Scouting Michigan State
Location: East Lansing, MI
Enrollment: 50,023
Conference: Big 10
Colors: Green and White
Mascot: Spartans
Head Coach: Tom Izzo (28th season - 667-268 career record)
2022-23 Schedule
Tuesday Nov. 1 GRAND VALLEY ST. (exhibition) W, 73-56
Monday Nov. 7 NORTHERN ARIZONA W, 73-55
Friday Nov. 11 vs. #2 Gonzaga L, 64-63
Game Information:
Tuesday Nov. 15 Kentucky vs Mich State #4 Kentucky
Time/TV: (ESPN) 7 p.m EST
ESPN: Dan Shulman (play-by-play)
Dick Vitale (analyst); Holly Rowe (sidelines)
Kentucky Sports Radio Network: Tom Leach
Last season’s record: 23-13
Starters lost: 3
Gabe Brown 6-8 215 Forward (top scorer, 38% 3fg, 3.8reb)
Max Christie 6-6 190 Guard (#2 scorer)
Marcus Bingham 7-0 230 Center (#3 scorer, top rebounder)
Other key players lost: 1
Julius Marble 6-9 245 Center (transferred to TX A&M)
Probable Starters
#11 G AJ Hoggard 6-4 210 Jr 10.5pts, 7.0ast, 2.5reb, 22% from 3 last season
#02 G Tyson Walker 6-0 175 Sr 9.0pts, 4.0ast, 3.0reb, 47% from 3 last season
#25 F Malik Hall 6-8 225 Sr 8.0pts, 7.0reb, 43% from 3 last season
#10 F Joey Hauser 6-9 230 Sr 10.0pts, 5.5reb, 41% from 3 last season
#22 C Mady Sissiko 6-9 235 Jr 9.0pts, 7.5reb, no 3pt threat
Bench
#03 G Jaden Akins 6-4 180 So 5.5pts, 1.5reb 38% from 3 last season
#01 G/F Pierre Brooks 6-6 225 So 9.5pts, 0.5reb, 45.5% from 3 this season
#00 C Jaxon Kohler 6-9 250 Fr 3.0pts, 5.5reb
#05 G Tre Holloman 6-2 175 Fr 3.0pts, 1.5reb
KenPom Analysis
Mich St Best Numbers
Overall defensive efficiency: #25 nationally
Effective FG defense: 41.7%: #49 nationally
Overall offensive efficiency: #36 nationally
Mich St Worst Numbers
Steal %- allowing steals on 11.6% of possessions; #282 nationally
Block %- 12.2% of shots blocked; #259 nationally
3pt %- 27.9% from 3: #257 nationally
TALE OF THE TAPE
UK STATISTIC MSU
86.0 Pts Per Game 68.0
44.0 Rebounds PG 39.0
21.0 Assists PG 14.0
8.0 Blocks PG 3.5
9.5 Steals PG 7.5
12.5 Turnovers PG 12.5
.504 FG Pct. .427
.512 3-Pt FG Pct. .279
.605 FT Pct. .667
1.7 Assist/TO Ratio 1.1
Analysis
Michigan State enters its game with Kentucky stinging from a loss to #1 Gonzaga last Friday that could have easily been a win for the Spartans. This was the Armed Forces Classic and was played aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln in San Diego, CA. Michigan State had a chance to win the game at the buzzer by Jaden Akins, but the shot didn’t fall. But there’s little time to be upset about that outcome because the Spartans must travel to the Gainbridge Fieldhouse (20,000 capacity) in Indianapolis for their Champions Classic matchup with Kentucky. The Wildcats and the Spartans play the opener this evening with Kansas and Duke playing the late game. Kentucky and Mich State have played 25 times and UK leads the series 14-11. Kentucky has won 2 of 3 Champions Classic games with Mich State, including the last 2 in a row.
