Updated Model Results after Penn

[Aike]

Early season and things are still very fluid.

We slipped from 6th to 11th following yesterday’s outing.

For some perspective, our current 2.18 score would have been good for sixth overall heading into last year’s tournament.

It also would have been good for sixth overall this same weekend last year. So, early indications are that the field is a little deeper this year at the top.

Arizona is currently lapping the field with a score of 4.11. Like I said, still early, but no one has had a 4 going into the tournament since I’ve been doing this.

 

[BigKari]

What did UConn look like in your model going into the tourney last year? Just to get a quick gauge.

 

[Aike]

What did UConn look like in your model going into the tourney last year? Just to get a quick gauge.

Going into the tournament UCONN was 4th at 2.43. After the tournament they were 1st at 2.74.

At this point in the season last year UCONN was first at 3.48.

 

[bigc45157]

Going into the tournament UCONN was 4th at 2.43. After the tournament they were 1st at 2.74.

At this point in the season last year UCONN was first at 3.48.

That’s legit!

 

[Mike-D]

We are gonna keep falling in your model with our revamped offense.

 

[Aike]

We are gonna keep falling in your model with our revamped offense.

We will unless we make up for it in some other areas. Hopefully defense and rebounding will improve with contributions from Bradshaw.

 

[Mike-D]

We will unless we make up for it in some other areas. Hopefully defense and rebounding will improve with contributions from Bradshaw.

So depressing.

 

[Aike]

So depressing.

I don’t think it rises to the level of depressing. Should expect a ramp up period incorporating different pieces.

I understand the fatalistic feelings considering some of what we’ve witnessed recently. But I think it’s going to be hard to stifle this bunch over the course of a whole season. Even for Cal.

 

[Wonky]

I don’t think it rises to the level of depressing. Should expect a ramp up period incorporating different pieces.

I understand the fatalistic feelings considering some of what we’ve witnessed recently. But I think it’s going to be hard to stifle this bunch over the course of a whole season. Even for Cal.

I hope you’re right.

I think my skepticism mostly stems from the fact that Cal hasn’t actually said “our goal is to win a national championship” since basically the day he was hired. If he would just say those simple words, I think a lot of the fanbase could calm down and just “enjoy the process” as he is always telling us to do. But when so many of his words and actions over the last decade have seemed contrary to that goal, it’s hard to have much in the way of confidence. Because if a title isn’t Cal’s #1 goal, then it won’t be the players’, either.

 

[Fitch44]

I absolutely love Bradshaw.
His second game back and he got 17/11 off mostly garbage stuff, and running the floor.
He is going to be a game changer. He plays so hard on both ends and with so much great energy. Not surprised by his outgoing fun personality that he showed in the mic’s up piece, especially after seeing him play.

Love what he brings!!!

 

[Mike-D]

I don’t think it rises to the level of depressing. Should expect a ramp up period incorporating different pieces.

I understand the fatalistic feelings considering some of what we’ve witnessed recently. But I think it’s going to be hard to stifle this bunch over the course of a whole season. Even for Cal.

I hope so. I was just ready to run through a tournament looking like a good Villanova team, and not have to worry about the possibilities of being offensively challenged. Just so many wasted possessions where we are force feeding the post, and have 4 guys standing around where a big just dribbles, dribbles, and dribbles. I just can't watch it anymore.

 

[Aike]

I hope you’re right.

I think my skepticism mostly stems from the fact that Cal hasn’t actually said “our goal is to win a national championship” since basically the day he was hired. If he would just say those simple words, I think a lot of the fanbase could calm down and just “enjoy the process” as he is always telling us to do. But when so many of his words and actions over the last decade have seemed contrary to that goal, it’s hard to have much in the way of confidence. Because if a title isn’t Cal’s #1 goal, then it won’t be the players’, either.

I think these guys want to win a title. Wagner’s grandfather won one. Reed’s dad won two. Just a very competitive bunch.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

I don’t think it rises to the level of depressing. Should expect a ramp up period incorporating different pieces.

I understand the fatalistic feelings considering some of what we’ve witnessed recently. But I think it’s going to be hard to stifle this bunch over the course of a whole season. Even for Cal.

When has Cal ever stifled a team he coached?

You say you understand. Based on what?

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

When has Cal ever stifled a team he coached?

You say you understand. Based on what?

You're really not very good at this.

 

[UKortho]

Early season and things are still very fluid.

We slipped from 6th to 11th following yesterday’s outing.

For some perspective, our current 2.18 score would have been good for sixth overall heading into last year’s tournament.

It also would have been good for sixth overall this same weekend last year. So, early indications are that the field is a little deeper this year at the top.

Arizona is currently lapping the field with a score of 4.11. Like I said, still early, but no one has had a 4 going into the tournament since I’ve been doing this.

