We're 32 days away as I post this, from turning on the lights in the new Commonwealth Stadium, filling the bleachers, and kicking off the season. Here are some things to look forward to!
1. We will see a much more consistent team this year.
Patrick Towles started off playing terrific last season. When the rest of the team fell apart, his performance fell apart. I attribute that to youth on both sides of the ball, and lack of depth. Offensively, Neal Brown made some stupid calls (QB sneak on 4th and 10 maybe?), played a lot of east-west ball, even when it was evident that it didn't work. Sometimes, it was a surprise to see us throw it downfield more than 3 times in a game, and frankly, I just don't think he was on the same page as Coach Stoops.
Enter Shannon Dawson. He came in, and instantly made changes (namely, on the offensive line), moving our guards to a 3 point stance and reinforcing the need to play physical. If that's a mentality that he's had to push onto players as soon as he comes into the program, it tells me that our offensive line wasn't used to their potential. West Virginia had a physical, and often praised offensive line, and we pull in more talent than they do. I'm confident (based on Dawson's own comments) that this offense has all of the pieces that it needs to be incredibly successful. I think a year in college football getting used to the life of a collegiate student-athlete will pay dividends to our on-field production. I also expect to see a star emerge from the receiving corps in the process (I expect Garrett Johnson, but see Dorian Baker with a lot of potential to be a star as well).
Defensively, the staff has been very positive this off-season; as positive as they have been in their time at UK. Last year, linebackers have had issues getting into position on defense, and it would result in teams breaking off big runs. Coach Elliot is adamant that UK has shored up that issue. We also had issues with our CB's making plays. That could also be attributed to being out of proper position (our CB's have the ability to make plays, we've seen the flashes, we just haven't seen it come to fruition entirely). As our CB's go into their senior seasons, I fully expect them to be able to set themselves up to make big plays this season. Last year, they were responsible for only 3 of Kentucky's 16 interceptions. It was an improvement from the year before, but not a good enough improvement. Despite that, Kentucky was one of the best in the SEC (maybe the best?) at preventing explosive plays. The staff is working towards building an opportunistic defense that makes a lot of plays, in the form of a bend-don't-break defense. We've recruiting a lot of long, rangy, fast CB's, and some terrific safeties. Those are pieces that are essential to stopping teams in the red-zone. Being able to quickly react to the run on the perimeter, while having the speed, length, and athleticism to keep the ball away from big receivers. The defense had the bend aspect down (really doing an outstanding job at keeping the ball in front of them in the passing game), but the "don't break" aspect has to be shown this season. Playing in proper position and recruiting the personnel that we've recruited is essential to that.
2. We finally have SEC speed.
A lot of size, a lot of speed. Having a QB that is 6'5, 240#, running a 4.6 forty, and being ultra shifty is a real luxury, especially with the arm that he has. Having a player with the speed, and field vision that Boom Williams has, another luxury. Having the most advanced S&C program in the country in all sports, the biggest luxury of all.
At the SEC media days, Jordan Swindle commented on the improvements in our team's physical well being, stating how two years ago, UK only had 5 players that could run 19 mph, and at that point in time, Kentucky had 33 players that could run that speed. At a later date, Korem was interviewed, and that comment was brought up. Korem mentioned that there were actually 31 players that ran 20 mph!
Math time folks:
1.0 yard per second = ~2.0 mph
40 yards / 5 second = 8 yards/second = ~16 mph
40 yards / 4.4 sec. = 9.1 yards/second = ~18.2 mph
40 yards / 4 seconds = 10 yards/second = ~20 mph
For perspective, when Boom Williams broke out for his first touchdown against Ohio, he was clocked at 21.7 mph, and this is a man that made a lot of very fast, athletic teams look slow in the open field.
Think about that for a moment. Once guys have accelerated to the point that they're running full-speed, there are 31 guys on this team that run 40 yards in nearly 4 seconds flat. Hey, hopefully some play WR, then I bet Coach Dawson will be real happy about throwing the ball downfield!
