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College Football News Ranks UK # 40 preseason

I would put UT in the win column. Sure they beat us 50-16 last year and they also had two top five recruiting classes. But they do not have coach Mark Stoops on there sideline. His iron will to win trumps big gap in talent.

Sarcasm maybe??

I love Stoops and his drive and determination but lets be honest, his iron will to win has only resulted in 1 upset over USCjr in the 24 games he has coached here.

We may win 8 but one of them won't be against UT.
 
So you would agree that UL is much too high as well? Lose 10 draft picks from a team who only beat lowly #73 UK by 4 at home, then got stomped by 20+ against UGA in a bowl game?

Sounds like you would put UL in the 60s as well, correct?
60s? No, I don't think so. Actually, low 30s sounds about right. And while I don't place too much in these pre-season rankings, FWIW, CBS, Saturday Down South and ESPN all have UofL in their "post-spring practice" Top 25s (#25, #20 and #25). Athlon has them just outside their Top 25 as a "team to watch". Personally, I think the Cards will have a hard time going 9-3 again this year but I don't think they will as awful as many here expect.

You can't rank teams for this coming year based on 1 game from last year. Pre-season rankings are generally based on your prior "body of work" and "what's coming back" from the prior year. I said "what's coming back" not "what was lost". If you are returning players from a pretty good team there is a natural expectation you should be pretty good again this year. If you are returning players from a bad or mediocre team, there is usually an expectation you will be bad or mediocre this year (except for teams for which a "bad year" is an anomaly).

The #73 pre-season ranking I cited was by Phil Steele. FWIW, he had UofL #25 and GA at #8. He does not do a post season ranking.

Last year, the quoted publication (Scout/CFN) had UofL #36 pre-season and UK #71. Their final rankings were #32 and #91 respectively. This year UofL is pre-season #33 while UK jumps from a #91 5-7 finish to #40 pre-season? Seems a bit extreme to me.

Furthermore their rationale for that much improvement is 4 returnees from an O-line that was very pedestrian last season and "enough talent and depth returning on defense to expect a little bit of an improvement". The Cats were #111 in Sacks Allowed/Game and #107 in TFL Allowed/Game last year. And will a "little bit of an improvement" help much on a defense that was #59 in Pass Efficiency Defense, #77 in Total Defense, #91 in Rush Defense and #95 in Scoring Defense? IMO, a #91 finish last year was grossly under ranked or a #40 pre-season rank is over ranked. Regardless, there is, IMO, flawed reasoning in their numbers and/or "analysis". But, of course, what they think or what I think really doesn't matter a bit.

Last year's UofL/UK game was in doubt right up to the closing minute. UofL was very fortunate to win after giving UK a total of 24 points off TOs and a blocked punt. That's the way it goes sometimes.

Peace
 
60s? No, I don't think so. Actually, low 30s sounds about right. UofL was very fortunate to win after giving UK a total of 24 points off TOs and a blocked punt. That's the way it goes sometimes.

Peace
Always comical "wild" card. Thanks for giving us those points. Guess we gave u all your points with the jump balls to Parker? After all, beating you repeatedly off the edge and forcing sacks and fumbles is UL giving things to UK.

And things aren't based on one game. Virginia, wake Forest, UK, UGA etc etc. these teams are now very comparable, if you believe there is a 40 spot difference maybe you should refrain from posting here until late November.
 
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...After all, beating you repeatedly off the edge and forcing sacks and fumbles is UL giving things to UK....
I didn't realize it was all caused by good defense until you pointed it out. But if that was the case I would have thought UK would have done that a lot more frequently last year. If the Cats' defense could have averaged scoring 2 TDs a game it would have probably made a big difference in the season.

It is one thing to have a crappy offense but another thing entirely to have a crappy offense that is one of the national leaders in "fumbles lost". There were several games last season when the Cards defense was playing against 2 offenses...their opponent and their own. The UK game was one of them.

Peace
 
I didn't realize it was all caused by good defense until you pointed it out. But if that was the case I would have thought UK would have done that a lot more frequently last year. If the Cats' defense could have averaged scoring 2 TDs a game it would have probably made a big difference in the season.

It is one thing to have a crappy offense but another thing entirely to have a crappy offense that is one of the national leaders in "fumbles lost". There were several games last season when the Cards defense was playing against 2 offenses...their opponent and their own. The UK game was one of them.

Peace
Doesn't sound like a top 30 team to me...and now losing a couple OL to the draft, a TE and oh yeah Parker...

Good luck with that top 30 team that has to play against itself each game.
 
