Just picked up my 2015 Phil Steele magazine...

[WildCard]

One of my first "areas of study" is to adjust his Plus/Minus Ratings for home field and take a look at what that means for UofL and UK's schedules. In recent years this has proven to be a fairly accurate "predictor" of overall season results as well as a good guess at pre-season spreads.

FWIW, assuming a win over EKU this "analysis" puts the Cats at 5-7 this year. However, per these numbers, 3 of their games are Pick 'Ems. Cats look to be less than 1 point favs against FL and Vandy and a less than 1 point 'dawg against UofL. Per these numbers, those 3 games are the real "swing games" for the season overall. Assuming my additions and subtractions were correct the actual numbers are:

ULL: UK -15.4
@SC: UK +7.2
FL: UK -0.4 (pick 'em)
MO: UK +7.8
AU: UK +13.2
@MSU: UK +12.5
TN: UK +9.2
@GA: UK +22.7
@Vandy: UK -0.5 (pick 'em)
Charlotte: UK -35.7 (Whew! Charlotte #128 of 128 teams)
UofL: UK +0.2 (pick 'em)

Peace

 

[The Public Enemy]

Where did you get the magazine

 

[WildCard]

Where did you get the magazine

Barnes and Noble; the one out at The Paddock or whatever they call The Summit now.

Peace

 

[jnewc2]

One of my first "areas of study" is to adjust his Plus/Minus Ratings for home field and take a look at what that means for UofL and UK's schedules. In recent years this has proven to be a fairly accurate "predictor" of overall season results as well as a good guess at pre-season spreads.

FWIW, assuming a win over EKU this "analysis" puts the Cats at 5-7 this year. However, per these numbers, 3 of their games are Pick 'Ems. Cats look to be less than 1 point favs against FL and Vandy and a less than 1 point 'dawg against UofL. Per these numbers, those 3 games are the real "swing games" for the season overall. Assuming my additions and subtractions were correct the actual numbers are:

ULL: UK -15.4
@SC: UK +7.2
FL: UK -0.4 (pick 'em)
MO: UK +7.8
AU: UK +13.2
@MSU: UK +12.5
TN: UK +9.2
@GA: UK +22.7
@Vandy: UK -0.5 (pick 'em)
Charlotte: UK -35.7 (Whew! Charlotte #128 of 128 teams)
UofL: UK +0.2 (pick 'em)

Peace

Have a feeling Coach Stoops would be none too pleased with what he calls a "significantly improved team" having a 5-7 record

 

[footballfanatic77]

One of my first "areas of study" is to adjust his Plus/Minus Ratings for home field and take a look at what that means for UofL and UK's schedules. In recent years this has proven to be a fairly accurate "predictor" of overall season results as well as a good guess at pre-season spreads.

FWIW, assuming a win over EKU this "analysis" puts the Cats at 5-7 this year. However, per these numbers, 3 of their games are Pick 'Ems. Cats look to be less than 1 point favs against FL and Vandy and a less than 1 point 'dawg against UofL. Per these numbers, those 3 games are the real "swing games" for the season overall. Assuming my additions and subtractions were correct the actual numbers are:

ULL: UK -15.4
@SC: UK +7.2
FL: UK -0.4 (pick 'em)
MO: UK +7.8
AU: UK +13.2
@MSU: UK +12.5
TN: UK +9.2
@GA: UK +22.7
@Vandy: UK -0.5 (pick 'em)
Charlotte: UK -35.7 (Whew! Charlotte #128 of 128 teams)
UofL: UK +0.2 (pick 'em)

Peace

Even though I think the Cats are going to be substantially better this year I do think the schedule is going to be tougher than last year. If they can pull out six wins and a bowl game that would be an enormous step forward. I really think Louisville loses this year in Lexington, I don't think that's a stretch at all given the depth chart of both teams and the fact that UK gets them at home.

 

[jauk11]

"Have a feeling Coach Stoops would be none too pleased with what he calls a "significantly improved team" having a 5-7 record"


I wouldn't be nearly as concerned about how Stoops was pleased compared to my concern about how the UK fans would react.

Fortunately I don't think we will have that situation to worry about.