3. We also have SEC size.
The joy of having a defense where 10 of the 11 starters are upperclassmen? They're so much more physically developed than kids out of high school. For a defense that is mostly revolved around speed, the size is pretty tremendous, especially in the linebacking corps.
Teams like Mizzou (outstanding run defense), will be fielding linebackers that weigh 235, 230, and 230 for their starters.
Georgia will start 3 linebackers weighing 230, 252, and 237.
Alabama will start linebackers weighing 252, 240, 258, and 252 (They also run a 3-4 base package).
Kentucky will start linebackers weighing 255 (Forrest), 252 (Hatcher), 272 (Johnson), and 225 (Flannigan), while having players with good size backing them up.
Not bad size compared to other SEC defenses that typically do a good job of stopping the run. As mentioned previously, it'll all come down to how the staff gets these guys into position. They have the speed and size to stop people, now they just have to be able to get where they need to be. The linebackers did a good job with that against Louisville to end the season, and the staff seems confident coming out of the off-season in that regard. Makes me feel good about the future of Kentucky's run defense.
As for other positions, we're on par with the SEC in every regard. We're not playing with slow, or undersized players anymore. That alone will take us a long way.
4. I'm confident that we will win at least seven games, possibly eight, before bowl season!
If I had to pick out wins right now, I'm going to say:
UL-Lafayette
Florida
Mizzou
Eastern Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Charlotte
Louisville
My reasoning?
Florida lost their entire offensive line to the draft, they're going to run with a new QB, and they lost their star RB. In their 3rd game of the season (and first SEC game, as well as first away game), they're still going to be adjusting to a completely new system, and while they gain a good offensive coach (which should mitigate some of the growth pains of having so many new offensive players), they lose defensive stars, as well as a very good defensive coach. That can't be ignored. I think we win this one.
Mizzou has had a rough off-season to say the least. To quote SDS, "The strength of the program over the last several years has been the pass rush, but the core of Shane Ray, Markus Golden, Harold Brantley (injury) and Marcus Loud (dismissed) is no longer available. Keeping defensive line coach Craig Kuligowski away from Illinois was a major plus following DC Dave Steckel’s exit to Missouri State. Another complication is the lack of proven pass-catchers. Tigers must replace their top four wideouts off last season’s team."
Mizzou has lost a lot. They lost one of their 1000 yard rushers as well, and Maty Mauk has always been an iffy player early in the season. Considering that this is a home game, and so many negative things have happened to Mizzou, I'm going to say that this is a win.
Finally, there's Louisville. I don't really need to explain the other wins not aside from Florida and Mizzou, but I felt that Louisville's football program is at least deserving enough for an explanation of why I believe Kentucky will beat them. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Louisville on both sides of the ball. Nobody has any clue who the QB will be, and you have to question the offensive line defending whoever that QB is. They lose their star receiver (a top 3 receiver in the entire country), a very good RB, and a lot of their defense. 10 players drafted, Louisville's best in their program's history.
Last year's game a PJCS was close, a dropped interception away from winning that game despite how big of a game their star player was having. A lot of Louisville fans like to discount what Kentucky did defensively to Louisville, but how much of the defense from that game does Kentucky return? A ton of it. How much offense from that game does Louisville return? Well, considering that Parker is gone, those 3 touchdowns and 180 yards next season will be missed for them. Eli Rogers will be busy with the Steelers next season, and won't be able to help Louisville out this time around, so his 5 receptions and 61 yards will be missed, although, he didn't score for them, then again, Parker was the only receiver that Louisville had that did score. The RB Dyer, and the TE Gerald Christian are gone as well. The only returning players that caught a football in that game are Quick and De La Cruz.
I guess my point is, Louisville depended on their draft picks for most of the year to come up with big plays, and those draft picks did it again, against Kentucky. Kentucky returns most of its playmakers (aside from Bud and Z), and will be playing with more experience than Louisville. Also, considering that this one is at home, and I'm pretty confident that Kentucky wins this game.
I think this year is the year that we field a good team that competes in every game, but it all starts in 32 days!
