records would go up and down from year to year.

Stoops has percentages of 17% up to 77%. And his seasons are cyclical. Over the last 7 years his records seem to range from 5 wins up to 10 wins. If you were to look at the last 7 years, Stoops win percentage is lowest at 46% and highest at 77%. It's also worth noting that in the 7 seasons where UK has been over 75% win percentage in a year over the last 80 years, Stoops is responsible for 2 of these. While he certainly has not made it rain with banners, he certainly has kept UK out of the SEC cellar and bouncing in/out of the top 25 rankings.

#5 - How to change cycle status?
-Does making a great HC hire change your status? - Not likely. In the vast majority of cases, the great coaches don't stay. Franklin did as well as anybody has been able to do at Vandy.....but left. Did Vandy change? Nope. In fact, I can't think of a single program where a great hire was made at a poor college program, left, and the program was able to maintain momentum to change their cycle status.

-Does winning a NC change your status? Not likely. Auburn won a title in 2010 and it doesn't appear that they have progressed into the Bama/OSU tier. They seem to be stuck in their cycle which is basically 6-10 wins on any given year.

-Longevity - This seems to be the only time where we have seen changes in tier status. Virginia Tech had win percentages from 20% up to 60% on average before Frank Beamer. Beamer was very consistent in his cycles ranging from 55% to 85%. He was there for so long that following Beamer, VT was able to make a hire in Fuente that continued ranging from 45% to 71%.

Miami was basically a .500 program before the 1980's. They had an absolute tremendous run for about 20 years......and even though they haven't returned to the same level over the last 20 yrs, they've certainly haven been well above their historical cycle. What is very interesting about Miami is that they made is that they made 3 coaching changes during this span.....but each time the new coach was taking over it was for a 10-2 or 11-1 team the year before.


#6 - So, is UK at a crossroads? I don't think so, but it does have a bit of conundrum. Stoops isn't winning at UK like those HC's did at Miami, but he's mirroring Beamer fairly well. It took Beamer a decade before he won his first couple of 10 win seasons as well. Beamer really took off in the back part of his career. Here's the issue. If you think that Stoops hasn't done better than anyone else at UK in the last 80 years not named Bear Bryant, then you are in complete denial. But, it's also clear that he's not going to win every single year like the Blue Bloods. Keeping him on board means that you're providing stability and improving the putrid history of this program.....but it also means that you're going to bounce around from 6-10 wins any given year. If you get rid of him, unfortunately, it's still more likely than not that you will fall back to the SEC cellar moreso than rise above what Stoops has done.



#7 - The wildcards.
-The Playoffs - What's interesting is that if they expand the playoff system to perhaps 8 teams, that it will likely benefit UK because now the chances of them somehow making it go up exponentially. However, if they don't expand, I don't think it helps nor hinders UK.

-NIL - This is huge. If UK does not get on board, this will hurt. If they average in, things will be so-so. But if they go nuts as they are capable of, it could be a boon.

 

[The-Hack]

If NIL and the portal has us and college football at a crossroads, I fear that most will take the route of Robert Johnson.

 

[The Snoke]

The past handful of years, we've had quite a bit of success and each year seemingly built on the previous year(s). With NIL, the staff continuity issues, disappointing results on the field, unexpectedly high number of recruiting misses, etc., I'm afraid we may see the program take a huge step back and may soon be fighting Vandy annually to stay out of the SECE cellar. The future looks much more uncertain and bleaker than it has in several years, imo.

I love college football and, especially, UK. However, if CFB continues down this road where every player is a free agent every year and only the schools willing to buy a good team are able to compete, they may lose me. I find that I don't watch nearly as much CFB as I used to and that trend started just a few years ago. Look at most of the games on TV and there are more and more empty seats. Economics has something to do with that, but, if CFB becomes OAD like CBB (transfers to other schools, not NBA for CFB), then I'll probably lose interest in following CFB in the same way I've almost completely lost interest in CBB (I watch, in total, maybe 4 games a year of CBB).

