Thursday Night Showdown: Preview of AUvsUK from WarEagle site
- Thread starter AndyPopCat
- Start date
The overall analysis seems pretty fair and accurate, but then he throws down a predicted Auburn win by a score of 52-30?
I mean, c'mon - 52 points?
I mean, c'mon - 52 points?
I was not particularly impressed by the information in that article. I bet Dante Rumph will be surprise to hear that he will play for UK next season.
I think Auburn wins the game but IMO it will be closer than this article is predicting. Heck I have even seen an article listing this game as one of five possible upsets in the SEC this year.
I think Auburn wins the game but IMO it will be closer than this article is predicting. Heck I have even seen an article listing this game as one of five possible upsets in the SEC this year.
I agree. I thought his analysis was pretty good. He displayed pretty fair knowledge of UK.
Though, I disagree about the prediction as well. I think UK will play AU pretty close for the first half.....then they will start to pull away. He presents it as the other way around. I'm thinking more 35-27.....or 35-24.....something around there.
For those that like near-exclusive focus on the QB position:
"Last season, Kentucky was only as good as its offensive line. In games where the Wildcats could protect the quarterback, the offense was dangerous, putting up 45 points against South Carolina, 31 against Mississippi State, 30 against Florida, 31 against Georgia, and 40 against Louisville."
"Last season, Kentucky was only as good as its offensive line. In games where the Wildcats could protect the quarterback, the offense was dangerous, putting up 45 points against South Carolina, 31 against Mississippi State, 30 against Florida, 31 against Georgia, and 40 against Louisville."
That was my take as well. Thursday night games are the biggest home field advantage of any, and visitors typically struggle to win even with better talent. I think this game will be much closer than that. Auburn will be the favorite but Kentucky could pull an upset here.
I think he is taking us very lightly. When their is question marks on his team and our team it's always as advantage Auburn. I know some spots in question should be improved upon from last season but I would expect a much bigger jump in effectiveness from our guys since we have a season of being in a 3/4 under our belt and should be much improved on stopping the run. No mention of Matt Elam who is a huge space eater and I'm sure our guys are more than capable to get "violent" on their "violent OL". We have a huge DL and should clog up the middle and get a nice push on their "violent OL" our LB corp is going to be vastly more Improved as has already shown and should be hitting some licks on the RB
it still amazes me how much credit opposing fan bases are giving Pat but our own fan base seems very critical. i read a preseason position ranking from some site i'd never heard of and they had Pat ranked 6th and in the comments section 2 bama fans were going back and forth trashing the author for ranking him that low. you would of thought towles was bama's qb. they even said that they would trade any qb on their roster for him.
this analysis was mostly fair. i think they are underselling stamps and mcclain though. i get the feeling that they we'll be top half of the league duo back there and while cb is a question... i think we are really strong at both safety spots and nickle... with depth too.
this analysis was mostly fair. i think they are underselling stamps and mcclain though. i get the feeling that they we'll be top half of the league duo back there and while cb is a question... i think we are really strong at both safety spots and nickle... with depth too.
I think Auburn wins the game against Kentucky by a margin similar to what LSU won by last year. I certainly think they will be better than LSU was. I don't think there will be very many blowouts at all this season, but I expect that to be one.
I'm pretty sure that was a "craziest upset prediction" list that took the craziest predictions anyone could make and...made them.
I don't know about predicting 50+ points but their offense is capable of putting up big numbers against anyone, and will if you don't stop the RB dive. Their offense is almost like trying to stop a triple option offense that starts with the FB dive, AU's back has put up big numbers the last couple of years. Almost every play has a motion man with a threat of the speed option. The qb reads the DE and either keeps or gives to the RB on the dive, if he keeps he comes down the line and either turns it up, or throws a lateral/pass to the motion man or downfield to the WR if the DB comes up too quick to cover the motion man and the S doesn't get over quick enough. Stopping the RB without the S is critical. But predicting 50+ points is homerism at its best, I think it will be a high scoring game by both teams, but not that many.
Not sure what Brooks & Co. cooked up in 09 but we managed to limit Malzahn's offense to 14 points -- he was the OC then -- and come away with a win at Auburn. Will be interesting to see if Stoops and his defensive staff can develop a game plan that will at least slow the Tigers down a little and keep us in the game, despite being decided underdogs.
^Well, I can say that at 2 different stops (against Pac12 and ACC opponents) Stoops has conjured up top 25 ranked defenses in his 3rd yr as a DC......which he still has his hands all over our defense. Soooo.......I do expect a defensive improvement. I'm not predicting a top 25 ranked defense this coming yr, but I do expect a significant improvement.