(I wrote this back in August) According to various sources I've read, the off-season for Mich State went about as poorly as it could have gone. Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham both had another year of eligibility remaining (due to Covid) but both decided to forgo the extra year and enter the NBA draft. To make matters worse, up-and-coming would-be sophomore guard Max Christie (who ended up as #2 in scoring last season) decided to test the NBA waters as well and ended up signing with an agent, ending his eligibility. To add insult to injury, their presumed would-be starter at center, Julius Marble, decided to enter the transfer portal and ended up at TX A&M. (we'll see him later in the season) Many prognosticators expect Mich State to be at best a bubble team for the NCAA tournament this season and possibly could end the 24-year streak for the Spartans making the NCAA-T. That streak is tied for the 3rd longest in NCAA men's basketball history and is the 2nd longest active streak. Izzo's teams aren't built for early departures and their 2 incoming freshmen aren't expected to be immediate impact guys. They lack dynamic scorers who can create for themselves on this team.
When you look at the Spartans’ personnel, the strength of the returners is found in their backcourt. They return their 2 starting guards from a season ago. Their starting point guard is AJ Hoggard, a 6-4 210lb Junior who has averaged 10.5 points, 7.0 assists, and 2.5 rebounds in their 2 games so far. He is 0-3 on the season from 3pt range and has not been a very good 3pt shooter for his career with the Spartans. He shot 22% from 3 last season. His does his damage by getting into the lane and scoring on short jumpers and around the rim, and finding open men as a pass-first point. His partner in the backcourt is the other returning starter, shooting guard Tyson Walker, a 6-0 175lb Senior who has averaged 9.0 points, 4.0 assists, and 3.0reb in the first 2 games. He’s a much better 3pt shooter and has made 5-11 on the season for 45.5%. He shot 47% from 3 last season, so UK will have to keep a close eye on him. He will make open shots.
Back in August, I wasn’t sure which direction Izzo would go with his 5th starter, maybe to a guard or another forward. He decided to go big, which tells you about the pace he will prefer this season. That 5th starter has been Joey Hauser for the first 2 games. Hauser is a 6-9 230lb Senior forward who has averaged 10.0 points and 5.5 rebounds and has shot 4-11 from 3 in the first 2 games for 36.4%. He shot 41% from 3 last season, so he has that in his arsenal. The anchor down low for the Spartans is Mady Sissiko, a 6-9 235 Junior who has averaged 9.0 points and 7.5 rebounds in 2 games. He is built similarly to Oscar Tshiebwe, though he lacks Oscar’s skill. He is a big body, though, and will be a handful down low. The 3rd member of the frontcourt is the guy I expected would start at the 4, Malik Hall. He is a 6-8 225lb Senior averaging 8.0 points and 7.0 rebounds so far this season. He has shot 1-5 from 3 in their first 2 games, though he averaged 43% from 3 last season. From the bench, MSU’s 2 most important players are Guard Jaden Akins and 6-6 wing forward Pierre Brooks. We will see as much of those 2 as the starters.
Tom Izzo has decided to go big with his lineup early this season, perhaps because he knew he’d be facing Gonzaga and Kentucky and would need rebounding help. Their pace is also very deliberate so far this year. Even in their exhibition win, they only scored 73 points against Grand Valley State. And then in their opener against Northern Arizona, they scored 73 again. Against Gonzaga, they only scored 63. So, it’s pretty clear what Izzo’s plan is this season. Slow the game down, run the clock, limit opponents’ possessions, and keep the game in the low 70s for a final. The truth is, he doesn’t have many other options. He knows he can’t run with a team like Kentucky which has multiple scoring guards and love to push the pace.