1. We will see a much more consistent team this year.
Patrick Towles started off playing terrific last season. When the rest of the team fell apart, his performance fell apart. I attribute that to youth on both sides of the ball, and lack of depth. Offensively, Neal Brown made some stupid calls (QB sneak on 4th and 10 maybe?), played a lot of east-west ball, even when it was evident that it didn't work. Sometimes, it was a surprise to see us throw it downfield more than 3 times in a game, and frankly, I just don't think he was on the same page as Coach Stoops.
Enter Shannon Dawson. He came in, and instantly made changes (namely, on the offensive line), moving our guards to a 3 point stance and reinforcing the need to play physical. If that's a mentality that he's had to push onto players as soon as he comes into the program, it tells me that our offensive line wasn't used to their potential. West Virginia had a physical, and often praised offensive line, and we pull in more talent than they do. I'm confident (based on Dawson's own comments) that this offense has all of the pieces that it needs to be incredibly successful. I think a year in college football getting used to the life of a collegiate student-athlete will pay dividends to our on-field production. I also expect to see a star emerge from the receiving corps in the process (I expect Garrett Johnson, but see Dorian Baker with a lot of potential to be a star as well).
Defensively, the staff has been very positive this off-season; as positive as they have been in their time at UK. Last year, linebackers have had issues getting into position on defense, and it would result in teams breaking off big runs. Coach Elliot is adamant that UK has shored up that issue. We also had issues with our CB's making plays. That could also be attributed to being out of proper position (our CB's have the ability to make plays, we've seen the flashes, we just haven't seen it come to fruition entirely). As our CB's go into their senior seasons, I fully expect them to be able to set themselves up to make big plays this season. Last year, they were responsible for only 3 of Kentucky's 16 interceptions. It was an improvement from the year before, but not a good enough improvement. Despite that, Kentucky was one of the best in the SEC (maybe the best?) at preventing explosive plays. The staff is working towards building an opportunistic defense that makes a lot of plays, in the form of a bend-don't-break defense. We've recruiting a lot of long, rangy, fast CB's, and some terrific safeties. Those are pieces that are essential to stopping teams in the red-zone. Being able to quickly react to the run on the perimeter, while having the speed, length, and athleticism to keep the ball away from big receivers. The defense had the bend aspect down (really doing an outstanding job at keeping the ball in front of them in the passing game), but the "don't break" aspect has to be shown this season. Playing in proper position and recruiting the personnel that we've recruited is essential to that.
2. We finally have SEC speed.
A lot of size, a lot of speed. Having a QB that is 6'5, 240#, running a 4.6 forty, and being ultra shifty is a real luxury, especially with the arm that he has. Having a player with the speed, and field vision that Boom Williams has, another luxury. Having the most advanced S&C program in the country in all sports, the biggest luxury of all.
At the SEC media days, Jordan Swindle commented on the improvements in our team's physical well being, stating how two years ago, UK only had 5 players that could run 19 mph, and at that point in time, Kentucky had 33 players that could run that speed. At a later date, Korem was interviewed, and that comment was brought up. Korem mentioned that there were actually 31 players that ran 20 mph!
Math time folks:
1.0 yard per second = ~2.0 mph
40 yards / 5 second = 8 yards/second = ~16 mph
40 yards / 4.4 sec. = 9.1 yards/second = ~18.2 mph
40 yards / 4 seconds = 10 yards/second = ~20 mph
For perspective, when Boom Williams broke out for his first touchdown against Ohio, he was clocked at 21.7 mph, and this is a man that made a lot of very fast, athletic teams look slow in the open field.
Think about that for a moment. Once guys have accelerated to the point that they're running full-speed, there are 31 guys on this team that run 40 yards in nearly 4 seconds flat. Hey, hopefully some play WR, then I bet Coach Dawson will be real happy about throwing the ball downfield!
3. We also have SEC size.
The joy of having a defense where 10 of the 11 starters are upperclassmen? They're so much more physically developed than kids out of high school. For a defense that is mostly revolved around speed, the size is pretty tremendous, especially in the linebacking corps.