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Even though I think the Cats are going to be substantially better this year I do think the schedule is going to be tougher than last year. If they can pull out six wins and a bowl game that would be an enormous step forward. I really think Louisville loses this year in Lexington, I don't think that's a stretch at all given the depth chart of both teams and the fact that UK gets them at home.

The schedule is tougher? They have the 3 OOC teams they should beat, UL at home (who they should and will beat IMO), and then just need to win 2/5 against Vandy, FL, SC, Missouri and MSU. I'm not going to mention the other 3 games as I doubt they are likely wins, but come on now...schedule seems set up for 6 wins or more to me. The only issue I have is Vandy, SC and MSU are on the road. The latter having Dak back makes that game a lot tougher than it would have been.

It all really depends on the first four games. UK wins 3/4, they are 100% going bowling IMO. If they go 2-2, fairly good shape. 1-3? Probably not looking that good. The times of bowing down to SC, FL and Missouri is over. UK has to win a game or two of that stretch. They need to beat FL...after last year we owe them. That game needs to be a win. There is never an easy schedule with SEC play, but 8 home games this year make me hopeful UK can win at least 6.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Our schedules never pan out how we expect in the preseason. No one could have predicted that MSU would come in to CWS as the #1 team in the country. Very few would have predicted that South Carolina would end up 6-6 after having beaten a very highly ranked UGA team. On the other hand, I don't think we expected Candy to be THAT bad nor did we expect UF to be so definitely beatable in the swamp.

For this year, I think the positive is that we don't appear to have many POWERHOUSE teams on the schedule (maybe just AU and UGA?). The negative is that there don't appear to be a ton of dogs either :

-ULL is decent, and certainly a lot better than TN Martin.
-USC, UF, and Mizzou are all going to be good (or maybe one of them ends up "great"?)
-Miss state returns a star qb, but loses a lot of others.
-UT seems to be ascending. Still a year away or an east contender?
-UL would seem to take a dip, but Petrino's track record suggest that year 2 will bring improvement. What trend is bucked this year?

Lots of unknowns. If Mark Stoops is a very good-to-great coach and is able to develop the young talent at a rapid pace, then this is a great schedule b/c there are very few definite losses. If he is merely an average coach (or a poor one) and / or if we have bad luck (injuries, turnovers, etc), then we could be looking at a 4-8 disaster.

 

[WildCard]

I saw a couple of posts regarding schedules. Steele lists the toughest schedules per the NCAA method of ranking same as well as his own rankings. The NCAA rankings are nothing more than last year's W/L records collectively applied to this year's schedule. By this methodology UK will play the #5 toughest schedule with this year's opponents having collectively won 62% of their games last year. The flaws in this simplistic approach are obvious.

As you might expect Steele puts a lot more into it using projected performances for the coming year as well as home and away considerations. By his methodology UK's 2015 schedule ranks #42 in difficulty.

Peace

 

[The Public Enemy]

Barnes and Noble; the one out at The Paddock or whatever they call The Summit now.

Peace

Thanks...picked mine up at Barnes and Noble on Hurstbourne

 

[footballfanatic77]

The schedule is tougher? They have the 3 OOC teams they should beat, UL at home (who they should and will beat IMO), and then just need to win 2/5 against Vandy, FL, SC, Missouri and MSU. I'm not going to mention the other 3 games as I doubt they are likely wins, but come on now...schedule seems set up for 6 wins or more to me. The only issue I have is Vandy, SC and MSU are on the road. The latter having Dak back makes that game a lot tougher than it would have been.

It all really depends on the first four games. UK wins 3/4, they are 100% going bowling IMO. If they go 2-2, fairly good shape. 1-3? Probably not looking that good. The times of bowing down to SC, FL and Missouri is over. UK has to win a game or two of that stretch. They need to beat FL...after last year we owe them. That game needs to be a win. There is never an easy schedule with SEC play, but 8 home games this year make me hopeful UK can win at least 6.

In 2014 Kentucky played 3 OOC games they should have won (and did). UL will be at CWS so that should improve the odds of victory.

In conference,

• South Carolina will get home field advantage and should be at least marginally better;
• Tennessee should be substantially better;
• I wouldn't be surprised to see Auburn win the West;
• Georgia should be excellent, assuming they don't pull a Mark Richt;
• Missouri is Missouri, I'm tired of underestimating them;
• Mississippi State shouldn't be as tough, but I don't think they are a pushover either;
• Vanderbilt and Florida seem likely to be about the same as last year or perhaps marginally improved.