My big questions for this game are about how Oscar Tshiebwe will play- will he be effective? Will he be in game shape, coming off this knee injury? Sissoko isn’t a great offensive threat but he will be a handful on the glass. How will Collins play if he plays? On paper, this should be a win for UK, but we all know Tom Izzo’s team will fight to the finish in this game and they will do their best to slow the pace and keep the game a low-scoring contest. UK will have to execute in the half-court in this game to win. Oscar returning will help immensely with that, if he can be effective. Even if he can rebound some, it will make this a much easier game. KenPom predicts UK 74 Mich St 66, Vegas line is UK-6.5 with an over/under of 141.5. My prediction: UK 78 Mich St 68
Location: East Lansing, MI
Enrollment: 50,023
Conference: Big 10
Colors: Green and White
Mascot: Spartans
Head Coach: Tom Izzo (28th season - 667-268 career record)
2022-23 Schedule
Tuesday Nov. 1 GRAND VALLEY ST. (exhibition) W, 73-56
Monday Nov. 7 NORTHERN ARIZONA W, 73-55
Friday Nov. 11 vs. #2 Gonzaga L, 64-63
Game Information:
Tuesday Nov. 15 Kentucky vs Mich State #4 Kentucky
Time/TV: (ESPN) 7 p.m EST
ESPN: Dan Shulman (play-by-play)
Dick Vitale (analyst); Holly Rowe (sidelines)
Kentucky Sports Radio Network: Tom Leach
Last season’s record: 23-13
Starters lost: 3
Gabe Brown 6-8 215 Forward (top scorer, 38% 3fg, 3.8reb)
Max Christie 6-6 190 Guard (#2 scorer)
Marcus Bingham 7-0 230 Center (#3 scorer, top rebounder)
Other key players lost: 1
Julius Marble 6-9 245 Center (transferred to TX A&M)
Probable Starters
#11 G AJ Hoggard 6-4 210 Jr 10.5pts, 7.0ast, 2.5reb, 22% from 3 last season
#02 G Tyson Walker 6-0 175 Sr 9.0pts, 4.0ast, 3.0reb, 47% from 3 last season
#25 F Malik Hall 6-8 225 Sr 8.0pts, 7.0reb, 43% from 3 last season
#10 F Joey Hauser 6-9 230 Sr 10.0pts, 5.5reb, 41% from 3 last season
#22 C Mady Sissiko 6-9 235 Jr 9.0pts, 7.5reb, no 3pt threat
Bench
#03 G Jaden Akins 6-4 180 So 5.5pts, 1.5reb 38% from 3 last season
#01 G/F Pierre Brooks 6-6 225 So 9.5pts, 0.5reb, 45.5% from 3 this season
#00 C Jaxon Kohler 6-9 250 Fr 3.0pts, 5.5reb
#05 G Tre Holloman 6-2 175 Fr 3.0pts, 1.5reb
KenPom Analysis
Mich St Best Numbers
Overall defensive efficiency: #25 nationally
Effective FG defense: 41.7%: #49 nationally
Overall offensive efficiency: #36 nationally
Mich St Worst Numbers
Steal %- allowing steals on 11.6% of possessions; #282 nationally
Block %- 12.2% of shots blocked; #259 nationally
3pt %- 27.9% from 3: #257 nationally
TALE OF THE TAPE
UK STATISTIC MSU
86.0 Pts Per Game 68.0
44.0 Rebounds PG 39.0
21.0 Assists PG 14.0
8.0 Blocks PG 3.5
9.5 Steals PG 7.5
12.5 Turnovers PG 12.5
.504 FG Pct. .427
.512 3-Pt FG Pct. .279
.605 FT Pct. .667
1.7 Assist/TO Ratio 1.1
Analysis
Michigan State enters its game with Kentucky stinging from a loss to #1 Gonzaga last Friday that could have easily been a win for the Spartans. This was the Armed Forces Classic and was played aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln in San Diego, CA. Michigan State had a chance to win the game at the buzzer by Jaden Akins, but the shot didn’t fall. But there’s little time to be upset about that outcome because the Spartans must travel to the Gainbridge Fieldhouse (20,000 capacity) in Indianapolis for their Champions Classic matchup with Kentucky. The Wildcats and the Spartans play the opener this evening with Kansas and Duke playing the late game. Kentucky and Mich State have played 25 times and UK leads the series 14-11. Kentucky has won 2 of 3 Champions Classic games with Mich State, including the last 2 in a row.