Very cool Aike. I have really gotten into advanced stats lately and can appreciate the difficulty

 

[Aike]

When has Cal ever stifled a team he coached?

You say you understand. Based on what?

He’s turned several talented teams into grind it out types by tournament time.

I understand based on how poorly we’ve performed over the past few seasons. Losing season. First round exit. Second round exit.

So yes, I understand why some people might be afraid that Cal will turn this into a grind it out team, or ruin another season. I think we’ll do better than that, but I understand.

 

[sk73]

I hope you’re right.

I think my skepticism mostly stems from the fact that Cal hasn’t actually said “our goal is to win a national championship” since basically the day he was hired. If he would just say those simple words, I think a lot of the fanbase could calm down and just “enjoy the process” as he is always telling us to do. But when so many of his words and actions over the last decade have seemed contrary to that goal, it’s hard to have much in the way of confidence. Because if a title isn’t Cal’s #1 goal, then it won’t be the players’, either.

Is this for real? You are saying the fans that speak out everyday in a negative way just want to hear him say, " our goal is to win a national championship". Do you really believe what you just typed?
We won a game yesterday against a fairly good opponent and this board was full of negative threads.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Going into the tournament UCONN was 4th at 2.43. After the tournament they were 1st at 2.74.

At this point in the season last year UCONN was first at 3.48.

That’s legit!

Tells me everything I need to know about who I want as our next coach. Dan. Hurley. $12 million. Do it.

@Aike .. as always...

Decent job, I guess. Needs a lot of work, though. But you'll get there.

 

[TheDude73]

We will unless we make up for it in some other areas. Hopefully defense and rebounding will improve with contributions from Bradshaw.

We've already seen Cal's "new" offense (which is just his old one with different players). He for whatever reason can't stand shooting lots of 3s, even though this team is the best equipped he's ever had (and, this is pretty much all they do in the NBA - not posting up over and over and over again). So we lose a lot of scoring because we're going to drag the clock and pound it down low, or wait for DJ, Dillingham or Edwards to dribble around and then take their guy 1 on 1 to the basket - maybe hitting 35% of those drives. Or, as we saw yesterday, the return of the midrange jumper (MY MOST HATED SHOT!).

I just don't see your model being kind to us with this return to archaic offense. I was yelling at the TV yesterday because it was so obvious Cal was taking over from Welch with his grind it out trash basketball.

 

[Wonky]

Is this for real? You are saying the fans that speak out everyday in a negative way just want to hear him say, " our goal is to win a national championship". Do you really believe what you just typed?
We won a game yesterday against a fairly good opponent and this board was full of negative threads.

Quit acting like it’s so outrageous. DeAaron Fox said it for crying out loud. Said Cal doesn’t give a shit about winning and only cares about the players and their future. And that’s coming from someone who played for the man, not some blind loyalist nut swinger on a message board.

The goal at UK should always be national championships. Over the years we’ve heard Cal talk about draft day being the greatest day in UK history and other nonsense. He also insinuated after his first title that “now that that’s over with I can focus on other things”. Just acknowledge the fans by telling us you actually care about winning your second natty. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. You act like it doesn’t need to be said… that it should be obvious. Yet Cal sure has a hard time saying it. Why is that?

Oh and one last thing… enough with the “fairly good” opponent. They are 6 and freaking 5.

 

[ukcatz12]

He’s turned several talented teams into grind it out types by tournament time.

I understand based on how poorly we’ve performed over the past few seasons. Losing season. First round exit. Second round exit.

So yes, I understand why some people might be afraid that Cal will turn this into a grind it out team, or ruin another season. I think we’ll do better than that, but I understand.

The tempo has increased since Bradshaw started playing. So currently the opposite of what people are worrying about is actually happening. Before Bradshaw started playing we were 61st in tempo, and as of today we're 34th. The rock fight, grind it out narrative hasn't been true in the slightest this year.

 

[ukcatz12]

I was yelling at the TV yesterday because it was so obvious Cal was taking over from Welch with his grind it out trash basketball.

Then you're not really aware of what you're watching. The adjusted tempo since Bradshaw started playing has increased by quite a bit. There was nothing grind it out about yesterday's game.

 

[cats2010]

Then you're not really aware of what you're watching. The adjusted tempo since Bradshaw started playing has increased by quite a bit. There was nothing grind it out about yesterday's game.

Not sure how the adjusted tempo metric is accounted for but the gripe is getting away from shooting more 3’s on our offense as opposed to throwing in the post and settling for multiple mid range shots. We did neither until bradshaws return. The two games we have played since bradshaws insertion have been our two lowest 3 point attempt games in the season. Also if you believe anything cal says, cal also stated he wanted a more grind it out game in his postgame yesterday.

