Fool's Gold

[BlueBarry]

Ok. Hear me out. Long time Cat fan on former long time football ticket holder (moved away from state). I have been and remain very excited by the progress Stoops seems to be making with recruiting. As a matter of fact, it has been a long time since my excitement for football recruiting was level with the same for basketball. The guy is flat out recruiting Ohio like no Cat coach I can remember. I see our rankings being higher consistently than I can recall. All sounds good and the future sounds bright. Right? Then, I make the mistake of looking at our ranking against other SEC teams. Crap! Still hovering near the bottom. What is it going to take? Will we ever rise from the cellar? Somebody save me. Tell me why we should be convinced that better days are in fact ahead. I don't want to just win all our non-conference games. I don't want to just compete in the SEC. I want to be part of the race, in the conversation, relevant. Can we do this?

 

[jnewc2]

College football is about a whole lot more than recruiting, that's one. (Don't get me wrong, recruiting is HUGE and there's a BIG correlation between teams that recruit well and wins on the field, but that correlation isn't 100%). As long as we're recruiting at the top-25 level, and developing those players the RIGHT way, we can compete with and beat anyone in the nation. What we DON'T want is to have classes ranked around 50th--the difference between a class ranked 15th and a class ranked 25th or 30th is relatively small--especially if you have a coaching staff that's recruiting certain players for a certain system and developing those players well--recruiting is only 50% of the equation..a great coaching staff that can develop players, game-plan, motivate & coach is the other half..the difference between a class ranked 30th and a class ranked 50th is pretty significant..that being said, even though our recruiting is really, really solid right now, I'm not just completely satisfied--I want it to keep getting better and I want it to keep getting better and better as more and more wins come (and I'm confident it will)

Here's the big thing: the next step we're going to take is to ACTUALLY win some games..we need to get up to that 8 or 9-win level (and we will) and THEN we can start bringing in those recruiting classes ranked in the top-15..for the time being, we're doing a heck of a job to be bringing in classes as good as we are with the small # of games we've won recently, but the next step will be winning 8+ games (which isn't nearly as far away as many of you believe considering that we were INCHES away from 6 or 7 wins last year and were in BATTLES with some of the best teams in the nation) right now our problem on the field is consistency and depth, and I'm confident (by looking at what this coaching staff has done in developing players thus far) that both of those things will improve SIGNIFICANTLY this season..this staff isn't one to sugar-coat things, and if you've listened to them talk this off-season you can sense the confidence and the ease with which they feel that this team is not only improved, but SIGNIFICANTLY improved, and depth and consistency are SIGNIFICANTLY improved..I think many forget just how close we were last season..sure there were a couple of bad showing late in the season, and I was really disappointed in those, but at the same time they just felt almost like a fluke more than anything and really just felt like a growing pain that young teams go through when learning to be consistent

You could see flashes of what this team is capable of in big games against Florida and S. Car, and Miss. State and Louisville and even Mizzou..I'm telling you..we're not as far off as many believe..we were really, really close last year and when Stoops tells me that this team is going to be SIGNIFICANTLY improved this year, that makes me feel really good about this season..for the most part we didn't lose last year because of coaching or talent..it was because of consistency and depth (which are a whole lot easier to fix than coaching or talent)...that's what really gives me hope about this season and the future in general..our weak points are things that can be fixed..we have a really solid foundation at this point..we have really good players at key positions and a quality coaching staff that can hold their own with anyone..we saw flashes last year, and I feel like it's going to be put together this season

After we actually win (which I expect Stoops to do in the VERY near future) we can then take that next step up the ladder..the reason myself and so many others are excited is because even when we're not landing a 4-star kid, many times the 3-star kids we are landing have offer sheets full of top-25 tradition-rich teams..I'm not naive enough to think that recruiting rankings don't matter, but I also know that rankings are far from a 100% accurate prediction of what kind of COLLEGE player a guy will be ..but at the same time recruiting rankings do pan out more often that not, and they just do a lot for the optics of your program if nothing else..it looks and sounds good to say you're brining in a top-25 or top-15 class, etc..so I understand that and I understand that more often than not a 4-star guy is going to be better than a 3-star, but as I said, once the wins start coming this year and next year those recruits are going to continue to get better and better and the expecatations will continue to rise (which is VERY important) and you'll see this program make a rise similar to what we've seen teams like Miss. St., S. Carolina, and Ole Miss make

Just based on the improvement I saw between years one and two here at UK, I think this coaching staff is doing a quality job at developing players and doing a good job on the recruiting trail..now that being said, we're nowhere near where I want us to be at or where I expect us to be at in the next year or two, but I see us heading in that direction (very quickly)..I know it sounds silly, but I just have a gut feeling that this staff is going to get Kentucky football over that hump..and I have a gut feeling that it's going to happen A LOT sooner than many think..I trust my eyes and my instincts, and with what I saw last year, and seeing just how close we were last year and how competitive we were (in key moments & key games) last year I fully believe that we're a WHOLE lot closer than our record indicated a season ago

