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Kentucky Derby thread

Glenn's take

All-American
May 20, 2012
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I'm just starting to look at the advance PPs and I'm thinking that it won't be much of a price this year. American Pharoah will be the favorite and probably rightly so. He was never asked for anything in the Arkansas Derby and won by 8. He has been on the lead or sitting right off in every race so there is no telling if he can rate. He could be more post compromised than most. Dortmund certainly gives Baffert a good 1-2 punch. He will probably be second choice but between those 2 I give Pharoah the edge. International Star is the top horse as far as points go but I really just think he's been beating up on a bunch of crap horses down at the Fairgrounds. Materiality is very, very, very intriguing but is battling history. He's be the first horse to win the Derby without a start as a 2 year old. He does have the highest Beyer in the field with a 110 in the Florida Derby. I don't think much of the rest of Pletcher's horses, even Carpe Diem. I don't think much of what was behind him in the Blue Grass and I just don't think he's fast enough. Frosted will definitely be on my Pick 4 ticket. He's certainly overcome the most adversity and his Wood Memorial was impressive. He was 4 wide on both turns and still won going away. The most interesting horse in the field may be Mubtaahij. The UAE Derby hasn't been much of a springboard for the Derby but now it's at least run on dirt instead of synthetic. Mike de Kock is one of the best trainers in the world, people just don't know it because he does it all overseas. I also don't mind the European jockey. He's always over here for the Breeder's Cup and is actually used to the 20 horse field unlike any American jockey. He may even be a bit of a price. The only other horses that I think much of at all right now are Upstart and Bolo. Bolo seems to have taken to the dirt well after not liking the grass.

An interesting stat. The last 16 Derbies have been won by 16 different trainers. That's kind of stunning that nobody can win 2 in 16 years.
 
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I always root for a horse that came through Keeneland in the Spring. Then maybe a certain trainer or horse from a Fayette County Farm. Can't help myself.

Carpe Diem ftwinplaceandshow.
 
Hard to see anyone other than Carpe Diem, Dortmund or American Pharaoh winning the race.

In fact, when AP arrived at CD he looked like a GD champion.

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Here's my take: I think this crop of 3 year olds is very talented. Maybe the most impressive since '01. But even still, I think it is a 2-horse race. American Pharoah's times and splits are *EEK* worthy. If his form holds on the Churchill dirt, no one can catch him.

Dortmund is a freak monster. Huge, but also speedy and agile. He reminds me of Easy Goer more than Big Brown, his daddy. However, his "look" and running style is similar to BB. I don't know how far he can go, but Dortmund has proven he can rate a little bit off the pace. The biggest thing is he enjoys looking a horse in the eye and battling him out to the wire as evidenced in his race with Firing Line.

After these two freaks, come the second level horses. These horses would be the cream of the crop any other year and need to be considered on any exotics. Here they are, listed in order of favoritism:
Frosted - Tapit colt with solid perfomances - throw out 1 race and he's as good as any.
Firing Line - The "forgotten" horse.
Carpe Diem - 1 Million Dollar purchase
Materiality - Unraced as a 2 year old is a big hurdle to jump, especially in this year's crop. But he looks great and is training great. Live shot to hit anywhere on the board.
International Star - Gutsy racehorce. A horseplayer's horse. He's just a lick below.
Upstart - Small setback with a temperature. Doesn't seem to have bothered him.
Mubtaahij - Could steal the race if the pace is hot. He could run 'em down in the stretch.
El-Kabier - Another courageous/mean horse. Gutsy, but a step slower than the best.


In any other year, any of ^those^ guys would get my $$$, but the two on top are just a bit too good IMO.

Love the Derby. It's my one day to get a little irresponsible. Good luck to all!
 
I always like to favor the winner of the Santa Anita Derby ever since one of my all-time favorites, Sunday Silence, beat Easy Goer to take the roses.

But since I don't follow the ponies too much theses days, I don't even know who that is.
 
Dortmund is the SA winner.

