Some people (Okay, a lot of people) have been wringing hands over the past month, and understandably so, but if you take a closer look at the roster, things really aren't that bad, all things considered. Let's review:
We lost 7 players, but we also went 10 deep (counting Poythress), and had very little drop-off last season. The one area we had visible drop-off was when Johnson came in for Towns, and the other area we statistically had a drop-off (but it was hard to tell on the court at times), was when Aaron Harrison was in, and not Booker.
It's not hard to figure out why we had drop-off there. Aaron was a volume shooter, but couldn't find his stroke until the tournament. Dakari was wildly unathletic, and just didn't have the offensive arsenal to do much, being that he didn't have his size anymore.
Those two are easy replacements, and I mean that in the most objective way. We have already gotten replacements for them, and honestly, we have a more efficient replacement for Booker. Mulder brings everything that Booker brought, and then some. Booker had a knack for hitting open shots, but Mulder can do the same clearly. He's shot more threes than Booker, and hit 5% more of them (Good for 46%). I'll also wager that Mulder has hit his share of contested threes. Booker really didn't take many contested shots though, so I expect that we'll get similar, or better production from the 2 and 3 spots.
It should be incredibly easy for Briscoe to shoot better than Aaron Harrison. I expect Briscoe to give us the same kind of production that we got from Andrew Harrison at the end of the season. Taking good shots, passing it well, but most importantly (and Briscoe has shown this in all of his game), aggressiveness. Andrew's aggressiveness took us a long way last season, I expect the same from Briscoe. The only difference? Briscoe is the significantly better ball handler and passer, which proves useful against teams that apply pressure, where Andrew struggled at times last year, namely @ the crow's nest to the west.
I expect a similar type of production from Poythress that we expected out of WCS. There are things that Poy can do that WCS never could, and vice versa. Poy cannot make himself 4 inches and block shots at the level that WCS could. WCS was never able to fight through contact for a tough rebound, or a tough putback. Never really able to overpower opponents on his way to the basket for dunks on a consistent basis. Both can provide similar perimeter defense, both can steal the ball well, both can make run-down blocks. The only thing is that Poy can provide more on offense, and on defensive rebounding than WCS. I've preached constantly, if we have Poy vs Wisconsin, we would have won, so I have no doubt that we'll win plenty of games with him.
The biggest comparison here; Labissiere vs Towns. Towns ended up being terrific, but let's be honest here. He was soft when he came in. He was soft, and Cal didn't put him on the perimeter because of his size. It'll be a bit different this year. Skal certainly doesn't have Towns' weight. Can top his height, athleticism, shooting ability, but not his weight, which ultimately led to Towns being one of the best post scorers in college basketball last season. I think Labissiere will allow UK to spread the floor more and lead to a better offense than this past season (which would help Ulis out because he wouldn't face many shot blockers if they're out towards the perimeter, and you can't just leave Skal open), so this should be exciting. As far as coming into college, I think we can all agree that Skal is the better player coming in than Towns was, now we just have to see how Skal finishes his college career vs how Towns did. If we can get similar production here, I think all of us would be very, very happy.
Speaking of Ulis in the past paragraph, we all know how terrific of a PG he is. He very well may be the best facilitator in college basketball next season. He has uncanny court vision, passing ability, speed, and ball handling. Many even felt at the end of the year that Ulis should have the starting job, and even more felt that way at the beginning of the year. Andrew did great, but now it's Tyler Ulis' time to shine, and I think all of us believe in him to lead this team.
So to summarize (offensively):
PG. Ulis > Andrew (the point guard has to move the ball. It's what a point guard should do. Ulis is a terrific shooter, so if the opportunity presents itself, he'll take the shot, and make it often, but he will always set our team up for the best possible chance to score).
SG. Briscoe > Aaron (Will be hard to not be the better shooter than Aaron was last season. Plus, it gives us a much better ball handler, and a more aggressive player).
SG/SF. Mulder > Booker/Lyles (Just a much better shooter. He gets in there and is a tough rebounder too on both ends. Real inside/out player that can spread the floor much better for UK on offense, more athletic than any guard that UK had last season, and can make big athletic plays that we thrive off of).
PF. Poythress > WCS (Better offensive player. Similar skillsets, but Poythress is better at utilizing that skillset offensively)
C. Labissiere = Towns (Terrific production from Towns last season. I expect similar offensive production, but in a different way. Labissiere is an outstanding jumpshooter, more-so than Towns. Cal won't tell Labissiere to play like Towns did because of the frame difference, so the floor will definitely be opened up on offense, which leads to more scoring for the rest of the team.