You can save this and bring it back and remind me if I'm wrong, but I fully believe this Kentucky team is going to be the surprise of the SEC this year. It sounds silly, but I just have a gut feeling, and I feel a real swell of momentum around this program (and you can't discount that). I trust my instincts and gut feelings, and I feel like I'm right a lot more than not. I don't know about putting a win value on that (even though I think we'll win 7 games with a whole lot of toss-ups & close games against really good team mixed in) but I think the general takeaway when this season is over is going to be, "Wow, that team is a whole lot better than I thought they'd be, and they're a whole lot closer to the upper-echelon of the SEC than I thought. They just look and feel like a legitimate SEC football team, and they're going to be a team to be reckoned with in the SEC as long as Stoops is here."

 

[AndyPopCat]

Barry, I think step one for you is to readjjust your time expectations of what it takes to build a ground up program in the SEC.

As for the staff...they have excelled in almost all facets of guiding this program since day 1 of the Stoops era. The next step for them is proving they can "on the field" coach as well. If they show us that in the next two seasos....we're sitting on something big here.

 

[TBCat]

Ok. Hear me out. Long time Cat fan on former long time football ticket holder (moved away from state). I have been and remain very excited by the progress Stoops seems to be making with recruiting. As a matter of fact, it has been a long time since my excitement for football recruiting was level with the same for basketball. The guy is flat out recruiting Ohio like no Cat coach I can remember. I see our rankings being higher consistently than I can recall. All sounds good and the future sounds bright. Right? Then, I make the mistake of looking at our ranking against other SEC teams. Crap! Still hovering near the bottom. What is it going to take? Will we ever rise from the cellar? Somebody save me. Tell me why we should be convinced that better days are in fact ahead. I don't want to just win all our non-conference games. I don't want to just compete in the SEC. I want to be part of the race, in the conversation, relevant. Can we do this?

Because Missouri's ranking is the same as ours and they have won the SEC east 2 years in a row. People badly misjudge recruiting rankings especially in football. A majority of those rankings is influenced by athletes that either will never play for their respective schools or won't play a whole lot. Most games are dramatically influenced by their best 2 or 3 players. You rely on team's top couple players. You can get away with the other guys just being solid.

 

[BoulderCat]

Nothing there to disagree with except as noted my expectations on the timeline are more modest. 6 will do it this year. That said as I've posted here already, and because of many things you note, I believe our Cat's are capable of winning 10 of the 12 games this year. I don't predict nor expect that will happen, but it's a big step forward nonetheless. Wins are always the bottom line, and today expected quickly but again 6 will do, and 7-8 will result in even more confidence they will come in the years to follow. When a man picks up a program in the state Mark Stoops did baby steps are all I can expect, but 8 would be a giant stride indicative of a program that truly has substantial legs under it. Let's hope!

 

[UKWinsAgainYep]

good post OP. The talent gap is being closed, but yes, we are still behind most of the SEC. It really will come down to coaching. Can Coach Stoops and staff coach these guys up? We will see....

Saying that, our recruiting rankings are getting higher than usual so that should mean we have a better product on the field. I think that is happening.

 

[DaBossIsBack]

A lot of good points. I'll add identity as a key ingredient as well. You have to know who you are and what you're about. I feel like we will see that in all 3 phases this year. This also extends throughout the program; on the field, off the field, in the weight room and in the class room.

 

[stenchymouse]

If we're in the same ballpark with other SEC teams in terms of talent (before Stoops, we were a mid level MAC team in terms of talent) then other variables come into play...

Develop players
Limit attrition
Continuity in the staff
Balance within the roster
Great offensive and defensive systems

If we don't have a glaring talent deficit then things like turnover margin, home field advantage and winning attitude come into play as well.

We now have the talent to consistently win 6-7 games a year going forward and with some breaks we could win 8-9 games.

 

[BlueRaider22]

1st - Watch any race.....horses, NASCAR, etc. You can come in 12th and be 45 seconds behind the leader or you can come in 12th but be 5 seconds behind the leader. One car will hardly ever be competitive, but the other will have a shot of winning every time the race starts.

2nd - Stoops is recruiting this well........with a 7-17 record! What is it going to be like if/when he starts to churn out winning seasons?

3rd - It's also what positions the talent is being recruited. Many see Towles as a rising superstar.....and already one of the better SEC QB prospects. A great QB can make up for a lot.