AP had been out west too, but a few setbacks in the winter sent him to Oaklawn where he has thrived.

This could be a SS/EG type of rivalry budding. They are both that great.
 
Secretariat is, and will remain, my favorite Thoroughbred of all time. But I will always have a soft spot in my heart for Easy Goer and Alydar. I'm leaning toward Dortmund for this year's Derby.
 
I like how the point system is working out rather than just basing it on graded stakes earnings. The thing I like about it best is that it is keeping out the horse whose owners, trainers and everybody else affiliated with the horse know he's a sprinter and nothing else but put them in a race they know they can't win just to say they ran in the Derby. Bodemeister could have won the triple crown a few years ago but some horse ridden by Willie Martinez that got in off graded stakes earnings is sprint races ran like a 46 opening half mile and Bodemeister ran after him. Had that horse not been in the race and the pace would have been a bit more sensible Bode may have held off I'll Have Another.
One interesting part of it is that you aren't likely to see a filly in the race until they change the rules. Lucas thought about running Take Charge Brandi in The Rebel to earn some points but pulled out.
 
Gulfstream was so slow this year, I wonder how good materiality really is, he will get a very nice price. AP just has a beautiful stride, would love to see he and Dortmund hit the turn together and have at it. I like Dortmund, he s my pick, he knows what he is out there for and will give it his all.
This is the first year in forever that the BlueGrass stakes winner is legit. If it isn't Dortmund, I'll gladly see Carpe Diem win it if possible.
 
American Pharoah and Materiality have not faced a field of 10 or more. Here's the trend: no horse has won the derby with out previously facing a field of 10 or more in at least the past 48 years...
 
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I don't know why I just noticed this but AP actually broke his maiden in a grade 1. He came in 5th in his maiden special weight race and went straight to the Delmar Futurity and won that. I can't remember another horse ever doing that.
 
Rare, but it happens. Whatever the reason, you see it more frequently with 2yo's on the Canadian circuit, but they'll make their first start in a stakes. ::confused guy smiley::

Two year old Mubtaaaaaij beat 3 and 4 year olds in a race back in December.


edit--going on memory, they may have been the race he broke his maiden in.
 
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I've got a big 4 of sorts. Mubtaahij, Dortmund, American Pharoah, and Carpe Diem. All super classy horses. I've been on Dortmund most of the year because of how he has handled some adversity and has that little something to where if he looks a horse in the eye he seems to always win.

But I'm probably going to end up on Mubtaahij in part because he'll be the best value/price of the 4, and I love several things about him. I know he'll get the distance, I know he'll handle being covered up in a big field, he's one horse that has proven he can close (I think he'll get the pace setup too), his last race was freaky, has an excellent turn of foot, De Kock is a great trainer (never out of the money with any horse he's shipped to the US so if he's coming he's sitting on a quality horse), and he's fit as he could be.

Him and Dortmund I have the fewest niggling questions about. AP appears to be awesome, but he's faced weak competition and had every race his own way. He has speed so he can make his own racing luck though. Also, while he looks like he'll run all day, his daddy wanted no part of that last furlong in his Derby. And I suspect he could end up in a pace duel scenario where he'll have a much tougher go of it than previously. Same for some others like Materiality and Firing Line. Like both of those horses as horses, but don't like the setup/race flow for them.

Carpe Diem makes me wonder about his pre-race antics. It hasn't hurt him yet, but this crowd could send him into a tizzy.

I also like Danzig Moon to hit the back end of exotics. Same potentially for Frosted.
 
^Nice post. One thing that really stood out with Dortmund early was his race back in November at CD. Baffert had options at home he could've used as a prep for the Hollywood Juvenile, but me thinks he knew he already had a Derby horse....a giant one at that. Dort's sire, Big Brown, has only one winner at the Derby distance, and his dam side, where you like to see stamina come from, is sprinty up close. All that said, if you like the big guy, then you have to also consider Firing Line. IMO.