I hope the admin and Stoops & Co. can right the ship and not see wholesale transfers out this season. I hope the recruiting picks up dramatically and I'm being somewhat of a Chicken Little. But, it seems like it could be a really bad offseason for the team and we may find ourselves hoping to get to a bowl game more often than not versus 'how do we get to Atlanta' or 'finish 2nd in the SECE'.

I appreciate your thoughts. It is exactly how I feel. I feel like I’m at a crossroads of being invested of the program completely. I was raised Blue and have lived Blue for 50+ years. I divested from basketballlast year. As long as Cal remains… I am not ready to do that with CMS but it I’m hurting, and wondering right now. Newfound success that we should build on, not regress because of the past accomplishments. I hope Stoops and Co. figure the right way.

 

[Father Torque]

I appreciate your thoughts. It is exactly how I feel. I feel like I’m at a crossroads of being invested of the program completely. I was raised Blue and have lived Blue for 50+ years. I divested from basketballlast year. As long as Cal remains… I am not ready to do that with CMS but it I’m hurting, and wondering right now. Newfound success that we should build on, not regress because of the past accomplishments. I hope Stoops and Co. figure the right way.

Same here. I haven't watched more than 2 UK bball games in a few years, lost all interest in that mess that Calipari puts out.

UK football has always been my first love, but I'm not sure I can go back to the Bill Curry/Joker of crap football. I think I'd have to give it up before I go back to subjecting myself to all that again. I'm hoping somebody stages an intervention with Stoops and puts him in offensive football rehab. He's got to realize what he's doing and step back from the cliff.

 

[Chad Rock]

 

[BBNFORLIFE]

That Vandy game has just got me bummed about this year’s team. That loss really hurt stoops and all of bbn. Beating the cards in a couple of weeks can really help. I know it will help this ole uk football fan.

 

[The-Hack]

Beating the cards in a couple of weeks can really help. I know it will help this ole uk football fan.

If it happens, it will exorcise some of the demons of the season.

 

[MTsandfly]

I just don’t like the current CFB environment. It puts us, and tons of other teams, in a situation where it will be even harder to compete than it has been. Lots of good points made above so I don’t need to repeat them but I just don’t see it so much as a program issue as it is a CFB issue. And, maybe our AD/coaching staff aren’t well equipped to keep us from slippage in this day and age. I’ll say this, if next year is as bad or worse than this year, we’ll be in big trouble.

 

[backinky2018]

I do agree that we're at a bit of a crossroads. Unfortunately, it's a bad time for the program to be second guessing itself. Consider:

1). We came into the season as the unquestioned solid upper tier (but well below Alabama and Georgia) SEC team that is rock solid under Mark stoops. The pundits had grown to respect our program and most prognosticators saw anywhere from 8-11 wins. Now, we're losing at home to South Carolina and vandy.

2). We are going to a division-less SEC no later than 2025. That means a lot more Alabama, Auburn, LSU, A&M, Texas, and OU and a lot less vandy, South Carolina, and Mizzou.

3). We are publicly struggling with NIL.

All of this is a BAD storm to happen all at once. If Stoops is committed to being here for the long term, then he is really going to have to weather the storm and right the ship. These are the first really choppy waters since he looked to be on the chopping block before that FG went through the uprights against Miss state in 2016.

 

[sam_o]

NIL is going to kill college football

 

[MTsandfly]

NIL is going to kill college football

That and the current transfer rule. NCAA can’t seem to get much of anything right.

 

[ULisnotmyman]

Yes and have no fear, Matt Jones is here to sort it all out and make everything A OK!!

 

[YaketySax]

#1 - Bad timing. Everything is so doom/gloom right now. You would get different answers in this thread if we were 8-2 right now. It's probably best to have "state of the union" conversations during the off-season when you can sit back, take a breath, and evaluate with less emotion.

This. Nine months ago, fresh off another 10-win season and the best-ever signing class, no one thought we were at a crossroads. I don't think the program is so fragile we do a 180 in less than 365. The program could get new assistants and portal upgrades and be back to a 9-10 win season in 2023.