I actually thought it was pretty fair, especially being written by an Auburn writer.
The prediction doesn't bother me as it's simply a guess.
I thought it was fair and reasonable myself.
The prediction doesn't bother me as it's simply a guess.
I thought it was fair and reasonable myself.
So your predicting our special teams to give up several scores like they did against LSU? LSU handily best us but a lot of the problem was special teams.
Auburn took us lightly in 2009, too, when we beat them at Jordan Hare. But that was the only time we beat them in the last 50 years, so I can see why they make the mistake of taking us lightly again. This game is in Lexington. Auburn will be favored, and ought to win. But this game is not a slam dunk for them.
With running quarterback Nick Marshall's departure and his replacement, Jeremy Johnson, being more of a passer, Athlon's Auburn preview suggests their offense will likely "open up the passing game and minimize the quarterback run," which will make their offense "look more like it did with Chris Todd in 2009..." Hmmm. Maybe Coach Stoops should take a look at that 09 game.
I started reading the article earlier today and I didn't finish it because I knew there would be some kind of prediction of a blowout that comes with a team not really respecting an opponent.
He seemed pretty polite, but it's clear that he looks down upon us. I guess I can't really blame him, but I knew it was coming.
My take is that there's absolutely no way we get blown out (at home of all places) in a Thursday night, early-season home game. I'll be the first to admit it would be a really tough one to pull off, but the notion of us getting blown out is kind of silly.
We might not win..but a blowout? No..not happening. Sorry Mr. Auburn blogger. The last two times we've played Auburn we beat them in their own backyard and lost by a touchdown to their national championship winning-team in '10. We generally play well against Auburn...they don't scare me like an Alabama or LSU or even a Georgia.
I don't see either defense being able to stop the other team's offense (their D was almost as bad as ours last season) and I think at the end of the day, we have the better, more experienced QB, and a home crowd advantage.
Auburn is a really good team. A national championship-caliber team. But if we play like we're capable, and the defense can step up in some key moments, we'll have a good chance to beat them. I believe that. I think this team's going to step up and surprise some people (and no that's not just something I'm saying because it's close to the start of the season and I have an over-inflated sense of optimism). I've been saying all offseason that this year's team is going to be significantly better than people think, just as last year's team was.
If we could take Mississippi State to the wire last season, I see absolutely zero reason we can't do the same (or better) with a significantly improved team this season.
You all know as well as I do that this Kentucky team just plays at a different level in home games (especially home games that the team and coaches have circled on their calendar like this one). The players feed off of the crowd and usually raise their play in these type of "circle the wagons" games.
The two big ones we had circled last year were the South Carolina game and the Mississippi State game, and we rose to the occasion in both. I see this year's big home games (UT, UL, AU) being no different. We're a different team at home, and I'd be shocked if this isn't a game that comes down to the 4th quarter.
Also, don't discount the fact that I firmly believe we have the better quarterback. In today's football, quarterback is by far the most important position on the field, and when all other things are equal..give me the team that's playing at home with the more talented, more experienced signal-caller whose been through the grind of an SEC season and played against NFL-caliber defensive linemen in 100,000 seat-stadiums. There's no downplaying how big of a role Patrick Towles will play in this game (and all games). The kid has been a winner his entire life, and I don't see him going down quietly any time soon.
He seemed pretty polite, but it's clear that he looks down upon us. I guess I can't really blame him, but I knew it was coming.
My take is that there's absolutely no way we get blown out (at home of all places) in a Thursday night, early-season home game. I'll be the first to admit it would be a really tough one to pull off, but the notion of us getting blown out is kind of silly.
We might not win..but a blowout? No..not happening. Sorry Mr. Auburn blogger. The last two times we've played Auburn we beat them in their own backyard and lost by a touchdown to their national championship winning-team in '10. We generally play well against Auburn...they don't scare me like an Alabama or LSU or even a Georgia.
I don't see either defense being able to stop the other team's offense (their D was almost as bad as ours last season) and I think at the end of the day, we have the better, more experienced QB, and a home crowd advantage.
Auburn is a really good team. A national championship-caliber team. But if we play like we're capable, and the defense can step up in some key moments, we'll have a good chance to beat them. I believe that. I think this team's going to step up and surprise some people (and no that's not just something I'm saying because it's close to the start of the season and I have an over-inflated sense of optimism). I've been saying all offseason that this year's team is going to be significantly better than people think, just as last year's team was.