Very stout field this year, and a lot of viable options on top,and under in the exotics. Frosted, International Star, Dort/Firing Line, Mub, Danzig Moon, Upstart, and War Story are in my mix. Lets see how they draw Wednesday though.
 
I don't think Espinosa will try and rate him as he'll have plenty of company with in Materiality, Stanford, Firing Line, etc...hell, even Dortmund, could be right up there too. In his 5 races, AP has only passed one horse which makes his pp draw even more important. I think they try a Bodemeister type run, except maybe this time, they hope they dont catch him.
 
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^Nice post. One thing that really stood out with Dortmund early was his race back in November at CD. Baffert had options at home he could've used as a prep for the Hollywood Juvenile, but me thinks he knew he already had a Derby horse....a giant one at that. Dort's sire, Big Brown, has only one winner at the Derby distance, and his dam side, where you like to see stamina come from, is sprinty up close. All that said, if you like the big guy, then you have to also consider Firing Line. IMO.

Very stout field this year, and a lot of viable options on top,and under in the exotics. Frosted, International Star, Dort/Firing Line, Mub, Danzig Moon, Upstart, and War Story are in my mix. Lets see how they draw Wednesday though.

I don't think Dortmund will have any issues with the distance. One reason being his gallop outs. He's always looked like he wants more.

Also, Baffert recently said that he's amazed at how much better he gets over CD than Santa Anita. The horse was still growing in recent months when he was still winning so I don't think we've even seen his best yet.

I do think he is the most logical winner. If him and Mubtaahij are fairly equal in price I would probably lean to Dortmund. But I'm like Mubtaahij because I'm thinking he might be the much better price of the 4 big ones I like.

I like Firing Line ... just not for this race. I'm expecting at worst a 46 half, maybe 45. I think the pace will be relatively hot. I think Dortmund can sit off it. I don't think Firing Line can, or will. I think they send him. I think there will be several pace casualties in this race, and FL will be one. Also, I don't think he wants that extra furlong on top of it. I look for him to spit the bit as they get into the stretch. I think he is a nice horse though. Obviously, if one has a high opinion of Dortmund you have to think FL is quality. Just not the right race flow for him imo.

And yes, the post draw is a factor. Although, I don't mind outside. Really, the spots I don't want a pick of mine to be in are on the inside. With a huge horse like Dortmund I actually think far outside could be his best spot.
 
Big Brown broke from post 20, which worked out just fine, and with Dortmund's size, getting that clean break is important. It's impressive watching him run. He makes it look so easy you dont realize how fast he's going until they show the splits.
 
I made a lot of money off Real Quiet. He threw a shoe in the SA Derby and ran 2nd to win the Derby. Dortmund threw one in the SA Derby and won. PP draw could change my mind, but I doubt it.

Don't know what to make of Mubtaahij. I've never been sold on the Dubai horses. If I like Dortmund I think I have to like Firing Line since they've run 1-2 in their races.
 
I bet Todd Pletcher is really, really mad right now. The 2 and 3 post for his best 2 horses. All of the other horses drew pretty well. AP got 18 but I think he can overcome that. Dortmund drew best at the 8.


1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Elvis Trujillo James Cassidy 50-1