Yes, it is possible that Stoops isn't a very good coach and that we won't be uber-competitive going forward. We'll just have to see......but if you take a step back from the ledge and analyze the current situation it's not as dire as you make it out to be.

 

[Deeeefense]

When I opened this thread I thought it would be about Hal Dumme and wondering why his name would be popping up again.

All I can say is if you can't look at the quality of players that we are bringing in, and realize that they are not only light years better than any players we have had in the last three decades, and that they are on par with most of our SEC brethren, then you aren't paying attention to anything beyond a number on a website.

 

[CatDaddy4daWin]

good thread and give you an appreciation of how far we have already come. When you're classes are in the 50s and 60s, there's really not much hope of being a factor in the SEC. I remember looking at the schedule in the past and counting off 5 or 6 games that were 'no way we can win' games. This year, I see 2.

And good point on last year jnew, it really came down to execution and depth. We could see the talent out there, but they had not yet gotten great at making the easy plays. Those dropped passes on first down that turn a 2nd and 5 into 2nd and 10. That missed block that turns a 20 yard gain into a 2 yard loss. In year 3, I expect us to start making those easy plays, the routine plays. Making the block, following your oline, being where the QB is going to throw the ball, catching the ball, all those little things that turn close losses into wins.

We're as close as we've been in a long time in terms of talent on the field now just gotta go out and make plays. And I can just imagine how good our recruiting is going to be when we get back to bowl games and win 7, 8, 9 games. That's when the real fun begins and we go from getting 20-30 ranked classes to 10-15 ranked classes.

 

[JustthefaxMa'am]

 

[Kooky Kats]

Overall, I think the SEC is even more elite than it was 20 years ago.

Teams like:

PSU
ND
MICH
TEX
MIAMI
NEBRASKA

we're well above the USCe/Ole Miss level of recruiting... Now? Nope.

 

[JHB4UK]

the stud 4 stars we are reeling in on the O line won't be 5th year seniors until 2020 Barry! have a little patience, enjoy the process of building a winning SEC program!

 

[UKWinsAgainYep]

When I opened this thread I thought it would be about Hal Dumme and wondering why his name would be popping up again.

All I can say is if you can't look at the quality of players that we are bringing in, and realize that they are not only light years better than any players we have had in the last three decades, and that they are on par with most of our SEC brethren, then you aren't paying attention to anything beyond a number on a website.

I hate to break it to you, but recruiting rankings correlate pretty strongly with football program success overall. Please don't point out the occasional Mizzou or Boise St. That is not the norm.

We are still next to last in the SEC as far as recruiting...The OP makes a valid point. It's not a crazy observation.

 

[BlueRaider22]

^Kooky.

Everything rides in waves. There is a natural ebb/flow to team performance/recruiting, conference performance/recruiting, etc.

-20 yrs ago Michigan was playing for national titles.....then they hit a valley.....now they are looking at an upslide.
-Bama had a rough time period before rebounding
-FSU had a rough period before rebounding
-The BigTEN is just now emerging from a slump. They used to fight for conference supremacy, but went into a lull.......now they just won a NC and the conference as a whole is starting to pick back up.
-Tennessee......blah, blah, blah, etc, etc, etc.

Things just have peaks/valleys.



One thing I'm wondering is about the SEC specifically. Just a thought, but it could easily cannibalize itself. Teams like Ole Miss, MSU, USC, UK (who are usually the bottom of the SEC barrel) have risen or are rising up. So, instead of having just a handful of teams leading the pack, you now have 10-12 of the 14 teams who can beat anyone at any time.

The SEC hasn't had a valley in a while and they are about due.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Overall, I think the SEC is even more elite than it was 20 years ago.

Teams like:

PSU
ND
MICH
TEX
MIAMI
NEBRASKA

we're well above the USCe/Ole Miss level of recruiting... Now? Nope.

I feel the other way, I think the SEC was down a good bit last year, the bowl results tend to agree with that too. Overall SEC had some pretty bad qb play last year conference wide. Who knows if it will be better this year. UF, USC, UGA don't know who their qb is yet, I don't think Vandy does either and that is just in the East. A&M has an idea, LSU returns a starter but is hoping someone beats him out, Bama isn't sure. AU, State and Arkansas all know for sure. SEC network guys think the SEC champ could have 2 losses this year.

As for the recruiting goes, OM is killing it, they are top 5 now with a decent chance of staying there and will be a top 10 because not enough teams can catch them to knock them out. South Carolina has never been a consistent top 10, mostly top 20 classes, but have had some tremendous headliners in those classes who ended up being what people thought they were in college with Lattimore and Clowney. Of course some kids can change their minds and that will effect their rankings, Bama will likely lose a couple of their lower ranked kids as time goes on and so could some of the others, even OM could have some change their mind, bur Freeze and the Kiffin can recruit with the best of them. Kiffin is also one of those guys who had a show cause penalties hanging over his head for awhile.