I didn't realize it was all caused by good defense until you pointed it out. But if that was the case I would have thought UK would have done that a lot more frequently last year. If the Cats' defense could have averaged scoring 2 TDs a game it would have probably made a big difference in the season.

It is one thing to have a crappy offense but another thing entirely to have a crappy offense that is one of the national leaders in "fumbles lost". There were several games last season when the Cards defense was playing against 2 offenses...their opponent and their own. The UK game was one of them.

Peace
the cats did do very well in forcing turnovers last year. we had our problems stopping the run and gave a few too many long passes each game but did turn teams over all year. we missed a big one in the ul game as well so it wasn't like it was all going our way.
 
the cats did do very well in forcing turnovers last year. we had our problems stopping the run and gave a few too many long passes each game but did turn teams over all year. we missed a big one in the ul game as well so it wasn't like it was all going our way.
The Cats were MUCH better at "creating" TOs last year (#41 in takeaways w/8 fumble recoveries and 15 picks) than in 2013 when they were #111 w/12 fumble recoveries + only 3 picks.

The Cards turned it over 4 times (2 fumbles and 2 INT) against the Cats plus had a punt blocked. A fumble and a pass were returned for TDs! IOW, 4 of the Cats total 23 "takeaways" occurred in this one game. These are not ordinary, run of the mill defensive plays but many on here are suggesting it was "business as usual". The only thing that was "business as usual" was UofL's offense fumbling the ball. They were very good at that, ranking #123 with 25 lost fumbles on the year. And I can recall at least 3 (maybe 4) that were returned for TDs. In fact at least 2 were recovered in the EZ for TDs. That is just terrible football. And while technically not a fumble recovery a blocked punt is usually worse than many lost fumbles because a punt block always flips the field.

Yes, the Cats dropped a ball that might have won the game but in just about any game I watch I see more dropped balls by the defense than I do picks. Just part of the game. I think the Cards' defenders dropped at least one as well.

Peace
 
The Cats were MUCH better at "creating" TOs last year (#41 in takeaways w/8 fumble recoveries and 15 picks) than in 2013 when they were #111 w/12 fumble recoveries + only 3 picks.

The Cards turned it over 4 times (2 fumbles and 2 INT) against the Cats plus had a punt blocked. A fumble and a pass were returned for TDs! IOW, 4 of the Cats total 23 "takeaways" occurred in this one game. These are not ordinary, run of the mill defensive plays but many on here are suggesting it was "business as usual". The only thing that was "business as usual" was UofL's offense fumbling the ball. They were very good at that, ranking #123 with 25 lost fumbles on the year. And I can recall at least 3 (maybe 4) that were returned for TDs. In fact at least 2 were recovered in the EZ for TDs. That is just terrible football. And while technically not a fumble recovery a blocked punt is usually worse than many lost fumbles because a punt block always flips the field.

Yes, the Cats dropped a ball that might have won the game but in just about any game I watch I see more dropped balls by the defense than I do picks. Just part of the game. I think the Cards' defenders dropped at least one as well.

Peace

but as a "fan" of both teams im sure you noticed that UK had several plays during the year that were missed. in the ul game we missed 1 int. in the uf game we missed 2. in the missou game we missed 1. im not talking about "could of if we'd of made an awesome play", im talking about player in perfect position to make a play and it just dropped out of his hands. now there is no question that the bye week to heal up helped us a lot but early in the year we were doing that against lesser teams. but using the eye test... did you really think that ul looked like the far superior team that just turned it over a bunch and gave away a bunch of points or did it look like two pretty even teams and one of the teams had a couple superstars that the other team couldn't match?

ps. i compare last years game to cobb and lockes last against ul. i thought going into that game that we would walk all over you guys. but after the game i felt that if we didn't have those 2 guys it was a tossup. of course the next year you beat us in a tossup game.... with a young team that returned dang near everybody. i think that many in your fanbase are doing what UK fans did after cobb and locke left... assuming we would just continue beating you cause we were good and you stunk. truth is much more complicated than that.

the question (a derogatory one) from ul fans a couple years ago was "does UK have anyone that would start for ul?" well we actually discussed that on this board and we came up with 4 or 5 out of 22 starters on offense or defense. last year i would of put UK at 8 to 10 starters out of 22. this year i believe that UK would have 12 to 14 starters in the equation. its not just blue tinted glasses. anyone who watched the last 3 games we've played against each other can see the pendulum swing (talent wise) back towards the UK side. now talent does not always equate to a win just as last year ul was more talented but if we make that int then we win.
 