(I wrote this back in August) According to various sources I've read, the off-season for Mich State went about as poorly as it could have gone. Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham both had another year of eligibility remaining (due to Covid) but both decided to forgo the extra year and enter the NBA draft. To make matters worse, up-and-coming would-be sophomore guard Max Christie (who ended up as #2 in scoring last season) decided to test the NBA waters as well and ended up signing with an agent, ending his eligibility. To add insult to injury, their presumed would-be starter at center, Julius Marble, decided to enter the transfer portal and ended up at TX A&M. (we'll see him later in the season) Many prognosticators expect Mich State to be at best a bubble team for the NCAA tournament this season and possibly could end the 24-year streak for the Spartans making the NCAA-T. That streak is tied for the 3rd longest in NCAA men's basketball history and is the 2nd longest active streak. Izzo's teams aren't built for early departures and their 2 incoming freshmen aren't expected to be immediate impact guys. They lack dynamic scorers who can create for themselves on this team.
When you look at the Spartans’ personnel, the strength of the returners is found in their backcourt. They return their 2 starting guards from a season ago. Their starting point guard is AJ Hoggard, a 6-4 210lb Junior who has averaged 10.5 points, 7.0 assists, and 2.5 rebounds in their 2 games so far. He is 0-3 on the season from 3pt range and has not been a very good 3pt shooter for his career with the Spartans. He shot 22% from 3 last season. His does his damage by getting into the lane and scoring on short jumpers and around the rim, and finding open men as a pass-first point. His partner in the backcourt is the other returning starter, shooting guard Tyson Walker, a 6-0 175lb Senior who has averaged 9.0 points, 4.0 assists, and 3.0reb in the first 2 games. He’s a much better 3pt shooter and has made 5-11 on the season for 45.5%. He shot 47% from 3 last season, so UK will have to keep a close eye on him. He will make open shots.
Back in August, I wasn’t sure which direction Izzo would go with his 5th starter, maybe to a guard or another forward. He decided to go big, which tells you about the pace he will prefer this season. That 5th starter has been Joey Hauser for the first 2 games. Hauser is a 6-9 230lb Senior forward who has averaged 10.0 points and 5.5 rebounds and has shot 4-11 from 3 in the first 2 games for 36.4%. He shot 41% from 3 last season, so he has that in his arsenal. The anchor down low for the Spartans is Mady Sissiko, a 6-9 235 Junior who has averaged 9.0 points and 7.5 rebounds in 2 games. He is built similarly to Oscar Tshiebwe, though he lacks Oscar’s skill. He is a big body, though, and will be a handful down low. The 3rd member of the frontcourt is the guy I expected would start at the 4, Malik Hall. He is a 6-8 225lb Senior averaging 8.0 points and 7.0 rebounds so far this season. He has shot 1-5 from 3 in their first 2 games, though he averaged 43% from 3 last season. From the bench, MSU’s 2 most important players are Guard Jaden Akins and 6-6 wing forward Pierre Brooks. We will see as much of those 2 as the starters.
Tom Izzo has decided to go big with his lineup early this season, perhaps because he knew he’d be facing Gonzaga and Kentucky and would need rebounding help. Their pace is also very deliberate so far this year. Even in their exhibition win, they only scored 73 points against Grand Valley State. And then in their opener against Northern Arizona, they scored 73 again. Against Gonzaga, they only scored 63. So, it’s pretty clear what Izzo’s plan is this season. Slow the game down, run the clock, limit opponents’ possessions, and keep the game in the low 70s for a final. The truth is, he doesn’t have many other options. He knows he can’t run with a team like Kentucky which has multiple scoring guards and love to push the pace.
My big questions for this game are about how Oscar Tshiebwe will play- will he be effective? Will he be in game shape, coming off this knee injury? Sissoko isn’t a great offensive threat but he will be a handful on the glass. How will Collins play if he plays? On paper, this should be a win for UK, but we all know Tom Izzo’s team will fight to the finish in this game and they will do their best to slow the pace and keep the game a low-scoring contest. UK will have to execute in the half-court in this game to win. Oscar returning will help immensely with that, if he can be effective. Even if he can rebound some, it will make this a much easier game. KenPom predicts UK 74 Mich St 66, Vegas line is UK-6.5 with an over/under of 141.5. My prediction: UK 78 Mich St 68