 

[TBCat]

I hate to break it to you, but recruiting rankings correlate pretty strongly with football program success overall. Please don't point out the occasional Mizzou or Boise St. That is not the norm.

We are still next to last in the SEC as far as recruiting...The OP makes a valid point. It's not a crazy observation.

There isn't as much of a correlation as you might think. There will of course always be a correlation simply because the teams that win will usually recruit well. However it is not a direct correlation that being 15th in recruiting means you will out perform the team ranked 40th in recruiting.
Football recruiting ranking is based on bulk talent. Over signing with 30 athletes will generally rank you higher than a team that only signs 20 or so. Does that mean that you got better players? Not really it just boosts your overall average.

Also I have always felt there is a giant leap from the top 50 players in the class and everyone else. There is a huge difference between a player ranked 5th overall in the class and player ranked 100th overall. However there isn't that much of a difference between a player ranked 100th and a player ranked 300th. The top 50 players are special talents. Really gifted athletes. After that list of really special talents you get a lot of guys that are simply ahead of their peers at that point in time. It is possible to develop talent to pass by a player ranked 200th in the class. Just saying there is a big difference in rankings with the really high end players but there isn't so much of one comparing a DE ranked 300th in the class to one ranked 200th.

That generally means the Alabama's and OSU's that get those top 50 players regularly do tend to end up at the top of the AP poll. The recruiting rankings do tend to track the best teams at the top of the list. Once you get below a certain point the correlation dies off. The recruiting rankings from about 20th on don't seem to track at all. This matters to us because this is the territory we are looking to move into. We do recruit well enough to do what Missouri, Boise, Arizona and some others have done.


Rank Top 25 Recruiting last 5 years
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 Ohio State Alabama
2 TCU Ohio State
3 Alabama Florida State
4 Baylor LSU
5 Oregon USC
6 Michigan State Georgia
7 Auburn Florida
8 Florida State Auburn
9 Georgia Texas AM
10 USC Texas
11 Notre Dame Notre Dame
12 Clemson UCLA
13 LSU Tennessee
14 UCLA Clemson
15 Ole Miss Oklahoma
16 Arizona State Miami
17 Georgia Tech Michigan
18 Wisconsin Oregon
19 Oklahoma South Carolina
20 Arkansas Ole Miss
21 Stanford Stanford
22 Arizona Virgina Tech
23 Missouri Miss State
24 Boise State Arkansas
25 Tennessee Washington

 

[Chuckinden]

The bottom line is that we are still far behind, but catching up.

 

[CATFANFOLIFE87]

I hate to break it to you, but recruiting rankings correlate pretty strongly with football program success overall. Please don't point out the occasional Mizzou or Boise St. That is not the norm.

We are still next to last in the SEC as far as recruiting...The OP makes a valid point. It's not a crazy observation.

There are more than two teams in the country that perform above their recruiting ranking (Oregon, TCU, Boise St., Miss St, Mizzou, Michigan St) just as there are others that perform below their ranking (Texas, ND, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida). When you have top 25 talent there isn't a team in the country you can't beat. There is absolutely no reason why UK can't have the same success Spurrier has at USCjr winning 8-9 games a year and challenge for a spot in Atlanta with our recruiting what it currently is. You also have to factor in that we're redshirting almost our entire class and Stoops has had very little attrition since coming here. The top teams in the SEC stay young because they lose so many 2nd/3rd year players to the NFL every year. When we are lining our top 25 classes of 4th/5th year players against the top of the conference you'll be surprised how well we stack up. I have a feeling that when we get to that point our recruiting will improve and raise the ceiling for us even more

 

[C1180]

Thereis a big difference in being 13th or 14th in the SECand being only a few spot behind lot of the SEC teams and being 30 or 40 spots behind like in the Joker days at UK. Heck you can be in the top twenty five in recruiting overall and still be 13th or 14 in the SEC

 

[jnewc2]

There isn't as much of a correlation as you might think. There will of course always be a correlation simply because the teams that win will usually recruit well. However it is not a direct correlation that being 15th in recruiting means you will out perform the team ranked 40th in recruiting.
Football recruiting ranking is based on bulk talent. Over signing with 30 athletes will generally rank you higher than a team that only signs 20 or so. Does that mean that you got better players? Not really it just boosts your overall average.