but as a "fan" of both teams im sure you noticed that UK had several plays during the year that were missed. in the ul game we missed 1 int. in the uf game we missed 2. in the missou game we missed 1. im not talking about "could of if we'd of made an awesome play", im talking about player in perfect position to make a play and it just dropped out of his hands. now there is no question that the bye week to heal up helped us a lot but early in the year we were doing that against lesser teams. but using the eye test... did you really think that ul looked like the far superior team that just turned it over a bunch and gave away a bunch of points or did it look like two pretty even teams and one of the teams had a couple superstars that the other team couldn't match?

ps. i compare last years game to cobb and lockes last against ul. i thought going into that game that we would walk all over you guys. but after the game i felt that if we didn't have those 2 guys it was a tossup. of course the next year you beat us in a tossup game.... with a young team that returned dang near everybody. i think that many in your fanbase are doing what UK fans did after cobb and locke left... assuming we would just continue beating you cause we were good and you stunk. truth is much more complicated than that.

the question (a derogatory one) from ul fans a couple years ago was "does UK have anyone that would start for ul?" well we actually discussed that on this board and we came up with 4 or 5 out of 22 starters on offense or defense. last year i would of put UK at 8 to 10 starters out of 22. this year i believe that UK would have 12 to 14 starters in the equation. its not just blue tinted glasses. anyone who watched the last 3 games we've played against each other can see the pendulum swing (talent wise) back towards the UK side. now talent does not always equate to a win just as last year ul was more talented but if we make that int then we win.

Drops by the defense happen to everybody; I mean everybody. IIRC, the guy who led the country in pick dropped one in his gut early in the game. As a fan,you bury your face in your hands but it happened. But, notwithstanding the miscues UofL looked like the better team, maybe not a "far superior" but a better team. Props to the UK defense for shutting down a Cardinal running game that had actually shown signs of life in the second half of the year. And, somewhat conversely, props to them for running it well against what had been a pretty damn tough run defense. But UofL still out gained UK by about 150 yards but only won by 4. And that's what happens when you make those kinds of mistakes. And I would add those scoring plays by the UK defense were not particularly "spectacular" plays; just opportunistic. And that's fine; that's what t he defense should do.

The Cards flat out lost 2 games last year on fumbles recovered for TDs. So they "could" have been 11-2 on the year. Painful, but I just don't play that old iffin' game anymore. I see many really good teams play some bad football from time to time. But, more often than not, they pull those games out; that's why they are good. So until you can "make the play" you just wear the result.

And, yes, there are plenty of Cardinal fans that hate UK so badly they can only see "same old Kentucky" and don't see the caliber of players they have been bringing in. But I do. I'll wait until I see some game this year before "picking" a winner but, in the big picture, I think both teams are going to be better than what the opposing fans think.

Peace
 
The Cats were MUCH better at "creating" TOs last year (#41 in takeaways w/8 fumble recoveries and 15 picks) than in 2013 when they were #111 w/12 fumble recoveries + only 3 picks.

The Cards turned it over 4 times (2 fumbles and 2 INT) against the Cats plus had a punt blocked. A fumble and a pass were returned for TDs! IOW, 4 of the Cats total 23 "takeaways" occurred in this one game. These are not ordinary, run of the mill defensive plays but many on here are suggesting it was "business as usual". The only thing that was "business as usual" was UofL's offense fumbling the ball. They were very good at that, ranking #123 with 25 lost fumbles on the year. And I can recall at least 3 (maybe 4) that were returned for TDs. In fact at least 2 were recovered in the EZ for TDs. That is just terrible football. And while technically not a fumble recovery a blocked punt is usually worse than many lost fumbles because a punt block always flips the field.

Yes, the Cats dropped a ball that might have won the game but in just about any game I watch I see more dropped balls by the defense than I do picks. Just part of the game. I think the Cards' defenders dropped at least one as well.

Peace
Let's just agree that you can pick things out that you think benefitted us and we can do the opposite
 
The Cats were MUCH better at "creating" TOs last year (#41 in takeaways w/8 fumble recoveries and 15 picks) than in 2013 when they were #111 w/12 fumble recoveries + only 3 picks.

The Cards turned it over 4 times (2 fumbles and 2 INT) against the Cats plus had a punt blocked. A fumble and a pass were returned for TDs! IOW, 4 of the Cats total 23 "takeaways" occurred in this one game. These are not ordinary, run of the mill defensive plays but many on here are suggesting it was "business as usual". The only thing that was "business as usual" was UofL's offense fumbling the ball. They were very good at that, ranking #123 with 25 lost fumbles on the year. And I can recall at least 3 (maybe 4) that were returned for TDs. In fact at least 2 were recovered in the EZ for TDs. That is just terrible football. And while technically not a fumble recovery a blocked punt is usually worse than many lost fumbles because a punt block always flips the field.