But, who really knows? There are always a few surprises. I do think the next step is to win a true upset game at home. Then once they have learned how to win they'll start winning on the road. Winning on the road seems to be the last thing teams learn how to do. If I was a gambler, I would put money on UK beating Vanderbilt, Florida, Louisville, and the three OOC games with a possible victory against 1 of Missouri, Mississippi State or South Carolina.

 

[DACats86]

In 2014 Kentucky played 3 OOC games they should have won (and did). UL will be at CWS so that should improve the odds of victory.

In conference,

• South Carolina will get home field advantage and should be at least marginally better;
• Tennessee should be substantially better;
• I wouldn't be surprised to see Auburn win the West;
• Georgia should be excellent, assuming they don't pull a Mark Richt;
• Missouri is Missouri, I'm tired of underestimating them;
• Mississippi State shouldn't be as tough, but I don't think they are a pushover either;
• Vanderbilt and Florida seem likely to be about the same as last year or perhaps marginally improved.

But, who really knows? There are always a few surprises. I do think the next step is to win a true upset game at home. Then once they have learned how to win they'll start winning on the road. Winning on the road seems to be the last thing teams learn how to do. If I was a gambler, I would put money on UK beating Vanderbilt, Florida, Louisville, and the three OOC games with a possible victory against 1 of Missouri, Mississippi State or South Carolina.

I ask you to look at the returning players and tell me how USC will be better? Granted, the game is in Columbia, but this could be one of Spurrier's least talented teams since arriving at USC.

 

[JHB4UK]

I ask you to look at the returning players and tell me how USC will be better? Granted, the game is in Columbia, but this could be one of Spurrier's least talented teams since arriving at USC.

Exactly. It is a giant mystery why everyone, fans & media alike, don't realize the South Carolina is on a steep downward trend? Guess Steve Superior is just that much respected and beloved by the CFB community. They were 6-6 last year, and damn lucky to be that due to bad playcalling from Grumpy's Dawgs and Muschamp meltdown. Have zero experience or great talent at QB. Their defense was horrific, and the talent or coaching is not gonna be better this season.

Honestly I've thought all offseason that UK goes into Columbia in week 2 and wins rather easily, and nothing that has occurred with them or us has changed that stance. Much more confident we beat USC than in wins against Mizzou or Miss St.

 

[laxcat#5]

South Carolina opens the season on a Thursday against a quality opponent (UNC), so that hurts us in that they will have 2 extra days to recover and face an SEC quality team in the opener.

 

[JHB4UK]

South Carolina opens the season on a Thursday against a quality opponent (UNC), so that hurts us in that they will have 2 extra days to recover and face an SEC quality team in the opener.

well, pluses and minuses to that. Quality opponent, so they cannot afford to hold anything back, their very best plays/players will be fully on display. With us we probably can keep some stuff close to the vest against ULL that USC will not be able to prepare for.

And playing a quality opponent should mean their starters are in for almost the entire game, more risk of injuries and wear/tear, whereas if we win relatively comfortably backups can get in for snaps giving our front line a break.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Eh, I dunno (re: USC Jr). Spurrier has recruited well there and has stockpiled more solid classes than have we. Plus, he is still Spurrier who is an excellent coach that has something like a 19-2 record (I didn't look it up, but I am sure of the "2" part) against us. Had to laugh at the guy who think we go in there and "win easily" in week 2 on a saturday night.

With that said, Vegas has given USC the 3rd-worst odds of winning the conference (ahead of only Vandy and UK). The defense sucked last year (only slightly worse than ours). They are breaking in a new QB. So, it's certainly a game that's "winnable".

 

[JHB4UK]

Sorry I follow college football closer than you & realize we are playing a coach at the end of the line not the guy who ran up the score at will against us in the 90's. It's 2015, come join us in this century and stop being afraid and intimidated by the guy, 65-0 happened a long time ago.

 

[DACats86]

Eh, I dunno (re: USC Jr). Spurrier has recruited well there and has stockpiled more solid classes than have we. Plus, he is still Spurrier who is an excellent coach that has something like a 19-2 record (I didn't look it up, but I am sure of the "2" part) against us. Had to laugh at the guy who think we go in there and "win easily" in week 2 on a saturday night.

