The mistake
@MattJonesKSR is making here and what recruiting "eexperts" often make is:
1) trying to be definitive with recruiting
2) trying to justify/ddefend why their predictions go wrong.
I've had many conversations with one of Cal's closest colleagues (not so much recently). Sometimes he would tell me things that were spot on. Sometimes he would tell me things that weren't even close. Sometimes he legitimately didn't know. Now... do you think I was getting legit info 100% of the time?
Recruiting info can come from coaches (only inside angle I've directly heard from), it can come from those close to the recruits or it can come from perceived inside outsiders (tthink Jason jordan). Those people may have agendas that results in those directly giving misleading information by the time it gets to Matt Jones.
I will say that most people surrounding the program were pretty confident in the late afternoon on Friday that we were getting brown.