Yes, the Cats dropped a ball that might have won the game but in just about any game I watch I see more dropped balls by the defense than I do picks. Just part of the game. I think the Cards' defenders dropped at least one as well.

Peace
Card, if you don't see the momentum change when you first string QB got hurt, then you're blind as you sound.... That was the turning point... The players that we practiced and put on the field were beating your first team... So, you had a guy come of the bench after an injury at home and play out of his mind... It often happens in every sport.. If not for their best QB getting an injury, Kentucky would have beat you last year... Do you deny that?
 
Here is CBS Post Spring Top 25...Kentucky Opponents:

7. Auburn: The defense has to be better, especially with the addition of coordinator Will Muschamp. The Tigers gave up at least 31 points six times last season, the most in one campaign since 2011. At quarterback, Jeremy Johnson may be Nick Marshall plus one-half.

10. Georgia: With some decent quarterback play, the Bulldogs should win the SEC East. OK, without decent quarterback play the Dawgs could still win the East. Nick Chubb could be a 1,700-yard rusher in a league that values that approach.


14. Mississippi State: Dan Mullen produced the most NFL draft picks in Starkville since 1995 (five). Dak Prescott wasn't one of them, giving the Bulldogs a chance in 2015. They won't challenge for a playoff berth, but they won't go away either.

15. Missouri: How do you pick against the Tigers in the SEC East? Since 2001, only three schools have played in back-to-back SEC title games. Missouri is one of them. Look at the schedule. The Tigers should be 6-0 heading to Georgia on Oct. 17.

24. Tennessee: Few teams have as much potential as the Vols. Back-to-back top five recruiting classes by Butch Jones have repositioned Tennessee. First, the SEC East. Tomorrow, the SEC! At least that's what they're thinking in Knoxville.

25. Louisville: This is why athletic director Tom Jurich rehired Bobby Petrino: He won nine games in his first season (back). That's the sixth time in 10 years as a head coach Petrino's won at least that many. Elsewhere, express your (possible) outrage any way you wish. Petrino signed former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Devonte Fields

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...ate-will-begin-2015-where-it-left-off-in-2014

ESPN Post Spring Top 25...Kentucky Opponents

4. Auburn Tigers

If new quarterback Jeremy Johnson is as good as advertised, Auburn coach Gus Malzahn's high-octane spread offense should be better than ever. Will Auburn's defense be any better? Malzahn hired former Florida coach Will Muschamp to give his team's defense more teeth, and linemen Montravius Adams and Carl Lawson are good building blocks.

9. Georgia Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have to get more out of their passing game so they're not completely one-dimensional. Tailback Nick Chubb is going to carry a heavy load after running for 1,547 yards with 14 touchdowns as a freshman. Georgia's defense improved dramatically under first-year coordinator Jeremy Pruitt in 2014, and linebackers Leonard Floyd, Jordan Jenkinsand Lorenzo Carter might punish opposing quarterbacks this coming season.

20. Tennessee Volunteers

The Volunteers have been taking baby steps to relevancy under coach Butch Jones, going 12-13 in his first two seasons. Now, it's time for Tennessee's recruiting success and potential to start translating into victories. Quarterback Joshua Dobbsand tailback Jalen Hurd are nice pieces on offense, and they'll have four returning offensive linemen blocking for them. Tennessee's schedule is also favorable, with only four true road games: at Florida, Alabama, Kentucky and Missouri

24. Missouri Tigers

If we learned anything in the SEC the past two seasons it was to not overlook the Tigers, even with heavy personnel losses. Missouri surprised everyone by winning the SEC East for a second straight season in 2014. To win a third consecutive SEC East title, the Tigers will have to replace star defensive ends Markus Golden and Shane Ray, as well as most of their receivers. The good news: Missouri will play division rivals South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee at home.

25. Louisville Cardinals

After going 9-4 in its first season in the ACC, the Cardinals are looking for a quick fix in Year 2. Coach Bobby Petrino brought in a bunch of transfers to shore up his receiver corps and defense. Former TCU star Devonte Fields could provide a better pass rush, and Georgia transfers Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins should help shore up the secondary. Ja'Quay Williams (Texas A&M) and Jamari Staples (UAB) might help restock a depleted receiver corps.

http://espn.go.com/college-football...tate-buckeyes-lock-no-1-spot-too-early-top-25
 
7-5 at the worst. 8-4 is very doable.
besides being in love with your avatar (dirty old man style) I am seeing what you see but at the worse I gotta go 6-6 just because of we are still young in DEPTH

but I also like that when CFN said "Biggest Negative: .....Two good targets – Javess Blue and Demarco Robinson – have to be replaced." - I truly believe (as I have seen quite a few more have in reports) this is a position of MAJOR UPGRADE this season
 
Looking at the early top 25 you can see that we have 2 games that are definite losses - Auburn and Georgia. Those are top 10 teams and I'm not sure we're ready to compete against those guys. Should play them close but in the end think they are too much.