2 Carpe Diem John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 8-1

3 Materiality Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 12-1

4 Tencendur Manny Franco George Weaver 30-1

5 Danzig Moon Julien Leparoux Mark Casse 30-1

6 Mubtaahij Christophe Soumillon Michael de Kock 20-1

7 El Kabeir Calvin Borel John P. Terranova, II 30-1

8 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 3-1

9 Bolo Rafael Bejarano Carla Gaines 30-1

10 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan 12-1

11 Stanford Florent Geroux Todd Pletcher 30-1

12 International Star Miguel Mena Michael Maker 20-1

13 Itsaknockout Luis Saez Todd Pletcher 30-1

14 Keen Ice Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 50-1

15 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin 15-1

16 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss 50-1

17 Mr. Z Ramon Vazquez D. Wayne Lukas 50-1

18 American Pharoah Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert 5-2

19 Upstart Jose Ortiz Rick Violette 15-1

20 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett 30-1
 
18 is a great draw for AP. Outside posts have done well in recent years. Also, to his inside are all either closers or lesser class horses. Mr. Z is the only one with speed to screw with him ... but it's the same owners so surely he'll have instructions to let AP go. Outside of him Far Right will drop back immediately. Not sure about Upstart, but AP is quicker so he shouldn't have a problem with him coming over on him. AP should be able to clear all of those handful inside of him with ease before the first turn and take up a nice stalking position on the outside. He'll have to go a shade wide but with a horse that quality that never bothers me. Great draw for him.

Pletchers' 2 got the worst of it.
 
I made a lot of money off Real Quiet. He threw a shoe in the SA Derby and ran 2nd to win the Derby. Dortmund threw one in the SA Derby and won. PP draw could change my mind, but I doubt it.

Don't know what to make of Mubtaahij. I've never been sold on the Dubai horses. If I like Dortmund I think I have to like Firing Line since they've run 1-2 in their races.

I've never liked a Dubai horse for this race, not even Arazi, but I love Mubtaahij. I have about 8 or 9 reasons why, but the biggest ones are he's got the best distance breeding (he will run all day), he's a proven closer in a race I think will have a pretty fast pace, and his trainer doesn't ship horses he doesn't think can win (has run 6 in America, none out of the money, and none lost by more than 1.5 lengths). That horse will be running on late and picking off horses left and right. Might be more of a candidate for 2-4th because the speedy favorites in this race are of such quality that maybe they don't come back or slow down enough, but that is one horse that will be coming all the way to the wire.

I love Dortmund, and have since January. Because of that I also like Firing Line, but not for this race as I don't think his breeding suggests 1 1/4, and think he will be most effective at 1 1/16 or so. Think he tires late.
 
Gulfstream was so slow this year, I wonder how good materiality really is,
I didn't realize this until I looked at they Beyers for the Wood, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby and Bluegrass. All 4 were 1 1/8 miles. Dortmund won Santa Anita and ran the fastest at 1:48 3/5 and got a 106. Carpe Diem won the Bluegrass and ran it in 1:49 3/5 and got a 95. Frosted won the Wood in 1:50 1/5 and got a 103. Materiality won the Florida Derby in 1:52 1/5 and got a 110. Materiality was almost 4 seconds slower than Dortmund and still got a Beyer 4 points higher. Almost 2 seconds slower than Carpe Diem and Materiality got a 15 point higher Beyer. Gulfstream was running really, really slow.

I don't know why I didn't look at Arkansas too but AP got a 105 running in in 1:48 2/5. Almost 4 seconds faster and still a Beyer 5 points below.
 
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The TV telecast of the Derby gets worse every year. I think from now on I'll just turn it on when it's post time.
 
I can't stand baffert. He's a wannabe white haired John robic. I think he looks forward to this every year so if he finally wins he parade his ego for everyone to see. He finally wins. His stupid comment about showing the horses and jockeys the UK Wisconsin game was just that. If you need to see what douchebag looks like you will see his picture in the dictionary. If not there he's doing his other job. Checking his o face in the mirror after he finally wins one.
 
American Pharoah is a damn good horse but I'm not gonna think triple crown till a horse actually crosses that finish line in the Belmont.
 
Race set up perfect for American Pharoah and he did not disappoint. Doubt he will get that pace in The Preakness.
 
Should have just been a 3 horse race. No big come from behind this year those 3 led the entire race. Mind you I am not an expert but I like watching the Triple Crown races.
 
The thing about a horse like AP is that he can pretty much create whatever pace scenario he wants as long as Espinoza doesn't mess him up. He's proven to have the ability to be on the lead if that's what the pace dictates or rate right off the leaders if he wants to do that.
 
This horse wins triple crown

Will have it to do.

