I have already predicted in other threads that Kentucky will win 6-7 games and get invited to a bowl. After reading all the news I can get my hands on from our spring practices and our opponents, here are 5 new predictions. 1. Shannon Dawson was presented to our fans as a continuation of the same offensive system, but he has made changes in the way things are done and will produce a big increase in our offensive production and efficiency. 2. Because of a senior defensive line and a stellar season by Forrest, our defense will show enough improvement against the run to keep us competitive in SEC games that no 1 thinks we can win now. 3. Our most improved players will be Patrick Towles, Mikel Horton, Dorian Baker, Farrington Huguenin, and Jason Hatcher. 4. Austin MacGinnis will win at least 2 games with late field goals. 5. We will beat Missouri on September 26 and Louisville on November 28 in Lexington.
5 guesses for our season
- Thread starter Blue Decade
- Start date
5 good points.
1. While Dawson comes from the "air raid coaching tree", he seems to want to have more of a pro style offense from a spread set. He wants to be able to run the ball and go over the top as opposed to the short quick passing from the air raid.
2. Our defense will be better next season. The players have gained experience and are getting more comfortable at their positions. Not just seniors on the DL, but also depth being built across the whole team.
3. I look for all the players you listed to have better years. Not sure how much we will see from Horton with Boom and Jojo ahead of him. But he will have better numbers than last year. I look for Hatcher to have a breakout season.
4. I hope we fans realize how lucky we are to have MacGinnis as our kicker. He impressed me last year as a freshman. He seemed to gain more confidence as he gained experience last year. And I am sure the coaches and teammates trust him. Hope we won't be in positions where he is needed to win games late for us. Maybe push a 7 point lead to 10 will work. But if we need him to make a kick to win, I trust in him to do it.
5. I think we win all the out of conference games, plus Vandy, Florida, and Missouri to get to 7 wins and a trip to Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Not a big stretch to think we can get USC also and go to Tampa for the Outback Bowl. Either bowl game would be huge for future recruiting.
1. While Dawson comes from the "air raid coaching tree", he seems to want to have more of a pro style offense from a spread set. He wants to be able to run the ball and go over the top as opposed to the short quick passing from the air raid.
2. Our defense will be better next season. The players have gained experience and are getting more comfortable at their positions. Not just seniors on the DL, but also depth being built across the whole team.
3. I look for all the players you listed to have better years. Not sure how much we will see from Horton with Boom and Jojo ahead of him. But he will have better numbers than last year. I look for Hatcher to have a breakout season.
4. I hope we fans realize how lucky we are to have MacGinnis as our kicker. He impressed me last year as a freshman. He seemed to gain more confidence as he gained experience last year. And I am sure the coaches and teammates trust him. Hope we won't be in positions where he is needed to win games late for us. Maybe push a 7 point lead to 10 will work. But if we need him to make a kick to win, I trust in him to do it.
5. I think we win all the out of conference games, plus Vandy, Florida, and Missouri to get to 7 wins and a trip to Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Not a big stretch to think we can get USC also and go to Tampa for the Outback Bowl. Either bowl game would be huge for future recruiting.
For the 1st time since 2007, we finally have the arm plus the athletic receivers to beat SEC secondaries vertically, the way Dawson prefers to attack. Dawson has made changes with blocking techniques on our offensive line that will be important for our success. We have some talent on our offensive line, and Dawson is giving them a better chance to win difficult 1 on 1 matchups.
I think Boom and Horton will become our co #1 running backs. Boom is a game breaker, but his history with the concussion may make Dawson use him a little more selectively as the season wears on. Jo Jo should get a new life under Dawson. Jo Jo has talent and speed, but Boom and Horton are a little more what you look for in an every down back. If Horton masters pass blocking and receiving, he might be the most improved player on our team.
WRs as a unit are a question mark I think. Good potential? Sure. But the younger guys really struggled against SEC teams. Couldn't get off the LOS or get separation. Certainly a year's experience and weight training will help but to me they're a huge question mark. Blue will be hard to replace.
Disagree. I think we have the most talented group of receivers in my lifetime. I know the Tamme group was good, but this group is even better. Loads of talent. I saw flashes from true Freshmen last season such as Bone. He is just one that will be big time players. There are several other future stars.....
Timmons
Baker
Johnson
Badet
T.V.
Bone
Montgomery
Just to name a few....
We do have talent at the WR spot. It is just unproven. I am looking for huge numbers from this offense.
All college football players start out young and then gain experience. In more established programs, young players learn in practice while juniors and seniors play in games. At several positions, Stoops doesn't have that luxury yet. He has to start somewhere. Getting off the line of scrimmage and getting separation takes strength, quickness, footwork. It also helps if the defense is worried about your running game. This year, they will be worried. Our running game will be better this year, and our group of receivers is bigger, stronger, and much deeper. Getting back Baker, Montgomery, Badet is important. Blue was a good player but we have 6-8 more now with higher upsides. I think receiver is the most improved position on our football team.
This cannot be stated enough. People seem to forget the Freshman seasons these Badet and Montgomery had. Badet came on strong in the UT game and got behind their D a few times. Montgomery was becoming a very solid possecion receiver before tearing up his knee. Baker has all the tools to become a great receiver too.
