Be prepared, OP, for being hammered by some very aggressive anti-Cal dudes. They are going to run with your thread topic as some kind of Cal Sucker mindset, even though it's more likely you're just putting out info that should make most of us think "wow, what a crazy difference it is thanks to NIL and the transfer portal...totally changing the competitive landscape!".
Instead, they will jab you hard and label this as an apologetic/excuse, "see other teams are losing, too!" statement.
But to your topic, nail at the foul line is correct - that those other teams lost isn't equivalent at all to what they'll see in the 16-seed. If you have examples of any of the top 2 seeds being beaten in the last week by an equivalent 15 or 16 seed, push that out here.