With that said, Vegas has given USC the 3rd-worst odds of winning the conference (ahead of only Vandy and UK). The defense sucked last year (only slightly worse than ours). They are breaking in a new QB. So, it's certainly a game that's "winnable".

UK fans have beaten wife syndrome. UK's talent and experience is starting to compare favorably with many of our opponents. Do a player by player comparison.

 

[shutzhund]

I'm hoping for six regular season games. Anything better I don't know where it will come from. One little OCC game slip and we have to beat three SEC teams. With three OOC games we still have to beat UL and two SEC teams to reach six. Not a card lock by any means for a team that went 2-2-5 the previous three years.

Now, next year I have much more confidence. But this year we're on the razors edge of development for six wins.

The posters who predict seven and even (for crying out loud) eight should should never gamble. They, however, deserve some reward for blind optimism. Vegas is not known for handing those out.

 

[TBCat]

I saw a couple of posts regarding schedules. Steele lists the toughest schedules per the NCAA method of ranking same as well as his own rankings. The NCAA rankings are nothing more than last year's W/L records collectively applied to this year's schedule. By this methodology UK will play the #5 toughest schedule with this year's opponents having collectively won 62% of their games last year. The flaws in this simplistic approach are obvious.

As you might expect Steele puts a lot more into it using projected performances for the coming year as well as home and away considerations. By his methodology UK's 2015 schedule ranks #42 in difficulty.

Peace

If he thinks there are 41 tougher schedules out there then he might want to put a little more thought into it. The schedule will not be as bad as last year but it is easily top 20. I'm sure part of that ranking is based on 8 home games but still.

 

[dorkmeister]

Its going to be great to beat UF. We have as much talent as them and, with stability at coaching, we are in a better position than them.

I think we beat all the teams he has us beating plus USCjr, MO and MSU. I know we will win 6 games this season and 7 looks pretty solid bet. I know the 8th win is a harder time but we all know we have the talent and now we just need to show it on the field.

6 wins: This is a "gimme"
7 wins: Should happen
8 wins: Punchers chance

 

[hmt5000]

I saw a couple of posts regarding schedules. Steele lists the toughest schedules per the NCAA method of ranking same as well as his own rankings. The NCAA rankings are nothing more than last year's W/L records collectively applied to this year's schedule. By this methodology UK will play the #5 toughest schedule with this year's opponents having collectively won 62% of their games last year. The flaws in this simplistic approach are obvious.

As you might expect Steele puts a lot more into it using projected performances for the coming year as well as home and away considerations. By his methodology UK's 2015 schedule ranks #42 in difficulty.

Peace

I agree. No way this year's schedule is as tough as last year.

 

[Deeeefense]

Even though I think the Cats are going to be substantially better this year I do think the schedule is going to be tougher than last year. .

I don't see it that way. I see Florida and MSU as being not as strong. Two teams we lost to last year that figure to be down: Potential net +2

I see UofL down a little and we pick up home field: Potential net +1

I see Tennessee as being much better a team we lost to. Net 0

I see South Carolina about the same but they get home field: Potential -1

Missouri about the same but we pick up home field: Potential +1

Auburn replaces LSU on the schedule but we get home field: Net 0

All other teams about the same: Net 0

Add it up and things look much more favorable than last year IMO>

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

I have to wait to pick mine up or I will have no reading on Beach because I will just finish on 1st day

 

[footballfanatic77]

I ask you to look at the returning players and tell me how USC will be better? Granted, the game is in Columbia, but this could be one of Spurrier's least talented teams since arriving at USC.

Because I think they will be slightly improved on defense and I never underestimate Steve Spurrier. Frankly I don't think he will ever recapture the magic of those 3 11-win seasons, but I also don't expect another 6-6 regular season. I expect they will win a game or two more. I think you are slightly underestimating their talent level.

 

[buckkiller]

Starting this year Kentuckys roster will have more talent year in year out then UL as long as Stoops temains coach. We start a,significant win streak against them this year. To say the UL game is a,stretch for us to win is an absolute joke! The Roster of Kentucky's team head and shoulders better then UL'S.