Also I have always felt there is a giant leap from the top 50 players in the class and everyone else. There is a huge difference between a player ranked 5th overall in the class and player ranked 100th overall. However there isn't that much of a difference between a player ranked 100th and a player ranked 300th. The top 50 players are special talents. Really gifted athletes. After that list of really special talents you get a lot of guys that are simply ahead of their peers at that point in time. It is possible to develop talent to pass by a player ranked 200th in the class. Just saying there is a big difference in rankings with the really high end players but there isn't so much of one comparing a DE ranked 300th in the class to one ranked 200th.

That generally means the Alabama's and OSU's that get those top 50 players regularly do tend to end up at the top of the AP poll. The recruiting rankings do tend to track the best teams at the top of the list. Once you get below a certain point the correlation dies off. The recruiting rankings from about 20th on don't seem to track at all. This matters to us because this is the territory we are looking to move into. We do recruit well enough to do what Missouri, Boise, Arizona and some others have done.


Rank Top 25 Recruiting last 5 years
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 Ohio State Alabama
2 TCU Ohio State
3 Alabama Florida State
4 Baylor LSU
5 Oregon USC
6 Michigan State Georgia
7 Auburn Florida
8 Florida State Auburn
9 Georgia Texas AM
10 USC Texas
11 Notre Dame Notre Dame
12 Clemson UCLA
13 LSU Tennessee
14 UCLA Clemson
15 Ole Miss Oklahoma
16 Arizona State Miami
17 Georgia Tech Michigan
18 Wisconsin Oregon
19 Oklahoma South Carolina
20 Arkansas Ole Miss
21 Stanford Stanford
22 Arizona Virgina Tech
23 Missouri Miss State
24 Boise State Arkansas
25 Tennessee Washington

That's the point I was trying to make to a degree..once you hit that number around 25 or 30 or so, the correlation starts to get lower and lower, but the key is just getting one of those top-25 classes (which we've basically been doing since Stoops' arrival)

Classes ranked between 10-25 are different, but there isn't that huge talent gap, but there's a huge difference between a class ranked 25th and 50th or so..now that being said we still need to improve our recruiting, because the rankings do pan out more often than not, but we just need wins to get to that next tier of recruiting success (and I'm confident they'll come)

 

[jnewc2]

Thereis a big difference in being 13th or 14th in the SECand being only a few spot behind lot of the SEC teams and being 30 or 40 spots behind like in the Joker days at UK. Heck you can be in the top twenty five in recruiting overall and still be 13th or 14 in the SEC

Exactly..it sounds bad to say you're still in the "bottom quarter of the league" in recruiting like I've heard some people say..but the fact is that as weird as it sounds, there's a HUGE difference between a team ranked 11th or 12th in the SEC in recruiting and a team ranked 14th..Vandy's class could be ranked 50th, but the team ranked 12th or 13th will most likely have a class ranked in the top-25

The team ranked 13th in the SEC in recruiting will most likely have a class ranked around 25 spots higher than the 14th-ranked team (Vandy)..you can compete with anyone in the nation if you're bringing in a class ranked in the top-25

 

[Deeeefense]

There isn't as much of a correlation as you might think. There will of course always be a correlation simply because the teams that win will usually recruit well. However it is not a direct correlation that being 15th in recruiting means you will out perform the team ranked 40th in recruiting.
Football recruiting ranking is based on bulk talent. Over signing with 30 athletes will generally rank you higher than a team that only signs 20 or so. Does that mean that you got better players? Not really it just boosts your overall average.

Also I have always felt there is a giant leap from the top 50 players in the class and everyone else. There is a huge difference between a player ranked 5th overall in the class and player ranked 100th overall. However there isn't that much of a difference between a player ranked 100th and a player ranked 300th. The top 50 players are special talents. Really gifted athletes. After that list of really special talents you get a lot of guys that are simply ahead of their peers at that point in time. It is possible to develop talent to pass by a player ranked 200th in the class. Just saying there is a big difference in rankings with the really high end players but there isn't so much of one comparing a DE ranked 300th in the class to one ranked 200th.

That generally means the Alabama's and OSU's that get those top 50 players regularly do tend to end up at the top of the AP poll. The recruiting rankings do tend to track the best teams at the top of the list. Once you get below a certain point the correlation dies off. The recruiting rankings from about 20th on don't seem to track at all. This matters to us because this is the territory we are looking to move into. We do recruit well enough to do what Missouri, Boise, Arizona and some others have done.