Teams like Mizzou (outstanding run defense), will be fielding linebackers that weigh 235, 230, and 230 for their starters.
Georgia will start 3 linebackers weighing 230, 252, and 237.
Alabama will start linebackers weighing 252, 240, 258, and 252 (They also run a 3-4 base package).
Kentucky will start linebackers weighing 255 (Forrest), 252 (Hatcher), 272 (Johnson), and 225 (Flannigan), while having players with good size backing them up.
Not bad size compared to other SEC defenses that typically do a good job of stopping the run. As mentioned previously, it'll all come down to how the staff gets these guys into position. They have the speed and size to stop people, now they just have to be able to get where they need to be. The linebackers did a good job with that against Louisville to end the season, and the staff seems confident coming out of the off-season in that regard. Makes me feel good about the future of Kentucky's run defense.
As for other positions, we're on par with the SEC in every regard. We're not playing with slow, or undersized players anymore. That alone will take us a long way.
4. I'm confident that we will win at least seven games, possibly eight, before bowl season!
If I had to pick out wins right now, I'm going to say:
UL-Lafayette
Florida
Mizzou
Eastern Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Charlotte
Louisville
My reasoning?
Florida lost their entire offensive line to the draft, they're going to run with a new QB, and they lost their star RB. In their 3rd game of the season (and first SEC game, as well as first away game), they're still going to be adjusting to a completely new system, and while they gain a good offensive coach (which should mitigate some of the growth pains of having so many new offensive players), they lose defensive stars, as well as a very good defensive coach. That can't be ignored. I think we win this one.
Mizzou has had a rough off-season to say the least. To quote SDS, "The strength of the program over the last several years has been the pass rush, but the core of Shane Ray, Markus Golden, Harold Brantley (injury) and Marcus Loud (dismissed) is no longer available. Keeping defensive line coach Craig Kuligowski away from Illinois was a major plus following DC Dave Steckel’s exit to Missouri State. Another complication is the lack of proven pass-catchers. Tigers must replace their top four wideouts off last season’s team."
Mizzou has lost a lot. They lost one of their 1000 yard rushers as well, and Maty Mauk has always been an iffy player early in the season. Considering that this is a home game, and so many negative things have happened to Mizzou, I'm going to say that this is a win.
Finally, there's Louisville. I don't really need to explain the other wins not aside from Florida and Mizzou, but I felt that Louisville's football program is at least deserving enough for an explanation of why I believe Kentucky will beat them. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Louisville on both sides of the ball. Nobody has any clue who the QB will be, and you have to question the offensive line defending whoever that QB is. They lose their star receiver (a top 3 receiver in the entire country), a very good RB, and a lot of their defense. 10 players drafted, Louisville's best in their program's history.
Last year's game a PJCS was close, a dropped interception away from winning that game despite how big of a game their star player was having. A lot of Louisville fans like to discount what Kentucky did defensively to Louisville, but how much of the defense from that game does Kentucky return? A ton of it. How much offense from that game does Louisville return? Well, considering that Parker is gone, those 3 touchdowns and 180 yards next season will be missed for them. Eli Rogers will be busy with the Steelers next season, and won't be able to help Louisville out this time around, so his 5 receptions and 61 yards will be missed, although, he didn't score for them, then again, Parker was the only receiver that Louisville had that did score. The RB Dyer, and the TE Gerald Christian are gone as well. The only returning players that caught a football in that game are Quick and De La Cruz.
I guess my point is, Louisville depended on their draft picks for most of the year to come up with big plays, and those draft picks did it again, against Kentucky. Kentucky returns most of its playmakers (aside from Bud and Z), and will be playing with more experience than Louisville. Also, considering that this one is at home, and I'm pretty confident that Kentucky wins this game.
I think this year is the year that we field a good team that competes in every game, but it all starts in 32 days!
![[laughing]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/laugh.r191677.gif "Laughing [laughing]")