 

[Cats78]

He has the UK vs UL game as a pick'em?? That's weird, I thought it was only delusional UK fans that thought UK could come remotely close to even competing with the juggernaut that is UofL football.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Sorry I follow college football closer than you & realize we are playing a coach at the end of the line not the guy who ran up the score at will against us in the 90's. It's 2015, come join us in this century and stop being afraid and intimidated by the guy, 65-0 happened a long time ago.

LOL...OK internet tough guy. Not sure how you know you "follow college football closer than me" but all I know is that this coach is two years removed from 3 straight 11 win seasons. Not exactly washed up. And the guy has won about 19 games against us and lost 2, he knows how to beat us. I'm not intimidated by him, I don't have to coach against him. Settle down.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

UK fans have beaten wife syndrome. UK's talent and experience is starting to compare favorably with many of our opponents. Do a player by player comparison.

Yes, we probably do, but do your homework. Is our talent better. Absolutely. Are still getting less talent than most of our conference brethren? Absolutely. Play UL's schedule and we could probably start expecting immediate W-L improvement. Play our schedule, and we're still playing teams with equal or better talent than us 7-9 weeks of every 12 week season.

I'm not being pessimistic, I'm just being honest.

 

[WildCard]

He has the UK vs UL game as a pick'em?? That's weird, I thought it was only delusional UK fans that thought UK could come remotely close to even competing with the juggernaut that is UofL football.

Ummm, no; not exactly.

Using his published "Plus/Minus" ratings and adjusting for home field has UofL a less than 1 point favorite (i.e., a pick 'em game. In the past I have found this to be a pretty good pre-season indication of what to expect interns of W/L record; not actual game spread. HOWEVER, these numbers ARE NOT the actual Power Poll ratings which would actually represent his predicted spread. Nonetheless, these numbers are often eerily close on a spread for a game some 4-6 months in the future.

He does not publish his actual Power Poll numbers, only a ranking of teams from #1 - #128. On that point the Cards are ranked #37 and UK ranked #58. In his write up about UK he notes; "My main set of power ratings calls for 6 wins...". OTOH, his bowl projections (a real bit of pre-season nonsense) do not have the Cats in a bowl and I think we all "know" a 6 win UK team is going to some bowl.

Peace

 

[vhcat70]

Since we have Phil's views, do we really need to play the games?

 

[homerblue]

We were basicaly a 7 win team last year against a much tougher schedule. That is our base that we will improve upon. We were in contention for the east halfway into the season. We win 9 this year and finish second to uga in the east. These idiots that write this crap dont know what they are talking about!! Has Steele even been to a single UK practice? NO! They dont know what we know and it is going to blow up in all these UK haters face this year. If you think the media hates us because we own basketball, they are going to die with jealousy when we start dominating the SEC in football.

 

[footballfanatic77]

We were basicaly a 7 win team last year against a much tougher schedule. That is our base that we will improve upon. We were in contention for the east halfway into the season. We win 9 this year and finish second to uga in the east. These idiots that write this crap dont know what they are talking about!! Has Steele even been to a single UK practice? NO! They dont know what we know and it is going to blow up in all these UK haters face this year. If you think the media hates us because we own basketball, they are going to die with jealousy when we start dominating the SEC in football.

I don't see how you get "much tougher." Some may think it will be easier, some may think it will be slightly tougher (count me as one of these), but it's certainly not going to be MUCH easier. And I realize your name is "homer" but I'm not sure whether you are being serious about winning 9 games and finishing 2nd behind Georgia or facetious. To be a fan doesn't mean one needs to be crazy.

 

[jauk11]

"To be a fan doesn't mean one needs to be crazy." Quote

While I agree with most of your post to be a UK football fans for decades it seems to me it would certainly help to be a little crazy, however if you only jump in when things start looking up you can probably afford to be a little more rational.

I think our schedule is a little easier, but when you play eight SEC teams and UL it will never be a picnic. I do expect to be a lot more competitive soon, but for now everyone taking even the Vandy game for granted are on shaky ground. Should we win it, yes, should TOBC have beaten us in 10, probably even more true, but they didn't.

I think we are likely to win seven games, but I will be happy with a bowl game. The extra practice will help also.