Rank Top 25 Recruiting last 5 years
---------------------------------------------------------------
1 Ohio State Alabama
2 TCU Ohio State
3 Alabama Florida State
4 Baylor LSU
5 Oregon USC
6 Michigan State Georgia
7 Auburn Florida
8 Florida State Auburn
9 Georgia Texas AM
10 USC Texas
11 Notre Dame Notre Dame
12 Clemson UCLA
13 LSU Tennessee
14 UCLA Clemson
15 Ole Miss Oklahoma
16 Arizona State Miami
17 Georgia Tech Michigan
18 Wisconsin Oregon
19 Oklahoma South Carolina
20 Arkansas Ole Miss
21 Stanford Stanford
22 Arizona Virgina Tech
23 Missouri Miss State
24 Boise State Arkansas
25 Tennessee Washington

Excellent points and one more that I would add that no one ever seems to pay much attention to in threads like this is retention. There is a reason a team like Missouri with top 30 classes performs more consistently then a USCe with top 15 classes. Missouri retains and develops their players whereas USCe recycles much of theirs. Go back and look at their attrition over the last 4 years - they have lost over 1/3 of their classes. People don't think that matters but teams that can retain their talent like Kentucky is doing, are building an advantage over their future opponents. To not look at retention means you think there is no significant difference between a true sophomore and a RS junior of similar rankings. Phil Steele has evaluated this year's Wildcats as the 2nd most experienced team in the SEC. There is a reason for that, it's not an accident.

 

[BlueBarry]

Very good discussion here. Allot of good and valid points. I certainly am not known for being patient and in deed we are in a microwave. Let's get this season started already and see how it plays out. Go Cats.

 

[BlueRaider22]

Another overlooked attribute to recruiting is Consistency.....and Year.

(the following rankings are made up and to illustrate consistency and year of recruiting)

Let's suppose the following class rankings:

Arkansas - In 2015 they ranked (25th), 2014 (45th), 2013 (17th), 2012 (47th)
UK - 2015 (30th), 2014 (30th), 2013 (30th), 2012 (30th)
Ole Miss - 2015 (24th), 2014 (37th), 2013 (15th), 2012 (51st)
MSU - 2015 (5th), 2014 (33rd), 2013 (53rd), 2012 (62nd)

Consistency - Compare UK and Ole Miss. Even though Ole Miss has 2 classes that rank fairly well ahead of UK, their classes in general are all over the rankings. UK's team is more likely to be better overall.

Year - Compare UK and MSU. MSU just landed a monster top 5 class. They far out-recruited UK and should be the better team by far, right? Nope. Those studs in the 2015 class are freshmen this coming yr. UK's team is likely to be better overall.

 

[Stonewall12]

Gotta win more than 5 games.

 

[HedleyLamarr]

There are lots of kids that peak in high school, and have high rankings that disappoint. There are many other kids that get better. The super bowl is full of three star NFL stars. The great coaches recruit well, but more importantly, coach them up.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Excellent points and one more that I would add that no one ever seems to pay much attention to in threads like this is retention. There is a reason a team like Missouri with top 30 classes performs more consistently then a USCe with top 15 classes. Missouri retains and develops their players whereas USCe recycles much of theirs. Go back and look at their attrition over the last 4 years - they have lost over 1/3 of their classes. People don't think that matters but teams that can retain their talent like Kentucky is doing, are building an advantage over their future opponents. To not look at retention means you think there is no significant difference between a true sophomore and a RS junior of similar rankings. Phil Steele has evaluated this year's Wildcats as the 2nd most experienced team in the SEC. There is a reason for that, it's not an accident.

I am not sold on the retention. Out of any single class you will have 7-11 starters, and another 5=6 who are in the 2 deep, excluding specialist. Which means if you retain 4 entire classes, you are going to have roughly 35 players who don't contribute much other than special teams. If you aren't recruiting over the 7-8 who just aren't getting it done for whatever reason with each class then you are in a pretty steep decline. Its what Bama has been doing, its what UT is trying to do, and its hard to argue with the success that Bama has had. You have to retain those 12-16 players who will see the field regularly, most schools give those last kids a chance to stay in the program

 

[UKWildcats#8]

Ok. Hear me out. Long time Cat fan on former long time football ticket holder (moved away from state). I have been and remain very excited by the progress Stoops seems to be making with recruiting. As a matter of fact, it has been a long time since my excitement for football recruiting was level with the same for basketball. The guy is flat out recruiting Ohio like no Cat coach I can remember. I see our rankings being higher consistently than I can recall. All sounds good and the future sounds bright. Right? Then, I make the mistake of looking at our ranking against other SEC teams. Crap! Still hovering near the bottom. What is it going to take? Will we ever rise from the cellar? Somebody save me. Tell me why we should be convinced that better days are in fact ahead. I don't want to just win all our non-conference games. I don't want to just compete in the SEC. I want to be part of the race, in the conversation, relevant. Can we do this?