(Now on defense)
PG. Ulis > Andrew (Just like last year, Ulis' perimeter defense is outstanding)
SG. Briscoe > Aaron (Similar athleticism, but Briscoe is a much more physical defender. He gets in there to steal the ball, and when he gets ahold of it, he tears it away. He'll have the same type of issues that Aaron had at times in staying in front of his man)
SG/SF Mulder < Booker/Lyles (Until proven otherwise, this position is what gave a ton of teams issues because a lot of teams at the college level were outsized by 4, 6, sometimes 8 inches here. Tough to overcome defensively)
Poythress < WCS (National defensive player of the year, it's hard to argue. Poythress is a better perimeter defender, but we won't get the kind of defensive efficiency that we got from WCS from Poy, from the inside out)
C. Labissiere > Towns (Towns was a good shot blocker, but got around 2 fouls for every block it seemed. Labissiere rarely fouls from what I've watched. Very good athleticism and body control, and superb timing when it comes to blocking shots. He also plays very good perimeter, and pick and roll defense. This is one of the more highly touted parts of his game, despite having the most diverse offensive skill-set in this class).
Bench:
It won't top this past season's bench, it'll be impossible to do so. That said, your average team, and when I say average, I mean average among other great teams, run with a 7 man rotation. That's what we're going to have with Lee (PF/C) and Matthews (SG/SF) coming off the bench. Willis and Hawkins may be able to make a surge in the offseason to play their way into a lineup, but not for a ton of minutes I imagine. If they get back to playing like they were in the Bahamas this past season, I think we all would be content with their production.
All of this said, I think a lot of the hand wringing, and idiots saying "We may be in the top 20... Maybe....", is incredibly unnecessary. This is a very, very good roster, with a lot of better offensive pieces, and at least translatable defensive pieces. Will it be GOAT defense? No, but it will be tough on the inside, and even tougher on the perimeter, and that's what we're looking for. Not to mention, it will be very quick all over the floor.
We're not going to have a season like last year, but this team can contend for a title, mainly due to a very dynamic backcourt that can make shots, and make plays, with the addition of the top projected player in the draft coming in, who happens to be the #1 player in the class according to Rivals. Teams have won titles with much less. We're in for a good year.
We lost 7 players, but we also went 10 deep (counting Poythress), and had very little drop-off last season. The one area we had visible drop-off was when Johnson came in for Towns, and the other area we statistically had a drop-off (but it was hard to tell on the court at times), was when Aaron Harrison was in, and not Booker.
It's not hard to figure out why we had drop-off there. Aaron was a volume shooter, but couldn't find his stroke until the tournament. Dakari was wildly unathletic, and just didn't have the offensive arsenal to do much, being that he didn't have his size anymore.
Those two are easy replacements, and I mean that in the most objective way. We have already gotten replacements for them, and honestly, we have a more efficient replacement for Booker. Mulder brings everything that Booker brought, and then some. Booker had a knack for hitting open shots, but Mulder can do the same clearly. He's shot more threes than Booker, and hit 5% more of them (Good for 46%). I'll also wager that Mulder has hit his share of contested threes. Booker really didn't take many contested shots though, so I expect that we'll get similar, or better production from the 2 and 3 spots.
It should be incredibly easy for Briscoe to shoot better than Aaron Harrison. I expect Briscoe to give us the same kind of production that we got from Andrew Harrison at the end of the season. Taking good shots, passing it well, but most importantly (and Briscoe has shown this in all of his game), aggressiveness. Andrew's aggressiveness took us a long way last season, I expect the same from Briscoe. The only difference? Briscoe is the significantly better ball handler and passer, which proves useful against teams that apply pressure, where Andrew struggled at times last year, namely @ the crow's nest to the west.
I expect a similar type of production from Poythress that we expected out of WCS. There are things that Poy can do that WCS never could, and vice versa. Poy cannot make himself 4 inches and block shots at the level that WCS could. WCS was never able to fight through contact for a tough rebound, or a tough putback. Never really able to overpower opponents on his way to the basket for dunks on a consistent basis. Both can provide similar perimeter defense, both can steal the ball well, both can make run-down blocks. The only thing is that Poy can provide more on offense, and on defensive rebounding than WCS. I've preached constantly, if we have Poy vs Wisconsin, we would have won, so I have no doubt that we'll win plenty of games with him.