 

[ukcatz12]

Not sure how the adjusted tempo metric is accounted for but the gripe is getting away from shooting more 3’s on our offense as opposed to throwing in the post and settling for multiple mid range shots. We did neither until bradshaws return. The two games we have played since bradshaws insertion have been our two lowest 3 point attempt games in the season. Also if you believe anything cal says, cal also stated he wanted a more grind it out game in his postgame yesterday.

We only took one fewer 3 against Penn than we did against Miami. There's more to a good offense than just counting 3 point attempts. The offense since Bradshaw started playing isn't all that different.

 

[Mike-D]

The offense since Bradshaw started playing isn't all that different.

What games have you been watching?

@Aike

Why do people keep saying this? The offense has changed. I've never seen a 4 out motion offense try and force feed the post. Also, we are taking double the amount of long 2's now.

 

[ukcatz12]

What games have you been watching?

@Aike

Why do people keep saying this? The offense has changed. I've never seen a 4 out motion offense try and force feed the post. Also, we are taking double the amount of long 2's now.

Because the advanced metrics are largely the same. The adjusted tempo has actually increased. There was a drop off in offensive efficiency after the UNCW game, but once DJ was back things have been back to where they were before hand. That's literally what the stats say, I'm not creating things out of mid air.

We ran Miami off the court and only shot 21 3s. We shot 20 on Saturday. I'm not sure how that's the end of the world.

 

[Mike-D]

We ran Miami off the court and only shot 21 3s. We shot 20 on Saturday. I'm not sure how that's the end of the world

Yeah, I watched that game. Miami ran us off the 3 point line, and we back doored them to death, and scored at the basket off line drives to the basket. I get that. Beautiful offense. Shooting long 2's, and force feeding the post is not.

 

[ukcatz12]

Yeah, I watched that game. Miami ran us off the 3 point line, and we back doored them to death, and scored at the basket off line drives to the basket. I get that. Beautiful offense. Shooting long 2's, and force feeding the post is not.

So you're just going to ignore how the tempo of the offense is higher with Bradshaw? It's not the rock fight type offense people are claiming. And opponents also dictate what you can do on offense.

Here are the shot charts between the Miami and Penn games. We took maybe two more long 2 point shots on seven more shot attempts against Penn. I'm really not seeing how there's been a meaningful increase in the percentage of shots taken that are long 2s.

 

[phyrekat]

Cal hates the 3-pointer. Bassfan hates the 3-pointer. I think I just figured it out - Bassy isn't a Cal supporter; bassy IS Cal.

 

[Mike-D]

So you're just going to ignore how the tempo of the offense is higher with Bradshaw?

If we keep posting the basketball, I don't see any scenario where that doesn't change. There must be other factors at play here. I mean I did see us go down court, and shoot a long 2 with 20 seconds on the shot clock multiple times. I don't know what all is at play here for that metric, but posting Bradshaw doesn't pass the eye test for me. It's horrible basketball for the shooters we have on this team.

 

[Jack2936]

We will unless we make up for it in some other areas. Hopefully defense and rebounding will improve with contributions from Bradshaw.

This. Definitely been missing some defense. Really loved what I saw from Bradshaw. 17 pts, 11 rebounds, 3 blocks. Not many teams can match him. Impressive for only his second game, but he needs help. But it's a step in the right direction imo. It's just nice to see a complete team.

 

[Mike-D]

This. Definitely been missing some defense. Really loved what I saw from Bradshaw. 17 pts, 11 rebounds, 3 blocks. Not many teams can match him. Impressive for only his second game, but he needs help. But it's a step in the right direction imo. It's just nice to see a complete team.

I don't think he needs any help. I think he needs to be subbing in and out for Mitchell. Yeah, run them together in spots, but it seemed like they were in the game together most of the night when they were on the floor.

 

[Jack2936]

I don't think he needs any help. I think he needs to be subbing in and out for Mitchell. Yeah, run them together in spots, but it seemed like they were in the game together most of the night when they were on the floor.

Yeah, I'm just talking about more of a team effort on defense. His height is an advantage, and he can actually play, but they gotta up the defensive intensity as a team.

 

[Aike]

What games have you been watching?

@Aike

Why do people keep saying this? The offense has changed. I've never seen a 4 out motion offense try and force feed the post. Also, we are taking double the amount of long 2's now.

My biggest problem with the UNCW game was that the ball got sticky. I think part of that was that guys were holding it looking to throw in the post. Part of it was guys looking to go one on one.

I think it’s too early to worry, but something to keep an eye on. Cal definitely gets in force feeding the post moods. He gets in play a 4 at the 3 moods. He gets in telling a guy to take 1 step in and shoot a 20 footer moods.

What I’m hoping is that 4 guys (Wagner, Dillingham, Reed, Reeves) are playing so well at the 1/2 and need so many minutes that it becomes difficult for Cal to force round pegs in square holes this year.

Edit to add: defense was probably the biggest problem. The above only gives my thoughts on offense.