M4: you’re the GM and it winter 2024. I hand you $37 million and tell you to go build an outfield. Who would you have signed?
There are multiple options the Reds could have explored, so this will be another long post. I will give the FO credit on Hays. That was a nice signing late in the game. That is $5 million guaranteed in the bargain basement options. Considering the Reds have the $37 million already tied up to Martinez/Candelario, they spent $5 million on Hays and $3,325,000 on Gavin Lux in arbitration. That would be $45,325,000 between Martinez/Candelario, and Hays/Lux as the outfield additions the Reds made over the offseason.
Forget the $45,325,000, even though that is what the Reds would be working with. An outfield can still be built from $37 million. I know you aren't high on this guy, but Anthony Santander in GABP despite the slow start, only $9 million. I would absolutely take him on as an All-Star that hit 44 HR, 102 RBIs. Those numbers in GABP are probably more like 50 HRs and over 110 RBIs. Let me add that he hit .208 last April, and still managed to win the silver slugger award in 2024.
$28 million left. We can do Austin Hays, $5 million here, and reaching a deal with the utility player Lux in arbitration for $3,325,000 despite them already being on the Reds actual budget. Just mentioning Hays & Lux here since they did not have them yet going into the winter of 2024, and working within the $37 million. I like these two additions, and would build with them on the team. The contract of Hays, Santander, and Lux combined is just $1,325,000 more than Jeimer's $16 million to go on 5 for 65 droughts. There is no way in hell they can pick up his $18 million club option in 2027.
$19,675,000 left. Our outfield is Hays, Santander, Fraley, Friedl, Dunn, Lux via trade and signing in arbitration. A great trade by this FO.
You could take a chance on adding another outfielder in tier two from the options previously discussed and expect that they will play to their career numbers despite slow starts. Or sign Tyler O'Neill to shore up the defense for $16.5 million. That would leave the Reds with $3,175,000 left out of the $37 million. I much prefer going for a better option through the trade market and utilize our prospects. An option the Reds could explore today despite their budget with the contracts of Martinez/Candelario. If you don't sign anyone else like O'Neill, back to $19,675,000 that can go towards paying down contracts for players in trades, or put back to sign extensions. We have some very important players like Stephenson, Lodolo, and Lux among other key players in arbitration still at the end of the season.
We heard rumors of the Reds and Kyle Tucker. The Cubs sent prospects and did not have to pay Houston a cent towards his contract. Tucker's contract is $16.5 million like O'Neill, if the Reds did this trade and decided to take on the entire contract for the year. He's probably more of a rental player, but affordable if the Reds wanted to win now in 2025.
Brenton Doyle is another player I wouldn't mind to see traded for. 5-tool player. 23 home runs, 72 RBIs and 30 stolen bases. Two gold glove awards and he is only starting his 3rd season. He has been out of lineup some due to being on the bereavement list this year. Team control through 2028.
Josh Naylor, plays 1B/OF. Heard his name rumored with the Reds this offseason. That dude can absolutely rake. All-Star last year, 31 home runs and 108 RBIs. Good start to the year hitting .301, 4 HRs, 17 RBIs. Arizona traded one talented pitching prospect and a compensation pick in this year's draft.
Jorge Soler, wouldn't be my first choice but that guy has some raw power that would be intriguing in GABP. Angels got him for a pitcher with a career 4.70 ERA, Griffin Canning. Reasonable addition for a small market team. Under contract for next year too.
These were obtainable players last offseason, and they can still make an offer for Doyle. It doesn't have to be any of these players. There are 29 other teams full of players. Brad Meador and Nick Krall can call around to find one. It has been 35 years since the last World Series. I would be fine if the Reds pushed their chips in like the Royals in 2015 to win the World Series. Imagine had this happened. A lineup with Santander's 2024 production, Kyle Tucker added via trade for prospects like the Cubs did, EDLC taking the next step forward with lineup protection and putting it together for an entire year, along with Marte continuing to build off this last week, Stephenson, Hays. Would just need to get McLain and CES playing up to their potential. Same with a player like Steer at DH putting up the numbers he did in 2023 who was better this past week. Still have options like Lux and Friedl. The strength of the starting pitching if they stay healthy and continue at this rate. There would be some money left for a reliable setup man before Pagan. These moves wouldn't even deplete the farm system.