The biggest comparison here; Labissiere vs Towns. Towns ended up being terrific, but let's be honest here. He was soft when he came in. He was soft, and Cal didn't put him on the perimeter because of his size. It'll be a bit different this year. Skal certainly doesn't have Towns' weight. Can top his height, athleticism, shooting ability, but not his weight, which ultimately led to Towns being one of the best post scorers in college basketball last season. I think Labissiere will allow UK to spread the floor more and lead to a better offense than this past season (which would help Ulis out because he wouldn't face many shot blockers if they're out towards the perimeter, and you can't just leave Skal open), so this should be exciting. As far as coming into college, I think we can all agree that Skal is the better player coming in than Towns was, now we just have to see how Skal finishes his college career vs how Towns did. If we can get similar production here, I think all of us would be very, very happy.
Speaking of Ulis in the past paragraph, we all know how terrific of a PG he is. He very well may be the best facilitator in college basketball next season. He has uncanny court vision, passing ability, speed, and ball handling. Many even felt at the end of the year that Ulis should have the starting job, and even more felt that way at the beginning of the year. Andrew did great, but now it's Tyler Ulis' time to shine, and I think all of us believe in him to lead this team.
So to summarize (offensively):
PG. Ulis > Andrew (the point guard has to move the ball. It's what a point guard should do. Ulis is a terrific shooter, so if the opportunity presents itself, he'll take the shot, and make it often, but he will always set our team up for the best possible chance to score).
SG. Briscoe > Aaron (Will be hard to not be the better shooter than Aaron was last season. Plus, it gives us a much better ball handler, and a more aggressive player).
SG/SF. Mulder > Booker/Lyles (Just a much better shooter. He gets in there and is a tough rebounder too on both ends. Real inside/out player that can spread the floor much better for UK on offense, more athletic than any guard that UK had last season, and can make big athletic plays that we thrive off of).
PF. Poythress > WCS (Better offensive player. Similar skillsets, but Poythress is better at utilizing that skillset offensively)
C. Labissiere = Towns (Terrific production from Towns last season. I expect similar offensive production, but in a different way. Labissiere is an outstanding jumpshooter, more-so than Towns. Cal won't tell Labissiere to play like Towns did because of the frame difference, so the floor will definitely be opened up on offense, which leads to more scoring for the rest of the team.
(Now on defense)
PG. Ulis > Andrew (Just like last year, Ulis' perimeter defense is outstanding)
SG. Briscoe > Aaron (Similar athleticism, but Briscoe is a much more physical defender. He gets in there to steal the ball, and when he gets ahold of it, he tears it away. He'll have the same type of issues that Aaron had at times in staying in front of his man)
SG/SF Mulder < Booker/Lyles (Until proven otherwise, this position is what gave a ton of teams issues because a lot of teams at the college level were outsized by 4, 6, sometimes 8 inches here. Tough to overcome defensively)
Poythress < WCS (National defensive player of the year, it's hard to argue. Poythress is a better perimeter defender, but we won't get the kind of defensive efficiency that we got from WCS from Poy, from the inside out)
C. Labissiere > Towns (Towns was a good shot blocker, but got around 2 fouls for every block it seemed. Labissiere rarely fouls from what I've watched. Very good athleticism and body control, and superb timing when it comes to blocking shots. He also plays very good perimeter, and pick and roll defense. This is one of the more highly touted parts of his game, despite having the most diverse offensive skill-set in this class).
Bench:
It won't top this past season's bench, it'll be impossible to do so. That said, your average team, and when I say average, I mean average among other great teams, run with a 7 man rotation. That's what we're going to have with Lee (PF/C) and Matthews (SG/SF) coming off the bench. Willis and Hawkins may be able to make a surge in the offseason to play their way into a lineup, but not for a ton of minutes I imagine. If they get back to playing like they were in the Bahamas this past season, I think we all would be content with their production.
All of this said, I think a lot of the hand wringing, and idiots saying "We may be in the top 20... Maybe....", is incredibly unnecessary. This is a very, very good roster, with a lot of better offensive pieces, and at least translatable defensive pieces. Will it be GOAT defense? No, but it will be tough on the inside, and even tougher on the perimeter, and that's what we're looking for. Not to mention, it will be very quick all over the floor.
We're not going to have a season like last year, but this team can contend for a title, mainly due to a very dynamic backcourt that can make shots, and make plays, with the addition of the top projected player in the draft coming in, who happens to be the #1 player in the class according to Rivals. Teams have won titles with much less. We're in for a good year.