However, looking at the rest of those, I think we can win 2 of those against UL, Miss St, Mizzou and UT. I'm predicting UL and Mizzou. Even just getting 1 of those would be big.

But I don't consider UL a top 25 team this year. Lose too much and too many question marks on offense.
 
The Cats were MUCH better at "creating" TOs last year (#41 in takeaways w/8 fumble recoveries and 15 picks) than in 2013 when they were #111 w/12 fumble recoveries + only 3 picks.

The Cards turned it over 4 times (2 fumbles and 2 INT) against the Cats plus had a punt blocked. A fumble and a pass were returned for TDs! IOW, 4 of the Cats total 23 "takeaways" occurred in this one game. These are not ordinary, run of the mill defensive plays but many on here are suggesting it was "business as usual". The only thing that was "business as usual" was UofL's offense fumbling the ball. They were very good at that, ranking #123 with 25 lost fumbles on the year. And I can recall at least 3 (maybe 4) that were returned for TDs. In fact at least 2 were recovered in the EZ for TDs. That is just terrible football. And while technically not a fumble recovery a blocked punt is usually worse than many lost fumbles because a punt block always flips the field.

Yes, the Cats dropped a ball that might have won the game but in just about any game I watch I see more dropped balls by the defense than I do picks. Just part of the game. I think the Cards' defenders dropped at least one as well.

Peace

The blocked punt was a little abnormal but that is still a football play. You still have to count it as play made by the defense and not just say that UL messed up. It might not happen again all season and it sucks for UL that it happened in that one game but on the other hand UK giving up two special teams TDs against LSU sucks as well. Blocked punts are common but they do happen.

You mention 4 of 23 TOs in one game as is if that is relevant. 23 TOs for the year is about 2 per game. So OK we got 2 more against you than we did on average. That's not an unexpected result. If UL turned the ball overs 7 or 8 times then maybe that is valid point but 2 more picks against UL than our average per game isn't. Otherwise you would also have to say Georgia was lucky because we didn't force our normal 2 TOs against them.

Also keep in mind that UK out rushed UL for the game. It wasn't a total UL domination of UK where UK was only spared by UL's miscues. UL was badly out played for most of the game. Also you were picked by Stamps and nearly picked by McWilson. Those two had a total of 7 picks for the year. Including 2 returned for TDs. Those are run of the mill plays for those guys. Also by your own admission UL was fumble prone. This too is more typical than you stated.
 
The blocked punt was a little abnormal but that is still a football play. You still have to count it as play made by the defense and not just say that UL messed up. It might not happen again all season and it sucks for UL that it happened in that one game but on the other hand UK giving up two special teams TDs against LSU sucks as well. Blocked punts are common but they do happen.

You mention 4 of 23 TOs in one game as is if that is relevant. 23 TOs for the year is about 2 per game. So OK we got 2 more against you than we did on average. That's not an unexpected result. If UL turned the ball overs 7 or 8 times then maybe that is valid point but 2 more picks against UL than our average per game isn't. Otherwise you would also have to say Georgia was lucky because we didn't force our normal 2 TOs against them.

Also keep in mind that UK out rushed UL for the game. It wasn't a total UL domination of UK where UK was only spared by UL's miscues. UL was badly out played for most of the game. Also you were picked by Stamps and nearly picked by McWilson. Those two had a total of 7 picks for the year. Including 2 returned for TDs. Those are run of the mill plays for those guys. Also by your own admission UL was fumble prone. This too is more typical than you stated.

Good post TB...here are some stats I posted in another thread about the turnovers/forced turnovers for each team.

And look deeper into the season turnovers/turnovers forced and things played out predictably.

UK forced 25 fumbles and recovered 8 on the year (2 vs UL)
UK was forced into 20 fumbles but only lost 4 on the year (0 vs UL)

UL only had 4 fumble recoveries on the year (0 vs UK)
UL was forced into 25 fumbles, losing 16 ( 2vs UK)

UKs defense had a decent 15 INTs on the year (2 vs UL)
UL threw a limited 10 INTs on the year (2 vs UK)

ULs defense had a great 25 INTs on the year (2 vs UK)
UK limited the INTs to 11 on the year (2 vs UL)

And these numbers are 12 games vs 13 games.
 
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