 

[footballfanatic77]

"To be a fan doesn't mean one needs to be crazy." Quote

While I agree with most of your post to be a UK football fans for decades it seems to me it would certainly help to be a little crazy, however if you only jump in when things start looking up you can probably afford to be a little more rational.

I think our schedule is a little easier, but when you play eight SEC teams and UL it will never be a picnic. I do expect to be a lot more competitive soon, but for now everyone taking even the Vandy game for granted are on shaky ground. Should we win it, yes, should TOBC have beaten us in 10, probably even more true, but they didn't.

I think we are likely to win seven games, but I will be happy with a bowl game. The extra practice will help also.

It's nice that we finally mostly agree on something. Of course, I grew up in Kentucky so I've always rooted for Kentucky even if I rooted for another (hated) team too. I'm only 27 and didn't really get into football until I was around 12, so I can't really say I've been a fan for decades. But, almost.

 

[Caveman Catfan]

We were a five win team last year. We were not better than our record. We improved a great deal from the previous year and the hope is that the trend of improvement will continue as our team gains experience. We played a ton of youth the past two years and had a number of first year Jucos playing significant minutes on defense last year. The hope has a foundation. But, we were a five win team last year.

 

[CatDaddy4daWin]

I believe it's hard for folks like Steele to really gauge the progress this Kentucky program is making, which is why I think 5-7 is truly worse case scenario for us. I truly feel like the potential is there for us to have a really special season, compared to what we've had to endure the last few years.

 

[WildCard]

I believe it's hard for folks like Steele to really gauge the progress this Kentucky program is making, which is why I think 5-7 is truly worse case scenario for us. I truly feel like the potential is there for us to have a really special season, compared to what we've had to endure the last few years.

You are right...but also wrong. Fans are "closer to the program" and usually gauge progress on what they see as improved returnees, talented newcomers and local media coverage, which, IMO, usually leans toward the positive aspects. And, regardless of last year's results, pre-season coach speak is always "cautiously optimistic". For teams coming off "bad" years the line is "we will be better this year". For teams coming off good years the line is: "We have a chance to be good again this year".

OTOH, cold hearted guys like Steele and bookmakers use numbers, stats and trends to measure "progress". In 2014 he ranked the Cats #73. The "number game" I played in my OP projected only 2 games (OH and Vandy) to be closer than a 8 point margin.

This year he has the Cats pre-season ranked at #53 with 5 games (SC, FL, MO, Vandy and UofL) projected to be closer than 8 points. That certainly looks like progress to me. Maybe not as much as some fans want/expect but clearly progress. JMO.

Peace

 

[Blue Decade]

"Have a feeling Coach Stoops would be none too pleased with what he calls a "significantly improved team" having a 5-7 record"


I wouldn't be nearly as concerned about how Stoops was pleased compared to my concern about how the UK fans would react.

Fortunately I don't think we will have that situation to worry about.

I agree with this, and it brings to mind what we mean when we talk about the meaning of improvement. I don't think anyone questions that our roster is improved. Anyone who follows Kentucky football knows that we will be better and deeper at every position on the field except defensive end and possibly offensive left tackle. Can our coaches put our team in position to win more games? This also comes under the overall set of forward steps needed for improvement.

 

[hmt5000]

You are right...but also wrong. Fans are "closer to the program" and usually gauge progress on what they see as improved returnees, talented newcomers and local media coverage, which, IMO, usually leans toward the positive aspects. And, regardless of last year's results, pre-season coach speak is always "cautiously optimistic". For teams coming off "bad" years the line is "we will be better this year". For teams coming off good years the line is: "We have a chance to be good again this year".

OTOH, cold hearted guys like Steele and bookmakers use numbers, stats and trends to measure "progress". In 2014 he ranked the Cats #73. The "number game" I played in my OP projected only 2 games (OH and Vandy) to be closer than a 8 point margin.

This year he has the Cats pre-season ranked at #53 with 5 games (SC, FL, MO, Vandy and UofL) projected to be closer than 8 points. That certainly looks like progress to me. Maybe not as much as some fans want/expect but clearly progress. JMO.

Peace

all good points. but as you noted above, he has a few pickems for us. so a couple guys playing well or making a play here or there could be the difference in winning and losing those pickems. i'll take returning players improving over teams that lost a ton and assume the backups are gonna be better.