That remains to be seen. I think UK will compete in the SEC in the coming years. Being part of the race to win the East most years? That is a whole 'nother level. Stoops is going to have to coach up his guys and show he can outcoach guys with better talent in this conference week in and week out to win a division title. UGA, FL and UT are the 3 in the east you really have to out-coach as they will always have more talent. SC, Missouri and Vandy...more of a level playing field recruiting wise, although SC under Spurrier has been a lot better overall. Once he goes look for them to dip down some. I said in another thread I think he can win 6-9 games regularly, and maybe a rare run at more if the stars align. This is the SEC...other schools are not going to just watch UK get better. They will get better as well. It is going to be a fun next few years for UK fans though, that is for sure.

 

[ram1955]

A lot depends on what your view of success is. When USC joined the conference, we fared well against them. Spurrier has been the difference for them, but he won't be there forever. We are 21-21 with Miss St (all-time) but they've had our number the last 5 or 6 years. Missouri has a better than .500 record (all-time) but most of their success was in th big 12 which never could compare with the SEC. For me, success would be getting to the point we can beat these 3 teams 60% of the times we play them.
We need to beat Vandy regularly and get up to beating ul regularly. If we can do those things, I'll consider Stoops a major success.
The chances of us ever being consistently at or near the top of the conference are no better than someone like Bama, USC, UGA thinking they'll ever get to the point they can compete in bball vs Ky on a regular basis.
Ain't gonna happen.

Give me bowl eligibility every year and a NYD bowl at least every 5 years and I'll be happy.

 

[TBCat]

Excellent points and one more that I would add that no one ever seems to pay much attention to in threads like this is retention. There is a reason a team like Missouri with top 30 classes performs more consistently then a USCe with top 15 classes. Missouri retains and develops their players whereas USCe recycles much of theirs. Go back and look at their attrition over the last 4 years - they have lost over 1/3 of their classes. People don't think that matters but teams that can retain their talent like Kentucky is doing, are building an advantage over their future opponents. To not look at retention means you think there is no significant difference between a true sophomore and a RS junior of similar rankings. Phil Steele has evaluated this year's Wildcats as the 2nd most experienced team in the SEC. There is a reason for that, it's not an accident.

I totally forgot about retention which is probably even more important.

 

[gamalielkid]

I totally forgot about retention which is probably even more important.

Recruiting solid teams that meets a teams needs in year in and year out, redshirting 85% plus of your classes and having teams full of 4th year Juniors and 5th year seniors will pay off in spades. Coach Stoops is following this plan perfectly. Nearly every successful coach has built his program with this kind of model - Coach Stoops is the first one to do this in my lifetime - and I'm 65 years old. Others tried - but they were never able to get over the hump. Coach Stoops has the support of the administration and the FANS! He will be given 5 years and no matter what happens with recruiting now - we will have a great team in 5 years!

Coach Stoops should be here for 20 years and by that time I fully expect him to have at least 150 wins. This program is on the rise and we will be contenders for the Eastern Division every year pretty much from now on. This year will be the hardest of the next 5 years - but I fully believe we are going to be a factor from now on.

Go Big Blue!

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

A lot depends on what your view of success is. When USC joined the conference, we fared well against them. Spurrier has been the difference for them, but he won't be there forever. We are 21-21 with Miss St (all-time) but they've had our number the last 5 or 6 years. Missouri has a better than .500 record (all-time) but most of their success was in th big 12 which never could compare with the SEC. For me, success would be getting to the point we can beat these 3 teams 60% of the times we play them.
We need to beat Vandy regularly and get up to beating ul regularly. If we can do those things, I'll consider Stoops a major success.
The chances of us ever being consistently at or near the top of the conference are no better than someone like Bama, USC, UGA thinking they'll ever get to the point they can compete in bball vs Ky on a regular basis.
Ain't gonna happen.

Give me bowl eligibility every year and a NYD bowl at least every 5 years and I'll be happy.

The Big12, well Big 8 at the time was the best football conference with Nebraska and Oklahoma and occasionally good Colorado, OU has the longest winning streak in college history. But the Big 8 was anything but weak and the Nebraska/Oklahoma showdown was a huge game every year. When the Southwest conference had so many teams cheating it disbanded and the Big8 absorbed 4 of them that game lost some luster. But the Big 8 took a back seat to no conference in football and it compared favorably with any including the SEC at that time.

 

[ram1955]

The Big12, well Big 8 at the time was the best football conference with Nebraska and Oklahoma and occasionally good Colorado, OU has the longest winning streak in college history. But the Big 8 was anything but weak and the Nebraska/Oklahoma showdown was a huge game every year. When the Southwest conference had so many teams cheating it disbanded and the Big8 absorbed 4 of them that game lost some luster. But the Big 8 took a back seat to no conference in football and it compared favorably with any including the SEC at that time.