With that said, NIL is the great unknown but that's true for a lot of programs. It's alarmist and short-sighted to assume it's only impacting UK. The portal is also an unknown, but UK has really benefited from the portal! In both getting new players but also easing the ability to get rid of deadweight.

I'll know if UK was at a crossroads in November 2022 by November 2024.

 

[RocknRollCats]

No, I'm definitely not just starting to feel that way as I've been feeling that way for a few (maybe even several) weeks now.

 

[docholiday51]

I have the feeling we just won't compete, for whatever reason we are not the team that had Ole Miss beat at their place. The Vandy game, there just are no words,
we have more talent than Vandy, were at home and still playing to have a decent season. It seems none of that mattered to the players or the coaches.

 

[The Snoke]

I have the feeling we just won't compete, for whatever reason we are not the team that had Ole Miss beat at their place. The Vandy game, there just are no words,
we have more talent than Vandy, were at home and still playing to have a decent season. It seems none of that mattered to the players or the coaches.

That’s so true and to me, the scary part. NIL is something like a damn conundrum wrapped in an enigma. The portal is something I think we benefit from based on trending news, good and bad. The real thing CMS has to do is keep out coaching others and then things kind of take care of themselves… mostly. The display this year yanks this program down a long, long way. In less than one season, this program is in a different place. Gonna be hard to get over this one cause there wasn’t much room for error to grow.

 

[panthergram]

I stated after the TN blood letting when UK was so unprepared, unmotivated and unfocused that UK was closer to Vandy than GA. That was more prophetic than I imagined.

I'm wondering how you could be unfocused when playing the #2 team in the country...my guess was scared.

 

[Chad Rock]

That’s so true and to me, the scary part. NIL is something like a damn conundrum wrapped in an enigma. The portal is something I think we benefit from based on trending news, good and bad. The real thing CMS has to do is keep out coaching others and then things kind of take care of themselves… mostly. The display this year yanks this program down a long, long way. In less than one season, this program is in a different place. Gonna be hard to get over this one cause there wasn’t much room for error to grow.

I think there was a direct correlation to the NIL Big News Coming Next Week statements late last week and the outcome of the game. Seems like they were focusing on getting paid vs. playing to win. Some of the whiffed blocks and tackles I saw last week, I thought, were a thing of the past.

 

[Thecycle27]

Very good discussion. Everything comes down to numbers. Ohio State claims it will take $13m to build their class. For everyone else that isn’t a blue blood that number is probably in the $6-8 million range. There will always be that gap.

It becomes money ball. You have to get the right players at the right price. Good luck with that because your data with high school kids is limited. Talent evaluation is critical. It happens all the time schools like UK identify kids tried to hide them only to have UGA come in late and grab them. These are the kids UK should be able to retain with NIL.

The portal is where you can get the best value. You get good data and good players leave the blue bloods.

The problem with the portal it strips away at the depth as fast as you add it. Which is an absolute killer for programs like UK especially if it happens at key positions.

Here is the thing there will be a coach-university that figures this out like Billy Bean did, but it will cycle back up to the top over time.

 

[ace on the river]

NIL is going to kill college football

It already has, the shit is starting to roll down hill

 

[Short-Dawg-69]

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Awesome song love me some Eric Clapton

 

[Eccain01]

I don’t think NIL is why we are at a crossroads it’s that we have consistently failed on the offensive side of the ball and I’m not sure any of us has any true belief it’s going to get fixed.

 

[The Snoke]

I don’t think NIL is why we are at a crossroads it’s that we have consistently failed on the offensive side of the ball and I’m not sure any of us has any true belief it’s going to get fixed.

That’s fair. NIL, I think, takes care of itself with quality on the field. When you fail on the field, I promise, you lessen the NIL results. Put a product on the field that people live and believe in, for the most part, it takes care of itself. Loosing to Vandy… that hurt a lot.