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2 of our 8 Worst Seasons in School History Have Come in the Last 3 years

Dec 19, 2015
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In case anyone tries to tell you things aren't as bad as they seem, or that our expectations are too high, consider this:

Kentucky's best case scenario record in the regular season is 19-12.

We have 4 road games left against top 25 teams, those are guaranteed losses which puts us at 8. We have 4 home games left against top 25 teams, 3 of which are in the top 10. Generously lets say you win 2 of those. Thats 10 losses. Then you have 4 more road games and Florida at home. 3-2 in those games is generous. Thats a 19-12 record at best and easily could be 18-13, 17-16 etc.

If we go 2-2 in the postseason (seems generous) that puts us at 21-14, or a winning percentage of 60%.

Going back to 1930, Rupp's first season, here are the worst teams in school history by winning percentage:

1. 2020-21: 9-16 (.360)

2. 1988-89: 13-19 (.406) (probation looming)​

3. 1966-67: 13-13 (.500)​

4. 1973-74: 13-13 (.500)​

5. 1989-90: 14-14 (.500) (probation)​

6. 1984-85: 18-13 (.581)​

7. 2007-08: 18-13 (.581)​

T8. 1964-65: 15-10 (.600)​

T8. 2022-23: 21-14 (.600)



This could easily slip to the 6th worst ever if we drop a couple of those toss up wins I'm giving us. Thats 93 seasons of basketball and 2 of the absolute worst are happening in the present day.
 
In case anyone tries to tell you things aren't as bad as they seem, or that our expectations are too high, consider this:

Kentucky's best case scenario record in the regular season is 19-12.

We have 4 road games left against top 25 teams, those are guaranteed losses which puts us at 8. We have 4 home games left against top 25 teams, 3 of which are in the top 10. Generously lets say you win 2 of those. Thats 10 losses. Then you have 4 more road games and Florida at home. 3-2 in those games is generous. Thats a 19-12 record at best and easily could be 18-13, 17-16 etc.

If we go 2-2 in the postseason (seems generous) that puts us at 21-14, or a winning percentage of 60%.

Going back to 1930, Rupp's first season, here are the worst teams in school history by winning percentage:

1. 2020-21: 9-16 (.360)

2. 1988-89: 13-19 (.406) (probation looming)​

3. 1966-67: 13-13 (.500)​

4. 1973-74: 13-13 (.500)​

5. 1989-90: 14-14 (.500) (probation)​

6. 1984-85: 18-13 (.581)​

7. 2007-08: 18-13 (.581)​

T8. 1964-65: 15-10 (.600)​

T8. 2022-23: 21-14 (.600)



This could easily slip to the 6th worst ever if we drop a couple of those toss up wins I'm giving us. Thats 93 seasons of basketball and 2 of the absolute worst are happening in the present day.
2, 5, and 6 are understandable.

#6 was after Bowie and company had graduated and was Hall's last year.

There is no excuse for #1. Not even covid as every other team was in the same boat.
 
Back in November I looked at the schedule and decided that 20 and 11 was where we were headed. Now you all are telling me we'll be lucky to get there.
 
The OP doesn't understand the definition of best case. I agree the schedule is daunting with this coach and this overrated team though.
 
In case anyone tries to tell you things aren't as bad as they seem, or that our expectations are too high, consider this:

Kentucky's best case scenario record in the regular season is 19-12.

We have 4 road games left against top 25 teams, those are guaranteed losses which puts us at 8. We have 4 home games left against top 25 teams, 3 of which are in the top 10. Generously lets say you win 2 of those. Thats 10 losses. Then you have 4 more road games and Florida at home. 3-2 in those games is generous. Thats a 19-12 record at best and easily could be 18-13, 17-16 etc.

If we go 2-2 in the postseason (seems generous) that puts us at 21-14, or a winning percentage of 60%.