If we could take Mississippi State to the wire last season, I see absolutely zero reason we can't do the same (or better) with a significantly improved team this season.
You all know as well as I do that this Kentucky team just plays at a different level in home games (especially home games that the team and coaches have circled on their calendar like this one). The players feed off of the crowd and usually raise their play in these type of "circle the wagons" games.
The two big ones we had circled last year were the South Carolina game and the Mississippi State game, and we rose to the occasion in both. I see this year's big home games (UT, UL, AU) being no different. We're a different team at home, and I'd be shocked if this isn't a game that comes down to the 4th quarter.
Also, don't discount the fact that I firmly believe we have the better quarterback. In today's football, quarterback is by far the most important position on the field, and when all other things are equal..give me the team that's playing at home with the more talented, more experienced signal-caller whose been through the grind of an SEC season and played against NFL-caliber defensive linemen in 100,000 seat-stadiums. There's no downplaying how big of a role Patrick Towles will play in this game (and all games). The kid has been a winner his entire life, and I don't see him going down quietly any time soon.
Last edited:
I think a lot of things could go wrong in this game. I'd be more likely to predict UK goes 11-1 than win this game. I don't think either are likely.
Thank goodness Acid and many others have no clue , and no mention of a great group of Red Shirts for Ky. This game will be much closer than Acid predicts. Don't miss this one!!
T
Malzahn's passing attack is a high school passing offense, if he has to depend on his qb throwing the ball to move it AU will not be very good this year. His offense all the way back to his HS days depends on him having a qb who is a threat to run the ball.
I do think UK is underestimating AU's overall talent level. They will have 3 5* kids on their defensive front 4, one missed last year and had 10 sacks as a true frosh, their qb while not the runner Marshall was he is much bigger and a fast guy himself. They will have the top JUCO RB last year at RB, if UK doesn't handled that dive without having to bring a S in for support the game could become a track meet. I don't think Muschamp is the DC many think he is, he never stopped anyone at Texas so why now? I think UK scores a lot of points, but if Malzahn gets that running game going, AU will too. Could be a track meet game, both teams like to play fast and it won't help either teams defensive stats.
Malzahn's passing attack is a high school passing offense, if he has to depend on his qb throwing the ball to move it AU will not be very good this year. His offense all the way back to his HS days depends on him having a qb who is a threat to run the ball.
I do think UK is underestimating AU's overall talent level. They will have 3 5* kids on their defensive front 4, one missed last year and had 10 sacks as a true frosh, their qb while not the runner Marshall was he is much bigger and a fast guy himself. They will have the top JUCO RB last year at RB, if UK doesn't handled that dive without having to bring a S in for support the game could become a track meet. I don't think Muschamp is the DC many think he is, he never stopped anyone at Texas so why now? I think UK scores a lot of points, but if Malzahn gets that running game going, AU will too. Could be a track meet game, both teams like to play fast and it won't help either teams defensive stats.
I'll probably get hammered for this. But, I can certainly see why the Auburn fan, or most any other SEC fan base for that matter, is predicting a blowout and a score in the 50's. UK's defense under Coach Stoops has been, to use a kinder-gentler term, porous at best--in fact, not much better, if any, than UK's Joker-era defenses. This has been my biggest disappointment in Coach Stoop's two years at UK.
I know, "Joker left the cupboard bare." But based on his first two defenses, I just don't see the rationale for a quantum leap in year three. (Hope I'm wrong!!) Recruiting has been, on paper, considerably better, and hopefully will translate into quality depth. But, the all-important defensive fundamentals under Coach Stoops have simply not improved--way too much arm tackling, blown pass coverages, defensive misalignments, dropped interceptions, inability to stop the opposition's running game, tendencies to attempt the "big hit" rather than just making the play (tackle or deflection), special teams breakdowns, etc., all of which plagued the Joker era.
Would love to see a reasoned argument, not emotionally based, stating why UK's defense in 2015 will be better that Coach Stoops' first two defenses at UK.
I know, "Joker left the cupboard bare." But based on his first two defenses, I just don't see the rationale for a quantum leap in year three. (Hope I'm wrong!!) Recruiting has been, on paper, considerably better, and hopefully will translate into quality depth. But, the all-important defensive fundamentals under Coach Stoops have simply not improved--way too much arm tackling, blown pass coverages, defensive misalignments, dropped interceptions, inability to stop the opposition's running game, tendencies to attempt the "big hit" rather than just making the play (tackle or deflection), special teams breakdowns, etc., all of which plagued the Joker era.