AP ran very well on Sat. But that said he had a pretty nice trip and Victor had to whip him 32 times in the stretch to basically get the same thing as previous hand rides. Felt the closers were compromised by the pedestrian pace. Frosted would have been right there with a hotter pace imo. And Dortmund uncharacteristically didn't have it late. Baffert said he was colic-y after his last work and they almost didn't ship him. I have to think that might have played a role. He can run better than he did, as he has before. I expect a bigger effort from him in the Preakness.

Also, Materiality ran a monster race. Broke bad and the pace compromised him as well. He ran huge all things considered. I think that horse may still have as much raw talent as any of them before it's all said and done.

To win the Preakness he's probably have to face at least Dortmund, Firing Line and Competitive Edge. Firing Line had 6 weeks before the Derby, came out of it fine, and should appreciate the 1/16 shorter distance. He will be a handful in there. Dortmund may have not been totally 100%. Expect him to run huge there. And Competitive Edge may be best at a mile or less, but the fact is he's a big time racehorse. A G1 winner that just set a stakes record and nobody has ever gotten close to him. He's a factor. Could potentially be a Bernardini/Red Bullet/Touch Gold type.

Also, I'm assuming that Materiality skips the Preakness for these purposes. If not he's a HUGE threat.

Then in the Belmont, he will have to face Frosted, Materiality, and Mubtaahij, and they would be fresh. All would be better bred for the distance and more fresh. All would be well suited to 1.5 miles and all potentially sitting on their best race yet. And yes, I include Mubtaahij because he's best bred for it, and the barn wouldn't be staying here to run if they didn't feel he had some excuse in the Derby. NOt their style. HIs run was odd. He was moving up the rail and was in 5th, and just flat out stopped in the last 100-200 yards. With his breeding that seems to denote something went wrong. Honestly, it looked like he might have bled a touch. He was without lasix. If they give him lasix for the Belmont that would confirm it and he would have a major shot.

Either way, it looks to me like AP will have to beat 3 talented, sharp horses in the Preakness. Then come back on short rest, at a distance he isn't bred for, and beat 3 more talented horses that are fresher and better suited to the distance. That is a TALL task. AP is very nice, but not sure he's up to that.
 
I don't get all the super-horse talk about American Pharoah. He finished the derby in 2:03.02 on a fast track. That is not that special compared to past winners. Secretariat would have beaten AP by nearly 20 lengths (assuming 5-6 lengths per second).
 
I don't get all the super-horse talk about American Pharoah. He finished the derby in 2:03.02 on a fast track. That is not that special compared to past winners. Secretariat would have beaten AP by nearly 20 lengths (assuming 5-6 lengths per second).
I get the argument about final time but not all tracks are made the same. Look at my earlier post about how Materiality had a fastest last out Beyer but ran 2-4 seconds slower than AP, Dortmund, Frosted and Carpe Diem.
 
I don't get all the super-horse talk about American Pharoah. He finished the derby in 2:03.02 on a fast track. That is not that special compared to past winners. Secretariat would have beaten AP by nearly 20 lengths (assuming 5-6 lengths per second).

Doesn't work like that. The track impacts final times. He got a 105 Beyer fig. By comparison Private Zone, a fast older horse, got a 95 and Competitive Edge in breaking a stakes record got a 102. And with so much time in between the Derby and the race before it the track often changes some.

Like someone said Materiality got a 110 Beyer for his FL Derby, and the final time was very slow, but the track was playing extremely slow.

I thought it was a solid 105 type race. Not terribly fast, but ok. The main issue I had with it was Victor had to whip him 32 times in the stretch to get basically the same race he had run in hand rides previously. Just makes me wonder if he's just a 105 horse no matter what. To be truly special he's going to have to run faster.
 
Randy Moss (no NFL WR) said that if AP had run that race on the 2012 surface, he would have been under 2:02. I have no idea how they figure that, but I figure it's worth mentioning.

Firing Line is said to be thriving right now. It'll take a huge effort to beat this one again.
 
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