Going back to 1930, Rupp's first season, here are the worst teams in school history by winning percentage:

1. 2020-21: 9-16 (.360)

2. 1988-89: 13-19 (.406) (probation looming)​

3. 1966-67: 13-13 (.500)​

4. 1973-74: 13-13 (.500)​

5. 1989-90: 14-14 (.500) (probation)​

6. 1984-85: 18-13 (.581)​

7. 2007-08: 18-13 (.581)​

T8. 1964-65: 15-10 (.600)​

T8. 2022-23: 21-14 (.600)



This could easily slip to the 6th worst ever if we drop a couple of those toss up wins I'm giving us. Thats 93 seasons of basketball and 2 of the absolute worst are happening in the present day.
"Four road games against top 25 teams are guaranteed losses."

LOL, I would love that bet. Among others.
 
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Oh man. I know I'm not as involved with the team as I was when I was younger. But, I somehow missed all the remaining season. Time to start fishing.
 
In case anyone tries to tell you things aren't as bad as they seem, or that our expectations are too high, consider this:

Kentucky's best case scenario record in the regular season is 19-12.

We have 4 road games left against top 25 teams, those are guaranteed losses which puts us at 8. We have 4 home games left against top 25 teams, 3 of which are in the top 10. Generously lets say you win 2 of those. Thats 10 losses. Then you have 4 more road games and Florida at home. 3-2 in those games is generous. Thats a 19-12 record at best and easily could be 18-13, 17-16 etc.

If we go 2-2 in the postseason (seems generous) that puts us at 21-14, or a winning percentage of 60%.

Going back to 1930, Rupp's first season, here are the worst teams in school history by winning percentage:

1. 2020-21: 9-16 (.360)

2. 1988-89: 13-19 (.406) (probation looming)​

3. 1966-67: 13-13 (.500)​

4. 1973-74: 13-13 (.500)​

5. 1989-90: 14-14 (.500) (probation)​

6. 1984-85: 18-13 (.581)​

7. 2007-08: 18-13 (.581)​

T8. 1964-65: 15-10 (.600)​

T8. 2022-23: 21-14 (.600)



This could easily slip to the 6th worst ever if we drop a couple of those toss up wins I'm giving us. Thats 93 seasons of basketball and 2 of the absolute worst are happening in the present day.
This season's story has not been written. You're just hoping it's like that. Get back when it's done.
 
To the OP.
First of all, you list 9 seasons not 8, with your assumed record for this year tied for 8th.

We don't know about this year, there is a lot of speculation on your part with that 21-14 and assumption it becomes one of the 9 worst seasons. It could move up to 6th worst (of 3rd if Oscar were injured), or it could be no where near the bottom 10, we just don't know yet. I'd place the level of probability of exactly that 21-14 record at <10%. I do think the probability of say 12-16 losses (your 14 +/-2) is pretty high (>70%), and if you expand it to 10-16 losses that goes up to over 90%. That doesn't even consider the number of wins, which you are assuming we will win exactly 2 tournament (either SEC-T or NCAA-T or NIT) games. Even getting that last guess right (2 tourney wins) probably only has about a 50% probability by itself.
 
I'm confused. Did you just say that 2 of our worst 8 seasons have occurred in the last three years but you've included this season when it hasn't even been completed yet? lol.

FWIW our projected record on Kenpom is 20-11.
 
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Are you just going with the “blind squirrel finds a nut eventually” theory?

Because we’ve shown nothing that says we will win one of those games.

We haven't but it's just simple math and statistics that we are way more likely to NOT go 0-4 in those.

I would take that bet every day of the week, even with this team and even with the inability so far that we've had winning big games.
 
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We haven't but it's just simple math and statistics that we are way more likely to NOT go 0-4 in those.

I would take that bet every day of the week, even with this team and even with the inability so far that we've had winning big games.
I figured you were just using probabilities. Was hoping you saw something different with our team 😂
 
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I'm lacking confidence in this team and Calipari, but one thing I'm not doing is going all in on a doomsday frame of mind on a season who's non-conference schedule is just now beginning. Let's see how the season plays out before we jump onto the misery train, shall we?

Many of these kinds of threads wreak of "fans" posting their hopes that the UK team fails, before the games have even been played. Totally reminds me of Randy Quaid's character, Johnny, in Major League.
 
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