Yes, people have forgotten....Badet and Montgomery looked excellent their Freshman year. We've got them back now in addition to many others. I hope Towles is accurate and gets some time because these receivers are very talented.
I agree with this, but there is more to add:
-The offense will likely be much, much improved from last yr
-Some of the improvement will be due to the changes Dawson has made. I think he's a bit more flexible than Brown is and would prefer a little more balance under ideal conditions.
-However, the vast, vast majority of offensive improvement will be due to player maturation and development......and not due solely to Dawson.
-A lot of casual UK fans will attribute the improvement to Dawson......and they will put down Brown unfairly.
Blue, I get you point and I for one understand CNB limited resources however he did contribute to some head scratching play calling. Now some would say that youth effected what he could call but I do contend with just a few. Such as the drag route, it is not hard to teach this route, the right depth of the route in certain situations but the route no less is not difficult. And in all my viewing (not saying it was stellar) I never witnessed it called regularly which is odd since it is a staple of the AR offense. Not to mention the growth of the play calling were on several occasions in wildcat the corner covering QB blitzed with reckless abandoned. Not once was there an adjustment to throw out to Towles. Even if it doesn't work it would keep 1 less talker out the box. Another thing that never adjusted was the jet sweep, out of all the times called I can only recall 1 time it being handed off, again have to keep defense honest which it could have , lead to big plays.
Also, accountability to the OL. Like Dawson said, OL are taught early how to run block so do it. Simple. And I am wondering if Dawson will allow so many subs at positions (especially RB ) go look at t ape, when any RB did any good they were yanked for "rest", what UK didn't recruit a bell cow? So many times in games the RB got only 4 touches, how can they build a rhythm that way?
Yes, maturation will be part but trying "to succeed" rather than acquiescence to the notion you "can't succeed" due to youth will be a major part too which Dawson seems to bring to the table. IMO
I think we will see deeper routes and more tight end passing over the middle, at least that is my wish. But in the end Dawson keeps saying he will run whatever the defense gives him. I like that too.
My five predictions.....
[1] The QB's will blossom under Dawson's instruction.
[2] Hatcher and Ware will have monster years taking over for Z and Bud.
[3] UK will win more than one SEC road game.
[4] The beauty of the renovated Commonwealth will be tarnished by the parking situation.
[5] UK will be ranked when Auburn comes to town.
[1] The QB's will blossom under Dawson's instruction.
[2] Hatcher and Ware will have monster years taking over for Z and Bud.
[3] UK will win more than one SEC road game.
[4] The beauty of the renovated Commonwealth will be tarnished by the parking situation.
[5] UK will be ranked when Auburn comes to town.
Oh, Brown wasn't perfect the last few years by any stretch. But the casual UK fan will attribute all the poor offense to him. He was one of the hottest OCs for a reason. I just hate to see a member of the UK family get blasted unfairly.
The development and maturation of the team will be the largest determining factor. The offense the 2nd yr was far better than yr 1.....and yr 3 will be much improved.....yr 4 will be better than 3.
Offensive and defensive line play is what is going to decide this season. Big question marks for both right now.
Much better play, by both lines, than before maybe 7 wins. Very little improvement then 5 to 6 wins. 2016, when more redshirts hit the field then I like 7 wins with an outside chance of 8.
That's pretty heady improvement for a team with a third year coach and a 2-2-5 previous three seasons.
Much better play, by both lines, than before maybe 7 wins. Very little improvement then 5 to 6 wins. 2016, when more redshirts hit the field then I like 7 wins with an outside chance of 8.
That's pretty heady improvement for a team with a third year coach and a 2-2-5 previous three seasons.
I am stoked about MacGinnis. He had 3 to play, and is obviously going to swing some games for us, and not just in the closing seconds. He is going to post some 4 and 5 FG games before he is done, in situations where the sum of those scores will taken together make all the difference. It helps when getting to the 35 yd line means you are almost certain to score. No pooch punting. No unconverted 4th down attempts at the 30 yd line. Just points.
Brown's credentials are indisputable. He was a good coordinator at TT, and he would have been as successful at Kentucky if given more time. But I like what Dawson has been saying. The keys to this offense, aside from Dawson, are Towles' maturation, a more experienced offensive line, and a bigger, deeper group of receivers.
I would inject into the conversation that IMO Brown was reluctant to throw over the middle because he did not trust Towles reads over the middle. Towles made some really questionable throws over the middle. Teams caught on to this as the season progressed and were sitting on the out routes. Let hope Towles has improved in this area,
For a sophomore in his 1st season as a starter, Towles did not throw many picks. But all quarterbacks get picked off over the middle. When you throw over the middle, that's the risk. Throwing over the middle requires receivers who run great routes and catch well over the middle. Towles did not have true SEC type tight ends to throw to last year, and his wide receivers were not the type who you would trust to catch the ball in the middle of the field against SEC defenses. Blue was not really an inside receiver. Robinson was tiny. Timmons couldn't catch a cold, and everyone else was a true freshman. With those receivers, it stands to reason that Brown might call more sideline and screen passes than passes in the middle of the field. Besides, many of these plays boiled down to Towles reading and picking out a receiver, which means the choice may have been Towles' decision at least as often as Brown's. It seems to me this is a better explanation than yours. I didn't see much evidence that Brown lacked confidence in Towles.
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