Multiple options for starting outfielders depending on the roster built going into the winter of 2024. My starting OF would be Santander, I would go the trade route for a star OF with one of (Tucker, Doyle, Naylor & Soler), Kyle would be awesome, any of the other 3 would work. If the Reds did not go the trade route, 2nd outfielder would be Tyler O'Neill with his defense/30 HR potential, and Friedl is my 3rd outfielder. A legitimate case can be made for Hays, Friedl, Lux or Fraley as the 3rd starting outfielder with 2 star outfielders already in the lineup. Anyone of them can get in at DH. There is no reason an outfield like this could not happen within the $37 million, and utilizing the farm system. The silver slugger Santander stays in the lineup with his power. ($9 million for 44/102 is hard to pass up). If the lineup prioritizes defense, Tucker, Doyle or O'Neill is the 2nd outfielder, 3rd Friedl. The offensive lineup with Santander's power, (1 of Tucker, Naylor), and Hays as the 3rd outfielder.
Even if the Reds went with those two free agent additions (Hays/Santander) with what they have, I believe the OF picture looks better. Hays can't do it all being their best option in the outfield as it stands today. An outfield of TJ Friedl, Austin Hays, Jake Fraley and Gavin Lux may be alright if they are all playing at a high level and healthy. Consistency and staying healthy is an issue. Is it a serviceable outfield if all is going well for them? Sure. Will you win and advance in the postseason? Not unless the Reds bring in someone else to carry the lineup. They all are good 3-4 outfield options if you have a strong outfield like the Reds did with two All-Stars in 2021, Winker and Castellanos. Still trying to replace them 4 years later. Naquin benefited from playing with them, I think our current guys would benefit if they improve the lineup with better outfielders. IMO, they are an impact bat away like Votto was in his prime from being dangerous. The outfield happens to be the weakest link where they need to acquire a star player to carry the team during a slump.
Here is where I get frustrated by the front office. Trade some prospects. We have infielders right now with Steer, Marte, EDLC, McLain, Lux, CES, Espinal. We have some top 150 prospects with infielders Edwin Arroyo, Cam Collier, Sal Stewart in the infield who will likely be ready in 1-2 years. I believe that Sammy Stafura and Tyson Lewis have the potential to be stars at the MLB level too. Where are all of them going to play?
Also, other top 100 prospects with the pitcher Chase Petty. The rotation already has Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder when he is back, and Chase Burns rocketing through the system. HG, Lodolo, Lowder and Burns will be a lethal 4 in the starting rotation possibly as soon as this year. The Reds have 6 options already with MLB experience, and Chase Burns could easily force his way into the picture in 2025 for 7. Several recently drafted College arms that won't take as long to develop through the pipeline as a HS pitcher, Luke Holman and Ty Floyd, not to mention Adam Serwinowski graded higher than they are. Only naming some of the organization's best prospects. Likely even more that reach the MLB level. I'm not saying all of these prospects are going to be All-Stars. The good thing about prospects, they won't have to be proven All-Stars for a trade when it is about their potential. Move some of them to help the Reds win now by acquiring a proven star, and don't waste this window before the next fire sale.
Cincinnati could choose one of their pitchers currently on the active roster. Singer, Martinez or Abbott, and package them with top prospects where the Reds have depth in to go get a star outfielder. I don't believe a one for one swap of Singer, Martinez or Abbott will bring them an All-Star outfielder. Singer and India was an even trade at the time with the Reds benefiting from the deal more. Martinez would have to go on the 2nd half run he had in 2024 starting tomorrow night against St. Louis for teams to be interested in taking on his expensive, expiring contract by the trade deadline. If there was team control and the contract wasn't so expensive, he would be easier to move and get something back. I have nothing against Martinez personally, but as the highest-paid player comes high expectations. With a month gone, he needs to start performing now like he did last year that got him this contract. I hope to be on here tomorrow night saying he pitched good and the Reds won. Jeimer can't get out of here soon enough. I knew this contract would be bad, and even MLB Network analysts said at the time the Reds paid more than he was worth. Abbott I am higher on than most here seem to be. If he is your 5th starter behind Greene, Lowder, Lodolo, and Burns. That is a great rotation, especially for the price the Reds are paying them.