I may not remember pre-70's as well as you. You're right about Nebraska and OK, but still top to bottom....at least from 1970-on, they weren't the SEC. Each conf had some studs: Pac 10, Big 10, SWC,n d , etc... You are also right about the Southwest conf. Tex/Arkansas, some very fine Football. What about Missouri? When looking at their history, they didn't make a lot of big splashes, but they certainly have been respectable, having winning records all-time vs. all but Bama, Auburn and maybe UGA. Is there reason to believe they are going to continue their run in the SEC? Is there a reason Ky should not at least be their equal?

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I may not remember pre-70's as well as you. You're right about Nebraska and OK, but still top to bottom....at least from 1970-on, they weren't the SEC. Each conf had some studs: Pac 10, Big 10, SWC,n d , etc... You are also right about the Southwest conf. Tex/Arkansas, some very fine Football. What about Missouri? When looking at their history, they didn't make a lot of big splashes, but they certainly have been respectable, having winning records all-time vs. all but Bama, Auburn and maybe UGA. Is there reason to believe they are going to continue their run in the SEC? Is there a reason Ky should not at least be their equal?

lol, It wasn't all the way back to the 70's, Nebraska was pretty awesome in the 90's. But to your question about Missouri, I don't really know how well they did, or bad for that matter, everyone was playing for 3rd place for the most part. But I remember them beating a Nebraska team that went on to play for the NC on a last play pass for a TD that bounced off 3-4 players before being caught by a guy laying on his back for the winning TD. But I think that happened after it become the Big12.

But all the conference were about the same back then, a really very good 2, maybe 3 teams and a couple of pretty weak teams. SEC wasn't thought of being on the level of the other big conferences, other than Bama or even the top independents like ND and PSU. No idea why it was like that I guess because the South lacked the media attention or maybe support is a better word that those other areas had back then.. SOS changed that, he forced the conference to change the way it played, pre SOS we made the BIG10 look like a wide open conference.

 

[ram1955]

lol, It wasn't all the way back to the 70's, Nebraska was pretty awesome in the 90's. But to your question about Missouri, I don't really know how well they did, or bad for that matter, everyone was playing for 3rd place for the most part. But I remember them beating a Nebraska team that went on to play for the NC on a last play pass for a TD that bounced off 3-4 players before being caught by a guy laying on his back for the winning TD. But I think that happened after it become the Big12.

But all the conference were about the same back then, a really very good 2, maybe 3 teams and a couple of pretty weak teams. SEC wasn't thought of being on the level of the other big conferences, other than Bama or even the top independents like ND and PSU. No idea why it was like that I guess because the South lacked the media attention or maybe support is a better word that those other areas had back then.. SOS changed that, he forced the conference to change the way it played, pre SOS we made the BIG10 look like a wide open conference.

I'd forgotten about that goal line pass. You're right about Nebraska. Did they ever do anything after Osborne? Thinking back on it, now that you mention it, Bama was always the top dog. In fact, Ky was very competitive with uga, fla, lsu and even ut. I guess the SEC has become stronger as the population has migrated south.

 

[Bigblueforever]

. I guess the SEC has become stronger as the population has migrated south.[/QUOTE]


I agree that had to help,

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I'd forgotten about that goal line pass. You're right about Nebraska. Did they ever do anything after Osborne? Thinking back on it, now that you mention it, Bama was always the top dog. In fact, Ky was very competitive with uga, fla, lsu and even ut. I guess the SEC has become stronger as the population has migrated south.

They hired Solich, I think that was his name, Osborne's OC and he was successful, but not what they had become accustomed to, fired him after a 9 win season, his 3rd maybe. Now they are on their 3rd or 4th coach since the late 90's trying to get back to that level. When they left the Big12 it basically cut them off from their best recruiting area, Texas, and they haven't been able to establish themself in a new one.


In the SEC, for the most part, Bama has always been at the top and various teams have stepped up and challenged them, even beaten them for a short stretch, but it seems like that team drops off and the next one up is challenging Bama again. LSU, UF, AU, UT and even UGA have had runs at them, dropped off but Bama is still there. But I think Bama might be a little down this year, they lost a lot of offense last year and some 3-4 year starters at LB. Plus they have lost a ton of assistant coaches the last 5 years, that happens when you are successful so its to be expected.

 

[JHB4UK]

the starter of this thread should listen to Stoops on KSR this morn. Emphatically stated WE ARE NOT THERE YET, STILL GOT A WAYS TO GO. However, mentioned how good we are recruiting to this point....imagine what it is gonna be like when we have winning seasons (starting in 2015!)?? Imagine what recruiting will be like when we have an actual newly refurbished stadium to show recruits, and not animation videos of what it will be like? We can show recruits the newest most modern football practice sports science facility in the country early next year?

ain't there yet, but man how can you not be fired up beyond belief for our future? don't be stuck in the miserable past.