Would love to see a reasoned argument, not emotionally based, stating why UK's defense in 2015 will be better that Coach Stoops' first two defenses at UK.
As a long suffering UK fan, I truly hope you are right!!! But I was hoping for a response with a little more detail.
Well the biggest difference I've seen on the field the last two seasons vs the Joker era on defense has been in terms of approach angles and player position in general. Maybe this is wishful thinking but over the past two seasons I've seen many many times when a defender was in position to make a play in a 1 on 1 situation and either took a bad angle or just didn't make the tackle. That to me is on talent not coaching, coaches can only put the players in position. During the Joker era there were many long gains where the offensive player was never touched, and to me that indicates a problem with scheme as well as talent.
Last edited:
I suspect that by year 3 at FSU he had better players than he had in year 1 but FSU has seldom hurt for talent. However, the defense had become uncharacteristically average during Andrews' last few year there. Generally speaking, defense improves when talent improves.
The 2012 defense returned 5 starters and allowed 417 YPG. The 2013 defense returned 7 starters and allowed 439 YPG. The 2014 defense returned 8 starters and allowed 408 YPG. The 2015 defense will return 7 starters and allow ???. FWIW, Steele estimates the 2015 defense will allow ~403 YPG. Will UK have better talent this year? If so that will likely be determined by "new faces".
Peace
I'd say defense improves when the talent gains experience. Last season was the first in the system for Lewis, Johnson, Flanigan and Stamps as Jucos. I would expect they all should be improved from the experience gained last year. Forrest was a surprise starter at LB last year,was serviceable, don't think he played the position much prior, so again, I don't see why he wouldn't be an improved player at the position. Hatcher and McLain played as true frosh and never rs. They'll be Jrs. this season.So even though these are Sr. and Jr. they've been green with little time in the system. This season could be a turnaround for them. Of course a lot depends on depth behind them. A lot of that will likely be green but we won't have to rely so much on inexperienced players in the starting lineup. I'm cautiously optimistic and think the improvement on our D will be greater than Steele projects.
There's a lot of things that you guys need to account for as far as our defense goes.
When Stoops first arrived, he had a 4-3 defense with no talent. He recruited pretty well that year. Last year, he threw in a bit of 3-4, due to him making the transition to that defense from the 4-3 base, and recruited very well for the class of 2014. Redshirted a lot of talent, especially defensively. For this year, he has his full playbook, focused on the 3-4 base defense, implemented. A lot of good players are coming off a redshirt, and he's bringing in more good athletes. Some of which can possibly contribute immediately, and he's made the move to having players that can play both the safety, as well as the CB positions, which is a huge bonus. Also, Stoops has historically shown a dramatic improvement in his defenses in year 3, regardless of talent levels at each program.
When Stoops first arrived, he had a 4-3 defense with no talent. He recruited pretty well that year. Last year, he threw in a bit of 3-4, due to him making the transition to that defense from the 4-3 base, and recruited very well for the class of 2014. Redshirted a lot of talent, especially defensively. For this year, he has his full playbook, focused on the 3-4 base defense, implemented. A lot of good players are coming off a redshirt, and he's bringing in more good athletes. Some of which can possibly contribute immediately, and he's made the move to having players that can play both the safety, as well as the CB positions, which is a huge bonus. Also, Stoops has historically shown a dramatic improvement in his defenses in year 3, regardless of talent levels at each program.
I think the best arguments I can come up with are:
1. Seriously improved depth almost everywhere.
2. Having the personnel to finally play a true 3-4 base which is what Stoops has wanted to do from day one.
3. Historically significant improvement in Stoops' year 3 with a defense (as a DC) now as a head coach but you have to think that trend might well continue and that addresses some of the issues you cite such as misalignments, blown coverages etc.
That's a standard answer for the last few years... UK will play with them the first half and then they'll pull away... The reason being depth... I don't know that you can keep saying that with Kentucky.... Every year their depth is getting better and deeper....
i do think we, and the rest of the nation, is being a bit presumptive about the juggernaut that is auburn this year. i think they should be better than last year but they do have some question marks and if they negative instead of positive then this top 5 team is likely a borderline top 25 team. i think we have a punchers chance either way though... i'll bet malzahn doesn't overlook us near as bad as some predictions suggest.
And let's not forget that switching to a 3-4 from a 4-3 is notoriously difficult. I don't think I've ever seen a team make that transition seamlessly, though naturally because this is a Kentucky board Stoops may be the exception to that.
Similar threads
